It is often said that the quickest route to the poorhouse is to chase your losses backing unraced two year old horses on their debuts. It is a good point well made, but that doesn’t mean you should dismiss inexperienced thoroughbreds entirely.

It is well known that the biggest improvement that these youngsters make comes with their second run and I’ve lost count of the times I’ve made a profit from following the hype when a highly rated flop first time out reappears on the racetrack.

The way to uncover these hidden gems is through scouring the forecast prices in your morning paper and looking for horses that have been listed with a projected price of 8/1 – 10/1 in the morning only to be gambled into 4/1 or less by race time.

There is a great example of this angle today in the form of Police force in Ascot’s 245 today. After a moderate first run I’d have expected this one to be quoted at 10/1+. However it has been gambled today and could well be nearer 4/1 by the off. Someone is clearly happy to ignore the first run, taking the view that the horse has greatly improved for its debut and when you see that happening I think it is an angle you should always take notice of. This is one occasion where the market is clearly giving you a big hint and this is a strategy you can use again and again.

Continue reading →

It is often said that the quickest route to the poorhouse is to chase your losses backing unraced two year old horses on their debuts. It is a good point well made, but that doesn’t mean you should dismiss inexperienced thoroughbreds entirely.

It is well known that the biggest improvement that these youngsters make comes with their second run and I’ve lost count of the times I’ve made a profit from following the hype when a highly rated flop first time out reappears on the racetrack.

The way to uncover these hidden gems is through scouring the forecast prices in your morning paper and looking for horses that have been listed with a projected price of 8/1 – 10/1 in the morning only to be gambled into 4/1 or less by race time.

There is a great example of this angle today in the form of Police force in Ascot’s 245 today. After a moderate first run I’d have expected this one to be quoted at 10/1+. However it has been gambled today and could well be nearer 4/1 by the off. Someone is clearly happy to ignore the first run, taking the view that the horse has greatly improved for its debut and when you see that happening I think it is an angle you should always take notice of. This is one occasion where the market is clearly giving you a big hint and this is a strategy you can use again and again.

Continue reading →

If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.

As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.

The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.

Continue reading →

If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.

As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.

The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.

Continue reading →

We all know that specialisation is the key to winning money betting but how do we know where we should best apply our energies?

That’s a question I’ve been giving some thought to not least because of a thought-provoking interview in the current SBC mag which is out today.

Ben Aitken is certainly someone with an impressive take on things. His service and blog Narrow The Field focuses on dosage theory – a kind of genetic Da Vinci Code. Like me, he believes that poor quality races are a minefield for punters where a winner can literally emerge simply for being slightly fitter than the others on the day.
Continue reading →

We all know that specialisation is the key to winning money betting but how do we know where we should best apply our energies?

That’s a question I’ve been giving some thought to not least because of a thought-provoking interview in the current SBC mag which is out today.

Ben Aitken is certainly someone with an impressive take on things. His service and blog Narrow The Field focuses on dosage theory – a kind of genetic Da Vinci Code. Like me, he believes that poor quality races are a minefield for punters where a winner can literally emerge simply for being slightly fitter than the others on the day.
Continue reading →

Why are footballers and jockeys so often unveiled as poor punters? It is a question that presents itself whenever one of their number is revealed as a chronic gambler or indeed, when they are asked to offer their lame opinions, off the cuff, as interviewees.

Being immersed in your chosen sport, you’d assume, would give you a massive betting edge but this is rarely the case. Sadly, the sporting world is full of ‘experts’ who can’t bet for all their inside knowledge. The simple reason is that a combination of too much information, irrational prejudices, poor discipline and a scant regard for the maths probabilities involved ensures that the odds always remain in the bookies’ favour. Indeed, tomorrow’s racing at Sandown offers a timely reminder that in betting, patience and methodical habits will often eclipse inside info or expert analysis as a source for finding winners.

Continue reading →

Why are footballers and jockeys so often unveiled as poor punters? It is a question that presents itself whenever one of their number is revealed as a chronic gambler or indeed, when they are asked to offer their lame opinions, off the cuff, as interviewees.

Being immersed in your chosen sport, you’d assume, would give you a massive betting edge but this is rarely the case. Sadly, the sporting world is full of ‘experts’ who can’t bet for all their inside knowledge. The simple reason is that a combination of too much information, irrational prejudices, poor discipline and a scant regard for the maths probabilities involved ensures that the odds always remain in the bookies’ favour. Indeed, tomorrow’s racing at Sandown offers a timely reminder that in betting, patience and methodical habits will often eclipse inside info or expert analysis as a source for finding winners.

Continue reading →

If ever there was an object lesson of the perils of betting in management markets it comes with the appointment of Andre Villas Boas as Chelsea manager after Guus Hiddink had traded as short as 1/6 for the job, just days before.Boas first shot to prominence in the UK in 2005 when, as opposition scout for Jose Mourinho at Chelsea, one of his scouting reports was leaked onto the internet. Six years on it still makes fascinating reading.

Andre Villas Boas allegedly got his big break, when he was improbably set to work by his neighbour Sir Bobby Robson for Porto.

Aged just 16, AVB allegedly button-holed the venerated Geordie boss, in the apartment block where both men lived, and suggested that the manager look to involve Domingos Paciência, the current Braga coach, in Porto’s games more regularly. The rest as they say is history…

Continue reading →

If ever there was an object lesson of the perils of betting in management markets it comes with the appointment of Andre Villas Boas as Chelsea manager after Guus Hiddink had traded as short as 1/6 for the job, just days before.Boas first shot to prominence in the UK in 2005 when, as opposition scout for Jose Mourinho at Chelsea, one of his scouting reports was leaked onto the internet. Six years on it still makes fascinating reading.

Andre Villas Boas allegedly got his big break, when he was improbably set to work by his neighbour Sir Bobby Robson for Porto.

Aged just 16, AVB allegedly button-holed the venerated Geordie boss, in the apartment block where both men lived, and suggested that the manager look to involve Domingos Paciência, the current Braga coach, in Porto’s games more regularly. The rest as they say is history…

Continue reading →