Month: July 2010

Castrol ratings for July 3rd

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

Here’s the update on the results of recent matches:

1. Holland vs Slovakia: Holland -1: Refund
2. Brazil vs Chile: Brazil -1. -1.
3. Paraguay vs Japan: Japan to qualify @ 2.65. -1, but great value bet.
4. Spain vs Portugal. No bet
5. Holland vs Brazil. Holland +0.5 1.98 SBObet +0.98. Excellent value call by Castrol ratings.
6. Uruguay vs Ghana: Uruguay to qualify @ 1.53. +0.53. Although a winning bet, Ghana clearly deserved to win this and I feel the ratings were way out here.

Running total: +8.7 points from 26 points staked.

The Castrol ratings for Saturday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Argentina vs Germany

Argentina : 52% Chance -> Value odds: 1.92-> Best odds 1.74 188 bet
Germany: 48% Chance -> Value odds: 2.08-> Best odds 2.25 Stan James

Argentina to shade it according to Castrol, but it could be a closer match than the odds compilers are pricing up. Germany’s best odds of 2.25 imply a 44% chance vs the 48% chance predicted by Castrol. Is that enough of an edge?

Germany +0.5 is 1.82 with SBObet and Germany Draw no bet is 2.37 with Bet Chronicle. The Draw No Bet seems to offer the best odds so that will go down as the value bet.

2. Paraguay vs Spain

Paraguay: 33% Chance -> Value odds: 3.03-> Best odds 5.30 Bet Chronicle
Spain: 76% Chance -> Value odds: 1.31-> Best odds 1.21 Blue Sq.

No value in Spain at 1.21 according to Castrol ratings. The Paraguay +1 handicap is 2.03 seems more likely than Paraguay qualifying so that’s the value bet here.

Castrol ratings for July 2nd

Posted on by Dan

Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:

A bit late in posting these, but luckily I wrote down the ratings and odds the other day.

The Castrol ratings for Friday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.

Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties

1. Holland vs Brazil

Holland: 44% Chance -> Value odds: 2.27-> Best odds 2.70 Blue Sq
Brazil: 56% Chance -> Value odds: 1.79-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James.

Castrol give Holland just a 44% chance of winning, but that’s the value bet with the best odds of 2.70 implying just a 37% chance. Certainly little value in backing Brazil at 1.53. For this match I prefer the Holland +0.5 Handicap at 1.98 with SBObet.

2. Uruguay vs Ghana

Uruguay : 73% Chance -> Value odds: 1.37-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James
Ghana: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70-> Best odds 2.63

The bookmakers rightly favour Uruguay according to Castrol, but are being too generous with the odds on Uruguay. Uruguay to qualify at 1.53 is the value bet.

Have you ever made a drunken bet like this?

Posted on by Dan

Ever woken up hungover to find you’d wagered a few quid on something daft like Wayne Rooney to win pipesmoker of the year? Or maybe even something more ridiculous such as England to win the World Cup??!

Well if you have, I hope the damage wasn’t as bad as this guy who must have had one hell of a hangover the next day. Stephen Perkins was banned from his job as broker after drunkenly gambling trading on the price of oil at 2AM. His inebriated trades were so large that they accounted for nearly 70% of the day’s trading volume, pushing oil to a record high at the time.

I know one online poker player who earned a pretty penny by only playing around midnight at weekends – when British guys came home from the pub and fancied a few drunken hands of poker.

Mike always talks with amazement about how in Australia they have betting terminals in pubs, allowing you to risk a fortune on some drunken bet. Its small wonder there is such a gambling problem down under!

The bookies always welcome these sort of mindless & drunken wagers with open arms. I would imagine Friday and Saturday night are peak betting times for markets such as Paddy Power’s Elvis World Cup (I kid you not). Betting for fun or interest might seem harmless if using small stakes, but more often than not its money down the drain, especially when indulging in a few light refreshments.

Alcohol and betting have always been uneasy bedfellows, so if in doubt dont bet!