Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.
Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.
This week Scott picks apart the runners and riders in Saturdays St Leger, where he is looking beyond the 6/4 favourite Sea Moon and siding with Frankie Dettori’s mount Blue Bunting. He also unveils the horse to watch mentioned in Mondays column, which runs at Chester on the weekend and if drawn well, is expected to do the business.
Doncaster plays host to a mouthwatering Saturday card which includes three group races though undoubtedly the biggest betting extravaganza will be the St Leger Stakes. The beauty of the St Leger is the fairness of the Doncaster track meaning invariably the best horse wins over the one mile six furlong trip.
This year’s race has nine runners with Sea Moon trading as favourite at a best priced 6-4. Michael Stoute’s colt is a deserving favourite though his price is short enough. Sea Moon ran a tremendous race at York in the Great Voltigeur on only his fourth career outing hammering the opposition by eight lengths. The whispers before that race suggested this horse was the real deal and he verified those claims. My major concern for Saturday is the Voltigeur race may have taken a lot out of the youngster given it was only three and a half weeks ago. At odds of 6-4 there are other question marks to consider before lumping on him. The forecast for ground on the firmer side of good won’t be advantageous to his cause with Sea Moon preferring the softer side of good. Throw in Michael Stoute’s poor season by his own lofty standards and the fact that the form from York has not been overly reliable with winning distances looking exaggerated by the track’s dead ground and I’m inclined to look elsewhere.
Sheikh Mohammed’s St Leger Knowhow
Who provides the alternative value then? I’m not a big fan of backing fillies as regular readers will know believing they are generally more inconsistent than their male counterparts, but Blue Bunting appeals at 4-1 each-way with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power and Coral. Godolphin’s charge has recorded five wins from six career runs and importantly looks an out and out stayer. Stable mate Rumh will be employed as a pacemaker and Frankie Dettori sits on top the second favourite. Blue Bunting has won at Doncaster before, recorded solid times on the stopwatch on good ground and the weight she receives from the other horses with her sex allowance could prove vital. Owner Sheikh Mohammed watched Blue Bunting’s most recent gallop and had a glint in his eye afterwards. This is a man who knows what it takes to win the St Leger with a filly having done so with the inimitable Oh So Sharp.
Census is third favourite in the market and very progressive. Richard Hannon’s horse has faced fellow contender Brown Panther twice with the score sitting at one win apiece. Richard Hughes has shown typical family loyalty by opting to ride Census despite having won last time out on Sea Moon. With the Hughes and Hannon partnership on fire and stamina and ground type not being an issue Census holds decent claims.
Brown Panther owned by Michael Owen looked a Leger horse when rattling up a hat-trick of wins at Chester, Haydock and Royal Ascot. With Kieran Fallon on board he is currently twice the price of Census which seems a tad generous given their one-one score-line against each other. Brown Panther may not have reached the ceiling of his ability though his rating of 115 suggests he may come up a little short in his quest to reach the winner’s enclosure.
Aidan O’Brien is represented by Seville who was thrashed ten lengths by Sea Moon in the Great Voltiguer having been sent off an odds-on favourite. The predicted firmer ground will suit Seville this time and although he won’t go down again by such a large margin, his profile suggests he is too inconsistent to bet on with confidence.
The wily John Gosden is bidding for his fourth St Leger win with his representative Masked Marvel. The colt was found wanting in the Derby but if he can hit his best form he can go close. There is plenty of positivity in the Gosden Camp and Masked Marvel’s form has been given a boost with his Sussex Downs runner-up Namibian subsequently winning two Group 3 races at Ascot and Goodwood, though others are preferred.
Of the remaining, Genius Beast finished fourth in the Great Voltigeur and has the engine to handle the trip though would have to find 8lb on previous form to triumph. Rumh’s job is simply to act as pacemaker and Buthelezi should offer his owners a good social occasion.
In conclusion Sea Moon is a deserved favourite but every horse has its price and 6-4 isn’t mine. I’m going for the female interloper Blue Bunting to serve it up to her male adversaries on Saturday and she gets the each-way nod at 4-1.
Back Free Zone If Drawn Well
In Monday’s column I mentioned a horse who is expected to do the business at Chester on Saturday. Should “Free Zone” gets a decent draw which is required over five and half furlongs at this tightest of tracks then his homework suggests he can win this Class 3 Nursery. Bryan Smart’s progressive youngster may also be worth backing in the Two-Year-Old Trophy Listed Race should he take up that engagement at Redcar on the 1st of October.
Scott’s service is one of the many racing and sporting tipsters that we monitor and recommend at the Smart Betting Club.