Sports4Cast are a sports data company who use their expertise to help organisations with everything from analysing performance, making predictions and consulting on how best to manage and assess projects.
Their wealth of data also lends itself well to betting and they offer services that identify value in the football, rugby and baseball markets (with more to come). The SBC are currently crunching the numbers on all of this but with the Six Nations starting on 31st of January, we thought that getting Sports4Cast’s CEO Graeme Acheson’s thoughts on the tournament would be helpful for anyone considering a bet. Below, you will find what the models are saying and we will follow up with a Twitter/X Spaces closer to kick off!
Sports4Cast Six Nations Sneak Peak
Graeme Acheson
After a long, dark, cold January, things are finally starting to look up. The days are (marginally) getting longer, the temperature is (allegedly) going up—but most importantly, the Six Nations is nearly here. Rugby’s Greatest Championship – shameless bait for the Southern Hemisphere friends – is back again.
Who’s going to take the crown this year? Can Ireland pull off a historic 3-peat? Are France back to the powerhouse everyone fears? Will England’s defense finally gel? IS IT SCOTLAND’S YEAR? And what about Wales or Italy?
Well, read on, dear reader. All these answers – and more – are below. Let’s get into it.
Sports4Cast Predictions
At Sports4Cast, our prediction models are designed to take (at least some of!) the guesswork out of the game. Covering both international and club rugby (and football if that’s also your thing), we use a proprietary rankings system and a host of additional factors to simulate match outcomes and tournament scenarios.
The result? Unbiased predictions that cut through the noise, offering a fresh perspective on each team’s chances. It’s an excellent starting point for serious rugby fans trying to gauge form and chances and let’s be honest, an irresistible trigger for online trolls. You know who you are.
We also use these predictions to calculate a fair price or odds for each match or tournament outcome. This is what the bookmakers should be offering as a fair return for your stake – we call it the ‘Value Threshold’ – but as we well know, this is not always the case. Therefore we highlight any matches over these thresholds to draw your attention to the matches where these mispricings, or opportunities, exist.
We also take it one step further with our Premium Analysis which provides stake recommendations using a modified Kelly to help manage your bank.
You can check out the predictions here and the betting analysis here.
Ireland for the 3-peat?
Our model has Ireland as favorites for the Six Nations. If they succeed, this would mark their third title in a row – a historic feat no team has ever achieved.
All of France, England, Wales and Ireland have won twice in a row, with both England and France achieving three wins in four, but nobody has ever managed to win three consecutive Six Nations titles.
Our model gives Ireland around a 40% chance of achieving this feat, and about a 25% chance of the Grand Slam.
However, this means it’s more likely than not that someone else will take the crown.
How will the absence of Head Coach Andy Farrell affect the team’s chances? Will they lose some of their cohesion and structure, or will they fight even harder for a spot on the Lions Tour? It’s hard to say, but our model still tips Ireland to lift the title.
Are the French back?
France is the main challenger, with a 30% chance of winning the title but just a 5% chance of completing the Grand Slam.
Why are the French less favoured? Didn’t they look better in the Autumn? Well, arguably yes. They beat New Zealand after the Irish lost to the Kiwis, and comfortably put away Argentina while the Irish struggled.
However, home advantage plays a massive role in Six Nations rugby. While both Ireland and France have three away fixtures this year, Ireland hosts key games against England and France at home. The French, on the other hand, have to travel to both Dublin and Twickenham. The French don’t have a great record in Ireland in particular – winning only 1 of their last 6 there – and the model is backing Ireland to get the job done.
What do the bookies say?
Winner
The bookies have – very marginally – moved in favour of France for the title. Ireland were slight favourites last week, although it was very close either way. Interestingly, it seems that France’s increased chances have come at the expense of England, with the position on Ireland remaining fairly constant.
An average of the current bookmakers odds gives France an implied percentage chance of 36%, with the Irish trailing a mere fraction behind. The current best odds for both are around 3, although it varies day to day.
According to our model, Ireland represents good value for the tournament at odds over 2.78 – making the available odds (2.94 highlighted green above) worth a look. Betting on the Irish to win the Six Nations … ? Surely never that bad an idea at the moment!
Italy’s odds of 251 are highlighted yellow as this is technically a value bet – 251 being above our Value Threshold of 202 – but the chances of this happening are extremely low. These sorts of opportunities are highlighted yellow to reflect this risk.
All the other odds are coloured red to show that the odds are below our Value Threshold and therefore not recommended. (What can also be seen in the above is the Bookies ‘Overround’. This is the practice of factoring in the profit margin which is implemented by bookmakers, and is best displayed as a percentage. Above you can see the total of the bookies odds adds to 109% when it should add to 100%. This 9% extra is the bookies overround.)
