The Transfer Insider Betting Column 8th July

Things really are starting to heat up in the transfer market now and a lot of deals seem to be happening, finally.  Liverpool have all but sealed a deal for Blackpool’s Charlie Adam, believed to be worth around £9million.  Strangely opinion seems to be divided over Adam’s transfer, some think the Reds are paying over the odds for the Scot and have questioned whether he will be as effective at Anfield as he was at Bloomfield Road.

This is a question that can only be answered once the season is underway but personally I think it is a decent bit of business from Kenny Dalglish.  The 25-year-old Scotland international clearly has the ability to play top-flight football and even when his form dipped slightly following the January transfer window he was still the best player in the Seasiders’ team by some distance.  Adam’s range of passing hugely impressed me last season and he is also clearly a genuine dead ball specialist.

Cole Not Dole?

Adam’s arrival at Anfield will probably see the likes of Joe Cole and possibly Raul Meireles move on.  There has been talk of a loan move to West Ham for Cole but in all honesty this is pretty unlikely, unless he takes the Craig Bellamy approach.

QPR have been credited with an interest and they will need to find someone to replace Adel Taarabt, if indeed he is on the move. Spurs boss Harry Redknapp, who formerly nurtured Joe Cole at Upton Park, is a big fan and the midfield misfit is just 2/5 to move to White Hart Lane with Skybet, while QPR are 9/4 to snap him up.  Raul Meireles impressed last season at Anfield but he is not one of Dalglish’s buys and Inter Milan are expected to launch a £12m move at some point, probably once they’ve sold Wesley Sneijder to Manchester United. You’d have to assume Liverpool will almost certainly accept that kind of deal.

Liverpool have also picked up Jordan Henderson from Sunderland, which has initiated a bit of a spending spree from the Wearsiders, which leads me on to…

Sunderland…..Six Signed and Counting.

I had decided to change the format but Sunderland have brought in so many new faces already they deserve an individual mention segment all to themselves.  Boss Steve Bruce has already added goalkeeper Keiren Westwood, winger Sebastian Larsson, midfielder Craig Gardner, striker Ji Dong-Won, defender Wes Brown and winger Connor Wickham to his squad ahead of the new season, and it looks as if John O’Shea is set to join Brown at the Stadium of Light as well, following a medical.

Sunderland are an ambitious club but they still need a striker to replace Darren Bent, as South Korean 20-year-old Dong-Won remains untested in the Premier League.  At present, no names are really cropping up but that doesn’t mean Bruce isn’t actively seeking a new frontman.  Sunderland are also set to secure Blackpool’s ex-Crewe and Real Sociedad midfielder David Vaughan on a free transfer, after West Brom pulled out of the race, in what would be a great bit of business if it comes off. The transfer merry-go-round will inevitably see a few headed to the exit at The Stadium of Light with Scotland keeper Craig Gordon purportedly on the radar of Celtic.

The Black Cats have their sights set on European football but personally, despite the spending, I reckon that could be out of their reach.  If you do fancy them to challenge at the top end of the Premier League they’re a best priced 10/1 with Boylesports to win the league without the ‘big six’, as I say I don’t think they will finish the best of the rest – but I’m not a proven tipster.

I’ll leave Sunderland alone and move on to Arsenal, where boss Arsene Wenger certainly faces a couple of big decisions this summer.  The Gunners seem to have accepted the fact that key men Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri are heading for the exit this summer, with Fabregas Barcelona bound and Nasri probably heading for Man City.  However, there have been reports that Barca will wait until the end of the window to try and force Arsenal’s hand to seal the best deal – which is a scenario I can see happening, not least because Wenger is keenest to sell Nasri abroad, rather than to a rival.  Incidentally, the Gunners title odds haven’t actually altered that much despite all the talk about the duo leaving, they were a best priced 8.80 with Betfair when I began this column and now they’re 9/1 with William Hill and Stan James.  I’m not sure they can win the league next year, it all depends on Wenger’s own successes in the transfer market, but if I were planning to have a flutter on Arsenal I would hold fire, as their price could drift further if Nasri and Fabregas both leave and Wenger takes his time bringing in replacements. So far Gervinho (Lille) and Charlton defender Carl Jenkinson look like the two key additions – at time of writing.

