Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips Part 2: Focus On Favourites

Posted on by Dan

In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.

In Part one of our Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips series, we looked at the importance of age. In this article, we look at the importance of betting odds.

For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.  

Grand National 2012 Tip #2: Focus On Favourites

If you were one of the lucky punters to back Mon Mome at 100/1 in 2009, good on you. There’s nothing better than landing a big priced winner. However, it should be noted that since 1997, this has been the only horse to win from the bottom half of the betting order.

Although a big priced winner might be appealing, in pure profit terms, you would have been much better off by focusing on the front end of the betting market in recent years.

Grand National Results by Bookie Starting price rank since 1997. 

ROI is Return On Investment AKA Profit On Turnover. A 17.59% ROI means a £17.59 profit from £100 staked.

A starting price rank of 1-3 means that the horse was either the first, second or third favourite, 4-6 means a fourth to sixth favourite and so on. We can see that the bulk of winners have come from the top end of the market, with a few sporadic winners ranked below 12.

Incredibly, backing all horses between 1 and 9 in the betting order would have produced a profit to Betfair prices since 1997.

The number one favourite (including joint favourites) has won four times historically. Enough to make you a profit of £21 to £1 stakes which is an incredible 85% Return on Investment.

Although you might be attracted by the big prices on offer lower down, focus on the first twelve in the betting order if you want to stand a decent chance of making a profit. The front end is also a good shout for each way betting, especially if your local bookie is paying out five places as they often do for the National.

Horse betting rank: Chance of winning or placing since 1997.

If backing all horses in the top three of the betting order, you have historically had 1/3 chance of your horse at least placing. If backing all horses in the top six of the betting order, you have a 50/50 chance of your horse placing.

By focusing on this end of the market, you stand a good chance of getting a horse to land in the right area.

Summary – Grand National 2012 Tip #2: Focus on favourites

If you want more tips like this, including bets that expert tipsters are following, make sure you download our FREE Grand National 2012 Tips Pack. This pack will also highlight all the horses currently meeting the criteria for the top five tips.

Our expert Grand National 2012 Tips Profit Pack will be published for free on Wednesday 11th April.

To pre-register to receive your exclusive free copy sent to your email address as soon as released, simply fill in the form at http://www.grand-national-tips-2012.com/

Part three coming soon will reveal our second Grand National 2012 tip: Why weights matter. 

Grand National 2012 Tips Series: 

 

 

 

Smart Betting Club. With thanks to Pro Form Professional, an excellent horse racing analysis tool.