This weeks column from Scott of The Sportsman service came in a bit too late to appear in Fridays Weekend Wager email so we have posted it below. Enjoy!
“Play Your Cards Right”
A huge game within the context of Scottish football takes place in Glasgow this weekend as Celtic and Rangers put their 100% league winning records on the line.
The layers are going to make few if any mistakes in a big match like this as they will have covered all bases but let’s see if any angle can be found for profit. Match prices are the first starting point. As far as I know and contrary to popular folklore the layers don’t offer different prices in Glasgow shops depending on what side of the city you reside in. Celtic I had pencilled in at 6-4 and they are a little shorter at a best current price of 11-8. The surprise for me is that Rangers are available at 5-2 in place. A slice of that price could find you in an advantageous trading position especially after the away sides decent performance midweek against Valencia.
Just two matches out of the last eleven have finished 0-0 and if you fancy goals to be scored one avenue to consider is laying 0-0 at half time around 2.2 if you can obtain that price. With regards to the overs and under’s the last 14 matches have generated only 31 goals, an average of 2.21 per match. The one area I will be keen to see prices on is the bookings market. I would suggest if you can get over 55 booking points on any bookmakers who price up early at around evens then you have found yourself value.
In the Glasgow area this match has the feeling of the biggest match between the two for years – a powder-keg ready to explode. The average total bookings points over three seasons at Celtic Park is 84. It’s notable over the same time period that Rangers have picked up most bookings in all six matches averaging 55 bookings points to Celtic’s 29 – quite a difference. Player to be booked anytime is also worthy of consideration and David Weir, Rangers captain has been booked in three of the six matches he has played in, making him around an even money chance, Skybet go 9-4.For a bigger price Rangers striker Steven Naismith has been cautioned three times at Celtic Park in the three matches he has participated in over the last three seasons. He has got to be worth a shot of going in the book again at 11-2.
Match arbiter Willie Collum has not refereed any Old Firm match within the time period looked at, but this season in the SPL has issued an average of 38.75 bookings points including eight yellows in the game between St Mirren and Hamilton so can be handy with his cards. At this stage then bets to look out for are bookings points totals, the away side to collect bookings supremacy and smaller plays on Weir and Naismith of Rangers going in the book.
Recommended to Sportsman members:- 0.05 pts Naismith booked anytime @ 11-2 & 0.05 pts Weir booked anytime @ 9-4 with Skybet. Look out for other layers prices going up as undoubtedly Skybet won’t stand those odds.