We have a very competitive looking weekend of Premier League action coming up with 3 big derbies and a crunch game down at White Hart Lane. No doubt all police leave will have been cancelled this weekend!
My strongest bet of the weekend comes up at the Stadium of Light where Sunderland are what looks to be a far too generous 2.23 with 2 bookies to beat Newcastle. Perhaps too much is being made of the 5-1 reverse thrashing but the facts are that the Black Cats have a very strong home record indeed, winning 6, drawing 4 and losing just 1 this season. I’m not at all convinced that Alan Partridge (sorry, Pardew) will be right for the Geordies and I make the home win probability towards a 50% chance, much better than the 44% that the 2.23 odds indicate. The one concern is that Newcastle have been such a Jekyll and Hyde team so it depends what side of bed they all get out of that morning especially. Andy Carroll if not fit will be a big miss as well.
Another team who have made their home ground a bit of a fortress is Spurs who are as big as 2/1 to see off Man Utd on Sunday. Remarkably only Wigan have come away from the Lane with all 3 pts this season and United have won only 2 games on the road, both of which were far from convincing narrow victories at Stoke and West Brom. They seem to have missed Rooney’s usual cut and thrust away this season and are vulnerable down the flanks, especially at right back so Gareth Bale could be key. A draw for me looks likely, followed by a home win so I am taking the +0.25 Asian Handicap on Spurs at 1.78 with 12bet.
These 2 games apart its slim pickings this weekend although I am placing my first bet on Blackpool in the outright match market for this season. West Brom are struggling for quality defensively with a few key players out and could be overwhelmed by Blackpool’s attacking instincts who will be full of confidence after doing the double over Liverpool. A shortlist bet on the Tangerines with a +0.75 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Pinnacle and 188bet is the approach here.
My only other interest this weekend was potentially over at Anfield where Liverpool are a very big looking 2.29 to beat Everton at home. I have passed this over as a bet due to my policy of not betting heavily on teams that have undergone recent changes (such as a new manager). Still Liverpool have a pretty decent record and at 2.29, this indicates a 43.6% chance of victory for the home side, which may offer value. No bet for me but will watch with interest.
Main Bets
1 pt Sunderland to beat Newcastle 2.23 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Spurs (+0.25 AH) V Man Utd. 1.78 12bet/Canbet/SBObet/188bet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Blackpool (+0.75 AH) V West Brom. 1.96 Pinnacle/188bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike