Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.
Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.
Ascot hosts the first ever Champions Day tomorrow, with an array of all the very best horses, jockeys and trainers vying for more than £3 million in prize-money. It is a day made for racing expert Scott Armstrong who has plenty of value calls, including why Times Up for punters and his each-way bet to take on the mightly Frankel in the QEII – the most anticipated race of the day!
The inaugural Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday is a mouth-watering occasion. The richest ever day of racing witnesses more than £3 million in prize-money on offer and an impressive cast of equine stars headlined by the monster that is Frankel. Typically those in charge of racing have cast a massive shadow over the day with their new whip rules and top flat rider Richard Hughes handed in his licence in protest last night. For now I concentrate on events on the track.
The high-quality racing looks set to be run on good ground and kicks off with the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup, a Group 3 event over 2 miles. The ultra consistent Opinion Poll heads the market at best odds of 9-4 and looks sure to run a big race though the value option may be John Dunlop’s Times Up at 7-2 generally. Progressive, the five-year-old gelding improved for a step up to the 2 mile trip in a Listed race at Newmarket last time out, winning in great style and breaking the track record. The son of Olden Times and half-brother to high-class stayer Give Notice, Times Up is stoutly bred and further tests of stamina look sure to suit. With seven wins from twenty-two outings and placed on a further ten occasions he looks sure to be thereabouts.
The quality racing continues with the Champion Sprint where the big guns of Deacon Blues and French challenger Moonlight Cloud dominate the market at best odds of 11-4 and 10-3 respectively. Deacon Blues trainer James Fanshawe holds a strong hand in the race as he’s also in charge of third-favourite Society Rock at 6-1 with the rest of the field 12’s and bigger.
Deacon Blues has proved himself thoroughly progressive, allied with consistency and is capable of bagging his first Group 2 success and his fifth consecutive sprint victory. He has shown a liking for the course, landing the Wokingham Stakes at Ascot in June before triumphing in a hat-trick of Group 3 sprints at Newbury and the Curragh. Subject to midweek support it would be a concern if the ground gets to the firm side of good which wouldn’t suit the horse. Trainer James Fanshawe boasts a 20% strike rate at Ascot over the last five years and has every chance of standing in the winner’s enclosure again.
The immediate danger looks to be the French raider Moonlight Cloud who put up a magnificent showing when thrashing Society Rock by four lengths in the Group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville two months ago. A repeat of that performance would see the three-year-old filly holding every chance of success.
Society Rock loves it at Ascot but would need to take a step up to reverse placings with Moonlight Cloud while connections of Ladies Are Forever are confident of a bold showing from this Group 3 winner.
Celebration Time In The QEII?
The QEII will be the most keenly awaited event of the day as the racehorse of the year – Frankel, takes centre stage. Rated 142 by Timeform he has been winning mile races by running like an Olympian sprinter in his contests. It’s hard to envisage him being beaten here as he is 12lb clear of his main form rival Immortal Verse and has won his eight starts by an average margin of five lengths plus. The only hope his opponents can cling to is the fact that Frankel has been on the go since March this season when landing the Greenham.
The big question is whether Frankel will try to out sprint or outstay his rivals though it looks likely with stable-mate Bullet Train in the field as a pace-maker, Frankel won’t lead from the front.
Second-favourite Immortal Verse is a brilliant horse in her own right having defeated the mighty Godikova last time out in the Group 1 Prix du Haras De Fresnay.
Excelebration is under-rated and without Frankel on the current scene he could have been the best miler in Europe. Trainer Marco Botti is one of the best in the game and although Excelebration has twice finished second to Frankel, he has been narrowing the gap. The first time he raced against Frankel he went down by four lengths yet last time in opposition he lost by just over two lengths. Excelebration still looks on the upgrade winning the Group 1 Qatar Prix du Moulin at Longchamp last month having previously destroyed the field by six lengths in the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury. As hard as it is to envisage Excelebration turning the tables on Frankel, every champion is capable of taking a fall to the canvas and Marco Botti’s exciting horse appeals as an each-way shot to nothing at 6-1 rather than backing Frankel at a prohibitive 4-11.
The Champion Stakes will decide the best middle distance runner and the draw could prove crucial with an outside box being disadvantageous. In this International line up, Australia’s golden horse So You Think, now trained by Aidan O’Brien, holds market favouritism at 9-4 and deservedly so. Fourth of the sixteen runners in the Arc he can count himself a little unlucky as having received a poor draw he was running on well without ever being put into the race by Seamie Heffernan. Ryan Moore takes the ride this time.
On the figures Snow Fairy has very little to make up on So You Think yet is over treble the odds at 8-1. She has come out of the Arc bouncing and putting in some great home work on the Al Bahathri track. Lightly raced this season having suffered a setback in Dubai she is still fresh and can’t be discounted.
Sir Henry Cecil runs both Twice Over, who bids to win the race for the third consecutive season and Midday. None of them are to be dismissed lightly.
Prolific French winner Cirrus Des Aigles also looks solid on the race figures. Confidence was dented however when beaten by Byword in the Group 2 Prix Dollar at the beginning of the month and a Group 1 success has remained beyond him.
King George winner Nathaniel has to prove he is as effective over 10 furlongs as he is over 12. Nathaniel would be the first winner of the 12 furlong King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes to follow up in the 10 furlong Champion since Brigadier Gerard in 1972 and I’m not convinced he can.
I like the look of Dubai Prince at 9-1 as an each-way play. Currently officially rated 110 there is the promise of more to come. The three-year-old Godolphin colt has mad only three racecourse appearances and has yet to taste defeat. A month ago Dubai Prince landed a class 3 conditions stakes at Newbury, defeating Jet Away a comfortable two-and-a-half lengths. That form was franked by Jet Away who ran at the Knavesmire last week and made a farce of a competitive 10 furlong handicap when romping home by nine lengths.
Scott’s service is one of the many racing and sporting tipsters that we monitor and recommend at the Smart Betting Club.