“Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics” …So goes the well-known phrase made popular by Mark Twain on how people and often politicians use numbers to push forward weak arguments.
It’s not just politicians who like to bend the truth with numbers, but also tipsters too, with some of the worst culprits using seemingly impressive sounding figures to distort the truth their own way.
Here are just a few claims I received in my spam email account this week from various tipsters….
- “102 points profit so far made in July”
- “£2551 Profit in just 4 days”
- “Earn £800 a week tax-free per week”
The problem with each of these claims is that they only discuss profit without any context, rendering them completely useless.
Yes you might have made 102 points profit in July, but how did the 12 months prior to that perform? It’s not much use if the first 6 months of the year lost 200 points is it?
Even if the service in question has a long-term profitable record (unlikely as its spam!) then how much money did they risk to make those 102 points profit?
After all, you wouldn’t want to be risking £200,000 to make that £800 a week would you? The tipster equivalent of using a sledgehammer to crack a nut!
Why Betting Bank Growth Is So Key
So how exactly can you weigh up how valuable a tipster really is?
Well, one of the best methods we advocate is working out its Return on Capital (ROC) or Betting Bank Growth.
This is a very effective calculation as it tells you how much your initial money will grow over a period of time.
Simply quoting 102 points profit means nothing, but 102% ROC – well that would indicate you have more than doubled your betting bank!
Here are a few examples to explain further…
Tipster A makes 50% ROC in a 6 month period
– If following their tips with £2000 at the very start, you would now have a £1000 profit
Tipster B makes a 150% ROC over the course of a football season
– If following their tips with £5000 at the very start, you would now have a £7500 profit
Tipster C makes a 300% ROC over a 2 year period
– If following their tips with £1000 at the very start, you would now have a £3000 profit
ROC AND ROLL!
For my money, working out the ROC or Return on Capital for any tipster often supersedes many other calculations, including the oft-quoted Return on Investment (ROI)
ROI works out how much you have to stake to make your profit and whilst important, it is often overshadowed by ROC.
For a classic example of why this is the case, it’s worth looking at the stats from 1 of the 4 top football services we reviewed in the latest SBC Magazine. Below you can see their full stats from all the bets they tipped during the 2013/14 football season..
Now at first glance, this might not seem too impressive, with only a 5.1% ROI and 86.9 pts profit from 1692 bets. Nothing to see there, move along…
Yet, you would be wrong to ignore them and you will see why when I add in the ROC figures below:
Due to the relatively high strike-rate and our suggested bank size, the ROC calculation comes in at 108.6% for the entire season – more than doubling your money if following.
I don’t know about you but if I could guarantee my betting bank would double every season, I would snap your hands off!
One Size Does Not Fit All
Despite all the above, you do need to be very careful when it comes to working out your betting bank sizes as some tipsters do not have a clue on what to advise!
I have seen a number of examples where a tipster has claimed huge ROC, yet clearly have far too small a betting bank suggestion. So small, that if following you would go bust long before any profit is made.
All of this is why, here at SBC we set our own betting bank sizes for EVERY tipster we review, using a special simulator we developed to help calculate the optimum suggestion.
This simulator runs all the stats for every tipster thousands of times to arrive at a suggested betting bank figure for each one.
Some tipsters don’t like this as we sometimes have to recommend different betting bank sizes to their own, which in turn might make their profit figures look worse.
Their ire matters little to us though as the key as ever is to produce fair, accurate betting bank suggestions for our members that offers them the best chance for sustainable profits.
Sign-Up Today And Find The Most ROC-king Tipsters
If interested in finding out more on not just the tipsters achieving the best ROC or bank growth, make sure you check out our regularly published Tipster Profit Reports.
In each one you can view comparative tables on the best performing (and most ROCking!) tipsters, their advised bank sizes and who is making the most bang for your buck.
For those of you keen to understand how betting banks work, we also have a full guide available in the7-part Pro Gambler Blueprint available as a bonus gift to new subscribers.
All of this is available to you the instant you join us at the Smart Betting Club.