Lille’s Likely Lad

Gervinho, is one of those modern enigmas as a forward player without portfolio. Neither a winger nor a conventional front-man, the Ivorian is best seen cutting in from the right in Lille’s trademark 4-3-3, where he was utilised as ‘an auxiliary striker’. He scored 15 goals and provided 10 assists for Lille this season despite being overshadowed by his more flamboyant colleague Eden Hazard. That has to be considered a decent return for the former Le Mans man. Quick , tall and with good presence, Gervinho looks like the ideal signing on paper – as his goal stats suggest. However, as the kind of player who apparently delighted and dismayed Lille’s support in equal measure he seems like he will fit in well at Arsenal – he is a player that makes things happen (both good and bad). Arsenal seems like a natural fit given the dominant French culture at the club and the Gunners also seem like the next natural step up career-wise after two seasons at the Stade Lille-Metropole. The key questions will be can the 24-year-old Gervinho adapt to a new culture, a new club (with its added pressures) and also a new style of play after pretty much having everything run his way at Lille. Robert Pires provides a positive precedent but Marouane Chamakh arrived at The Emirates from Bordeaux last summer with greater fanfare and a superior reputation only to make little impression in his debut season in North London. A fee of £12m or so could also prove to be a high price to pay for a striker, in the final year of his contract, who still has much to prove.

Owen’s Goal

To complicate matters even further for Wenger the Gunners have been handed an ultimatum by Bolton regarding Gary Cahill.  The Wanderers have apparently given Arsenal a 10 day deadline to sign the England international defender, who will cost around £17million.  I’m not sure how effective this will be, as rumours from the Reebok suggest Cahill has his heart set on a switch to the Emirates and boss Owen Coyle is unlikely to go against his wishes. Even if  the nominal deadline passes and Cahill still hasn’t joined Arsenal I wouldn’t be rushing to put money on the defender NOT ending up in  north London.

In this close season of player trading, Bolton are keen to sell Cahill quickly in order to reinvest the money raised back into their own squad.  Owen Coyle’s men are being linked with plenty of targets but they won’t have a massive budget, even if/when Cahill is sold. Incidentally boss Owen Coyle claims the Cahill ‘saga’ has no significance in regards to his own targets – personally I doubt this.  It sounds like the bluster of a man determined to convey the impression that he won’t be bullied. Coyle has revealed he would like to sign Man City misfit Shaun Wright-Phillips, but wages could prove a stumbling block, and it would appear as if Rodrigo, who spent last season on loan at the Reebok, could be close to sealing a permanent move from Benfica.  If Rodrigo does move back to Bolton that could end any interest in Wright-Phillips, as it would leave Bolton well staffed on the right side of midfield.  Middlesbrough starlets Seb Hines and Rhys Williams are also on Coyle’s shopping list, with Boro in need to sell to raise funds for their own targets.

And The Rest…

Spurs have told Luka Modric he won’t be sold following an unsuccessful bid from Chelsea, which may well be the end of that particular drama this summer as the Blues will not be held to ransom and Modric appears resigned to sticking at White Hart Lane – he doesn’t seem the type to stamp his feet and demand a move either.

Manchester City striker Carlos Tevez has told the club he wants to leave, in no uncertain terms, and this could be a long and drawn out affair.  City have no need to sell and they’ve slapped a £50million price tag on the Argentine international’s head, which prices him out of the market for all but the very richest of suitors.  Tevez’s reasons for wanting to leave Eastlands are apparently family orientated and it seems he wants a return to South America, but whether anyone can match the asking price from either Argentina or Brazil remains to be seen.  Boca Juniors are 9/2 with Skybet to secure Tevez, or a much more attractive 12/1 with bet365.  However, a move to either Spain or Italy seems much more likely and Real Madrid are the 11/10 favourites with Skybet to snap up the City star, the best price is 11/4 with bet365 – so clearly no-one is nailing their colours to the mast over this move.

Another player heading for the City exit is Craig Bellamy, Celtic are the favourites at 6/4 with Skybet to sign the Welshman but boss Neil Lennon has downplayed his chances of sealing a deal.  It looks like Bellamy is merely using the leverage of Celtic’s interest to manufacture a move nearer home. Stoke have also been tipped to make a move and Potters chairman Peter Coates doesn’t mind splashing out from time to time and Stoke are 20/1 to capture Bellamy.  The player himself has stated on a number of occasions that he would welcome a return to Cardiff after failing to help them win promotion last season, doubts remain as to whether a deal can be done but the Bluebirds are 5/2 with Skybet to bring the forward back to the Cardiff City Stadium. Bellamy may be something of a spent force at this stage of his career but given the option of a free bet on him ending up at Stoke or back at Cardiff I’d markedly prefer the former, given the prices and the change of manager in the Welsh capital.

