In this article, the analysts at the Smart Betting Club delve into the stats to unearth the top five Grand National 2012 tips for finding a winner in the big race.
In Part two of our Top Five Grand National 2012 Tips series, we looked at the importance of the Starting Price. In this article, we look at the importance of the handicap weight.
For more top Grand National 2012 tips including bets from expert tipsters, make sure you check out the FREE SBC Grand National 2012 tips package.
Grand National 2012 Tip #3: Not too heavy, not too light.
The Grand National is a handicap race which means that each horse will be carrying a certain weight to supposedly even out the contest. In theory the heaviest weight goes on the most able horse and the lightest weight goes on the least able, but in practice it doesn’t always work out like this thanks to some clever race timing by some trainers after the formal weights are announced.
The current favourite Synchronised is an impressive horse, but is carrying the heaviest weight of 11 stone 10 pounds as a handicap. Will this be too much of a burden for the Gold Cup winner? Unfortunately history is not on its side…
The following table shows the performance of horses by their weight rank. “Ranked 1-5” means the horses was given one of the heaviest weights, e.g. Synchronised is ranked number one presently. Rank 36-40 means the horse was given one of the lightest handicaps. You can check the horses in handicap weight order on the Racing Post website.
Grand National Results by Handicap Weight Rank since 1997.
ROI is Return On Investment AKA Profit On Turnover. A 17.59% ROI means a £17.59 profit from £100 staked.
When it comes to weights, it seems that the heaviest weightings may be more of a hindrance than they should be, just as the lightest 31st to 40th weights do no offer enough of an advantage. Since 1997, there hasn’t been a single winner from horses carrying the top weights.
From the current set of horses, this is potentially bad news for:
- Synchronised (11-10)
- Ballabriggs (11-9)
- Midnight Chase (11-8)
- Weird Al (11-8)
Past winners have tended to carry weights at the heavier end of the scale, just not the top five heaviest. Backing horses with the 6th to 20th heaviest weights seems to offer a nice sweet spot with 11 winners found in this category and an overall profits to Betfair prices.
This isn’t to say that Synchronised or another heavily weighted horse can’t buck the trend, the sample size for this is fairly low, but it is certainly something to keep in mind when drawing up your National shortlist.
Summary – Grand National 2012 Tip #3: Be wary of backing horsed carrying the heaviest weights.
If you want more tips like this, including bets that expert tipsters are following, make sure you download our FREE Grand National 2012 Tips Pack. This pack will also highlight all the horses currently meeting the criteria for the top five tips.
Our expert Grand National 2012 Tips Profit Pack will be published for free on Wednesday 11th April.
To pre-register to receive your exclusive free copy sent to your email address as soon as released, simply fill in the form at http://www.grand-national-tips-2012.com/
Part four coming soon will reveal our second Grand National 2012 tip: Jocker & Trainer trends.
Grand National 2012 Tips Series:
- Part 1: The Right Age.
- Part 2: Focus On Favourites.
Smart Betting Club. With thanks to Pro Form Professional, an excellent horse racing analysis tool.