Grand Slam?
The model has Ireland as most likely for the Grand Slam at just under 25%, but it thinks it more likely than not that no one will do a clean sweep of matches. Historically, there have been 13 Grand Slams in 25 years of Six Nations rugby so you might fairly say that there is around a 50% chance. However, the model thinks it (marginally) less likely this year, perhaps as a result of the increased competitive nature of the tournament.
Again, this looks like an opportunity. Perhaps it is similar to punters forgetting about the draw in football – when asked in the Six Nations who’s going to win the Grand Slam, people forget that ‘Nobody’ is actually a good answer.
And with odds of 2 available at William Hill for a bet that the model thinks has nearly a 2 in 3 chance of coming off – well, again that seems fairly reasonable.
What about England?
Well, they have a reasonable chance! 16% or around 1 in 6 according to the model which – as third favourites – is perhaps more than people might expect given all the doom and gloom surrounding the team of late. But then as can be seen above those chances are around the same as the bookies implied chance at 20% so perhaps people are expecting it.
England have three fixtures at home and two away. Their schedule starts off about as hard as it gets in rugby these days – away to the Irish in Dublin. After that, the French visit Twickenham which is likely to be a real 50:50 affair apparently – but after that it gets steadily easier.
Scotland seem to have had England’s number in recent years, but surely the English have to win this year … ? 5 in a row for Scotland – and 4 in row at Twickenham without a win for England – seems too much.
All in all, you’d expect England to finish maybe on three wins, and have a good chance at the fourth. Although this might not be enough to see them lift the title, it should see them finish high in the table.
If you’re looking to bet on England then right now you should be looking for odds over 7 to get value for your money, but the best we’ve been able to find is 5.7 at Betfair. The Grand Slam should be priced at least 34, but again the best we’ve found is 13 at StarSports.
All in all it’s what you might expect for England in big sporting tournaments – poor odds and little value – but keep an eye on it throughout the tournament as the odds often move unexpectedly with results.
Don’t say it … but is it Scotland’s year?
Could it finally be the year? I’m afraid it seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened! They have a decent chance of winning each match – at least individually – but it seems unlikely that they will string 4 of them together which is likely the minimum requirement to win the title. And the Grand Slam? Just under 2%.
The Scots have also suffered a further blow with a recent training injury to their talismanic captain Tuipolutu. However, saying that our model gives them a reasonable chance of winning three matches. They have two relative ‘bankers’ at home against Wales and Italy, and then a reasonable shot against all of Ireland, England and France. A good return for Scotland would be winning one of those extra games, but which of these is tricky to say.
Scotland have been flicking over and under the value threshold over the last few weeks, so they are definitely one to keep an eye on. You should be looking for odds over 8.3, which we have found from time to time, but the best right now seems to be 7.5 at Unibet.
Wales and Italy?
As for who might prop up the bottom of the table, it looks like a straight shootout between Wales and Italy right now. Wales have had well documented woes of late, and are without a single win in over a year – 12 matches in a row.
And unfortunately, this Six Nations may not yet yield it. Their best chance is against Italy, but sadly for Wales, it is away in Rome in week 2. This may prove a stretch too far for them right now, but either way it should be a good match to watch.
If you’re looking for value at the bottom of the table it’s not to be found on the two ‘favourites’, who the bookies have priced fairly poorly. However, if you like a long shot, then France have enormous odds at over 200 at William Hill.
It’s very unlikely to happen – just a 0.73% chance according to the model – but at odds of 201 it is technically worth it. I wouldn’t recommend a large stake however …
Opening Weekend
Opening weekend looks like a fairly one sided affair across the board and, although we’ve been wrong before (unbelievable, I know), it seems unlikely that we’ll see anything but three home wins.
If you’re feeling adventurous, then Wales and Italy are technically worth a punt at odds of 26 and 17 respectively – as are the draws – but personally, I wouldn’t be betting much on any of these!
However, Ireland are very close to the Value Threshold right now and, at the time of writing, there seems to be some value out there on them at Betfair so they are perhaps worth a small bet.
Looking further ahead, Weekend 2 looks like it could be a much more exciting affair, with three tantalisingly poised matches. As of yet there are no odds available for these matches, so we’ll have to wait and see what prices are being offered when they are published. Usually however, these types of close matches show up a few more opportunities as they are much more difficult to gauge.
Check Sports4Cast and their Betting Analysis throughout the tournament for all the latest info, to see how teams chances change as results come in, and to see the best opportunities, prices and recommendations for the bookies. Good luck!