In this article, the analysts from the excellent Form Lab Black software help us preview the big Derby games this weekend.
Newly promoted Southampton are two points clear at the top of the Championship after 10 games, whilst fellow new boys Brighton and relegated West Ham are also in the top five. Further down the English football ladder both Preston and Crawley have got off to excellent starts and sit in the top three in League One and League Two respectively, whilst Braintree Town lie near the top of the Conference.
Elsewhere in Europe, four of the top five teams in the Spanish Segunda (their second division) are either promoted or relegated teams, whilst Brescia who dropped out of Serie A last year, occupy third in Serie B, and Eintracht Frankfurt and St Pauli have responded to their relegations to Bundesliga 2 with excellent starts.
How likely was this?
To anticipate these teams’ progress we have analysed other fast starting promoted and relegated teams across the three lower leagues in England, the Conference, and in Segunda, Serie B, Ligue 2, and Bundesliga 2 since 2003/04. When assessing fast starting teams we have looked at teams that have averaged at least two points per game for either the first six of first 10 games.
There have been 77 teams who have earned at least 12 points from their opening six games, as has been the case for the three relegated teams in Segunda – Almeria, Hercules and Deportivo – and promoted CE Sabadell, while relegated Brescia have taken 16 points from their opening eight games in Serie B.
Teams averaging 2 or more Points Per Game (PPG) at Week 6
| Teams | No Teams | Back weeks 7-11 P/L | Back Games 12-16 P/L | Back Opponents weeks 7-11 P/L | Back Opps weeks 12-16 |
| Promoted | 29 | -3.3% | -29.4% | -23.4% | -8.8% |
| Relegated | 48 | -5.4% | -19.5% | -16.1% | +0.9% |
| All | 77 | -4.6% | -23.2% | -18.9% | -2.7% |
What we are seeing is a short term run of form then a clear drop off….
Backing these teams in each of their next five games gives a 3.3% loss (odds based on an average from several bookies) which could probably have been turned into a slight profit by taking best prices. However, in the following five games these teams have tended to struggle and backing their opponents would have resulted in just a 2.7% loss.
In total 31% of their next 10 games (weeks 7-16) have ended in draws which would have given a slight profit and the best strategy would have been to lay the promoted and relegated teams’ opponents in the five weeks after week six and then lay the teams themselves in the five weeks after that.
Teams averaging 2 or more Points Per Game (PPG) at Week 10
| Teams | No Teams | Back weeks 11-15 P/L | Back Games 16-20 P/L | Back Opponents weeks 11-15 P/L | Back Opps weeks 16-20 |
| Promoted | 14 | -23.4% | -2.1% | -25.3% | -13.0% |
| Relegated | 34 | -12.8% | -5.3% | -20.7% | -20.8% |
| All | 48 | -15.9% | -4.4% | -22.0% | -18.5% |
Right now Southampton, Crawley, E. Frankfurt and St Pauli have all played at least 10 games and are averaging two points per game or more.
Interestingly we see that promoted and relegated teams who have had an extended excellent start have then suffered a dip in weeks 11-15 and it would have been most profitable to lay them in this situation. However, they then shown an upturn in the following five weeks (16-20), when it would have been profitable to lay their opponents.
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