It’s entering that time of the season for separating the men from the boys and we are starting to see some of the usual suspects show their true colours. Man Utd always seem to peak around this time and never know when they are beat when it matters (remember Macheda vs. Villa), in total contrast to the likes of Arsenal who always wilt at the slightest inkling of pressure.
That’s just one reason why I am backing a Rooney-less Man Utd this weekend to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at home against Fulham. Utd quite simply are awesome at home in the league and in the last 2 seasons have played 33, won 29, drawn 2 and lost just once at Old Trafford. Fulham in contrast have lost 17 out of their last 33 away games, including to all of the top 4 and 8 out of the top 10 this season. In terms of margin of victory, Utd have won by 2 or more goals in 19 out of those 29 victories and mostly against bottom half sides (such as Fulham). Team wise – United have the usually rock solid Vidic and Ferdinand partnership back and with the likes of Hernandez, Berbatov, Nani & Valencia should have too much up top.
Another huge value bet appears to be down the M62 at Anfield on Monday night when Liverpool host Man City. Every man and his dog knows City like to keep it tight on the road against the top sides but Liverpool have proven very tough to beat at home, especially since Dalglish took over. City haven’t been great away, drawing at Arsenal and Spurs and losing to United and Chelsea. The odds on 1.85 for Liverpool with a 0 Asian Handicap looks value, especially with stake returned if a draw. I’m sure City will take a point here to help cement the top 4 place that is surely their aim this season – not the title.
My last Main bet is down at the Reebok in a game I fancy a fair few goals in, especially after observing the West Ham defense under pressure in recent months. Both teams have a respective home/away over 2.5 goals record of 60% and have been involved in lots of high scoring games throughout the season. The 1.95 on over 2.5 goals suggests a 51.2% chance, whereas I make it more like 55% – 1.81.
Two further shortlist bets to mention starting at the Stadium of Light as I think the odds on a Sunderland home victory are too big at 2.28 and this to me looks an over-reaction to their poor form of late. At home Sunderland generally win about 45 to 50% of the time but have lost their last home 3 games to Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool – although there is no disgrace in that. West Brom for all their improvement of late are not on the same level as those 3 sides and I would price this closer to 2.1 or 2.15. Very close to being a Main bet but concerned as to the end-of-season slumps that Steve Bruce sides seem to suffer from.
The other shortlist bet is down at Molineux where I think the overs line in another Wolves game is too big again, especially against an injury ravaged Everton side. Both teams have been incredibly inconsistent this season and with Wolves pushing for all three points, could see some goalmouth action here.
Main Bets
1 pt Man Utd (-1) Asian Handicap V Fulham. 1.88 Ladbrokes
1 pt Liverpool (0) Asian Handicap V Man City. 1.85 Pinnacle
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Bolton V West Ham. 1.95 Expekt
Shortlist Bets
1 pt over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Everton. 2.13 5Dimes
1 pt Sunderland to beat West Brom. 2.28 5Dimes/188bet