Talking of Celtic, rumours suggest that The Hoops have their hearts set on courting Jay Bothroyd as their primary target. Why they’d persevere with chasing a player whose utterances and body language suggest he has no interest in coming to Glasgow (barring no better offers) is beyond me. More likely Celtic will end up with their Hobson’s Choice the Norwegian Erik Huseklepp, with Bari keen to sell. Meanwhile two of last season’s signings, the Dutchman Jos Hooiveld and the Dane Morten Rasmussen are kicking their heels in Glasgow, out of favour, while their teammates are in Australia on a preseason tour. Given Glasgow’s Old Firm divide, Rasmussen a player known as Duncan (as a homage to the former Rangers’ striker Duncan Ferguson) and sold by agents to Celtic as ‘The Danish Kris Boyd’ was probably always on a hiding to nothing at Parkhead.

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Deal Summary: 

Here is a brief table of completed deals, it may not be a 100% accurate at time of publishing but should prove a useful reference tool.

Arsenal:

IN:

OUT:  Gael Clichy (£7m, Manchester City)

Aston Villa:

IN: Alex McLeish (manager), Nathan Delfouneso (loan return, Burnley)

OUT: Gerard Houllier (manager), Brad Friedel (Free, Spurs), Ashley Young (£15m, Manchester United)

Blackburn:

IN:

OUT: Phil Jones (£17.5m, Manchester United), Frank Fielding  (undisc, Derby)

Bolton:

IN: Daniel Ward (loan return), Darren Pratley (free, Swansea)

OUT: Johan Elmander (free, Galatasaray), Rodrigo Moreno (loan return, Benfica), Daniel Sturridge (loan return, Chelsea), Tamir Cohen, Jlloyd Samuel, Joey O’Brien (all released), Ali Al Habsi (£4m, Wigan).

Chelsea:

IN: Andre Villas-Boas (manager)

OUT: Carlo Ancelotti (manager), Michael Mancienne (undisc, Hamburg), Jeffrey Bruma (loan, Hamburg)

Everton:

IN:

OUT: James Vaughan (£2.5m, Norwich)

Fulham:

IN: Martin Jol (manager)

OUT: Mark Hughes (manager), Diomansy Kamara (free, Eskisehirspor), Kagisho Dikgacoi (undisc, Crystal Palace),               Eddie Johnson , Matthew Saunders, Pascal Zuberbuhler , Zoltan Gera , John Pantsil (all released).

Liverpool:

IN: Jordan Henderson (Sunderland, £20m), Charlie Adam (£9m, Blackpool)

OUT: Nikola Saric (released)

Manchester City:

IN: Stefan Savic (undisc, FK Partizan), Gael Clichy (£7m, Arsenal)

OUT:

Manchester United:

IN: Phil Jones (£17.5m, Blackburn), Ashley Young (£15m, Aston Villa),

OUT: Owen Hargreaves (released), Paul Scholes, Edwin van der Sar (both retired), Ritchie de Laet (loan, Norwich), Wes Brown (Sunderland)

Newcastle United:

IN: Sylvain Marveaux (free, Rennes), Demba Ba (free, West Ham), Yohan Cabaye (undisc, Lille)

OUT: Kevin Nolan (£4m, West Ham)

Norwich City:

IN: Steve Morison (£2.5m, Millwall), Elliot Bennett (Brighton), James Vaughan (£2.5m, Everton) Bradley Johnson (free, Leeds), Ritchie de Laet (loan, Manchester United).

OUT: Matthew Gill (free, Bristol Rovers),

QPR:

IN:

OUT:

Stoke City:

IN:

OUT: Abdoulaye Faye (free, West Ham)

Sunderland:

IN: Keiren Westwood (free, Coventry), Sebastian Larsson (free, Birmingham), Craig Gardner (£5m, Birmingham), Connor Wickham (£8.1m, Ipswich), Ji Dong-Won (Chunnam Dragons), Wes Brown (Manchester United)

OUT: Jordan Henderson (£20m, Liverpool), David Healy (free, Rangers)

Swansea City:

IN: Danny Graham (£3.5m, Watford), Steven Caulker (loan, Spurs)

OUT: Dorus de Vries (free, Wolves), Darren Pratley (free, Bolton)

Tottenham Hotspur:

IN: Brad Friedel (Free, Aston Villa)

OUT: Steven Caulker (loan, Swansea), Jonathan Woodgate (released), Jamie O’Hara (£5m, Wolves)

West Brom:

IN: Billy Jones (free, Preston), Gareth McAuley (free, Ipswich)

OUT: Abdoulate Meite (free, Dijon), Scott Carson (undisc, Bursaspor), Ryan Allsop (undisc, Millwall)

Wigan:

IN: Mauro Boselli (loan return), Ali Al Habsi (£4m, Bolton)

OUT: Tom Cleverley (loan return, Manchester United)

Wolves:

IN: Dorus De Vries (Free, Swansea), Jamie O’Hara (£5m, Wolves)

OUT: