Welcome to our first column from Peter Cousins and the team of chase racing experts from the Chasemaster tipster service.
For the past 3 years, Chasemaster have been making serious profits backing and laying in specialist chase races and each fortnight on the SBC Blog he will be sharing some of the secrets of his success.
Hi, Peter from Chasemaster here with the first of a hopefully fortnightly blog. Our expertise as the name suggests relates to chase racing and we’ll be looking back at a number of races, which will hopefully throw up some good priced winners.
It’s important to understand that this is not a “horses to follow” list to be blindly backed. We won’t know the circumstances of entries but we will try and indicate future required conditions to make the horse a value bet.
The headline will give you some idea of one of the methods we use and it is certainly true that not all horses are trying 100% to win each race. Let me explain why and how we can use this to good effect in the betting markets…
Getting To Know The Horses And Trainers
One of the advantages of concentrating on chasers is that you get to know the horses and trainers over a number of years.
Horses will generally improve over the first few years and then have reached their optimum. We are generally looking for older horses that for a variety of reasons have been underperforming recently and seen their handicap mark drop. These horses do not have to reach new heights to win, merely repeat previous deeds. Of course as horses get older some will have had enough and not be capable of repeating old form so we cannot blindly back “well handicapped” horses.
We will be concentrating on those horses that have shown signs of a return to form, or the trainer’s entries and methods suggest a return to form is imminent.
Back in the Dark Ages, Nick Mordin published a successful system where you basically backed any Jenny Pitman trained chaser when it first ran three miles or further, or when it was raised at least four furlongs in distance from its previous run.
Jenny specialised in long distance chasers who generally lacked the pace to win short chases. Her method was basically schooling in public, but who would have been brave enough to challenge this?!
Horses can be run over the wrong distance, wrong going or raced in an unfamiliar style to get them fully fit and their handicap down.
The new insane whip rules will also play a part, especially with a horse like Fongoli who has raced twice recently and now is a cracking lay in almost any race. She has ability, but needs constant rousing up. Brendan Powell has done his best with just two reminders and constant shaking of the reins but that will never be enough for this horse. We have probably only one or two more chances to lay her in single figures, but they should be taken. Another horse who will have similar problems is Justabout.
A more conventional horse to follow is Et Maintenant. Patently not race fit, he led for a circuit at Hexham recently before fading. With possibly three to four weeks break, he would be about right and we will look out for his entries.
Another horse to watch for is Baaher. This horse returned in late September and just had a stroll round at the back at Perth. He then ran at Kelso and managed third, staying on well from the last. He has a great handicap mark and should be entered soon with a winning chance.
Drybrook Bedouin returned from a break last Saturday at Wincanton in the Desert Orchid Chase. Never a factor, this looked all over a prep race. Expect entries shortly where he could be a live contender.
Finally for this first blog, Otage De Brion, who ran on Saturday at Stratford. This was actually a Chasemaster selection, together with eventual winner Lord Ryeford. The theory was that he would try and do this from the front which would unsettle Bold Perk and hopefully leave the race between him trying to hold on and Lord Ryeford staying on through the pack. It didn’t quite work out that way with Otage De Brion being settled at the back and never put in the race.
Watch for entries over the next couple of weeks and hope when your money goes down he is trying 100% and will try and lead from pillar to post!
Chasemaster run a daily tipster service, which since September 2008 has produced a return on investment of 15.43% from over 1240 bets. You can follow their advice for as little as £1.10 a day this chase racing season at https://smartbettingclub.com/chasemaster.html