Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.
Scott is a relatively new addition to the SBC family but already he is proving a popular addition – not least for his racing trading strategy as shared with members in recent SBC magazines.
Each Friday, Scott will be providing us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action, the horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events.
Scott is a proven racing expert, thanks to his work at www.thesportsman.org.uk. Scott is renowned for possessing a keen eye for racing value, especially in the big feature races where he generally excels.
This week he takes in Saturday’s two feature races at Newbury and poses the question: Can Kieran Fallon really win the jockey’s championship in the wake of an injury to Ryan Moore?
This weekend’s racing provides us with Group races and a renowned handicap before we head to the Knavesmire next week and York’s crackerjack Ebor meeting.
On Saturday at Newbury we have the CGA Geoffrey Freer Stakes at 3.05 followed by another Class 1 in the shape of the Hungerford Stakes. The Hungerford Stakes was originally held on Newbury’s left-handed course over the same distance of today’s seven furlongs as a Group 3 event but was re-classified to a Group 2 in 2002 when changing to the straight track. So, beware the change of track when looking at historical records for clues to the race.
The two horses I like in the Hungerford Stakes are Excelebration and Musir.
Excelebration is Marco Botti’s stable star having run a great race back in April this year when tested against such luminaries as Frankel and Strong Suit. Far from disgracing himself Excelebration finished second, priced 25-1 and beaten only four lengths by the unstoppable force that is Frankel. Marco Botti had a gauge then how useful an animal Excelebration is. Next witnessed on the track in the German 2000 Guineas Excelebration franked his Greenham form when running riot in Cologne, forging clear to win by seven lengths.
The three-year old’s next showing was at Royal Ascot and the St James Palace Stakes. Finishing third he was beaten only 1 ½ lengths this time by the superstar winner Frankel.
Stablemate Ceremonial Jade will ensure there is a decent pace in tomorrow’s race and the seven furlongs trip raced is regarded as Excelebrations optimum distance. Positive reports of his homework on the polytrack on the Cambridge Road this week can only have strengthened team Botti’s confidence of success.
Musir is a horse with the capable pedigree of landing The Hungerford Stakes’ prize.
Australian bred by Group One-winning stallion Redoute’s Choice and trained by South African Mick de Kock the jet setting bay has won a Group 2 and a Group 3 in Meydan and was unbeaten as a four-year old. Now aged five, his best performance of the year came in his last outing when third to Xtension (beaten only a length). Musir holds a leading player’s chance.
Of the other runners Richard Hannon has a great strike rate in the Hungerford over the last seven years providing two winners. Hannon is represented solely by three-year-old Dubawi Gold who has finished second in two both British and Irish 2000 Guineas, but is likely to find this tougher competing against older and more experienced horses. Clive Cox enters three runners, among them 2009 Hungerford winner Balthazaar’s Gift, Beacon Lodge and Perfect Tribute. William Haggas’s Dever Dream must also be considered. Godolphin’s Delegator was impressive when winning the Duke Of York Stakes in May of this year and although subsequently only finishing fifth in the Group 1 Darley July Cup he had excuses in being denied a clear run. His last outing though was a big disappointment in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood at the end last month, finishing last of the nine runners. He would need to show discernible improvement on that performance to win this.
Tajneed a worthy favourite at Ripon
At Ripon the racecourse’s key race of the year takes place in the shape of Great St Wilfrid handicap sprint over seven furlongs. Dandy Nicholls has been the leading trainer in the St Wilfrid over the last few years winning the event twice and at the time of writing has eight horses entered in the race, of which Tajneed looks the main player. Currently a 6-1 favourite Tajneed won this sprint three years ago and only narrowly failed to deliver the goods for a second time last year when beaten a neck by Damika. Tajneed was quickly returned to Ripon a week later illustrating his liking for both course and distance when recording a very comfortable win in a competitive Class 2 handicap. The eight-year old gelding’s form dipped noticeably at the tail end of last year before bouncing back to his best with an impressive second to the Nunthorpe favourite Hoof It two weeks ago. A reproduction of that effort would see him go close.
Lastly, much has been spoken recently of the jockeys championship with Kieran Fallon issuing the bold statement he would be going all out to win the title. Fallon has the obvious chance of picking up some tasty rides on Michael Stoute’s horses with Ryan Moore’s unfortunate injury but it is going to be very difficult for the forty-six year old to win the title again. Racing in the North is not as competitive as the Southern meetings and Paul Hanagan and Silvestre De Sousa have more chance of knocking in doubles and trebles on certain days to boost their tallies’ than Fallon does. The championship race will be close between Hanagan and de Sousa but the reigning champ would be my selection at a current best priced 10-11 with Paddy Power to retain his title.