Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.
Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.
This week it’s all eyes on Headquarters as Newmarket plays host to some top notch group racing action, where Scott has highlighted plenty of value. Strong fancies include Bronterre, one of his recent horses to follow in the Dewhurst at 7/2, whilst in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes he likes the look of the low-key Rebellious Guest at a double figure price.
Newmarket hosts a mouthwatering card on Saturday with two classy Group 1 races and the gruelling Cesarewitch Handicap. York also plays host to a solid card while jumps fans have meetings at Hexham, Fairyhouse and Chepstow where the exciting Silviniaco Conti returns to the track.
The Group 2 Challenge Stakes gets the ball rolling at Newmarket where Strong Suit from the Richard Hannon stable may prove hard to beat. Strong Suit was smart as a two-year old and Hannon has sorted out some niggling troubles with a breathing operation on the horse. Strong Suit subsequently showed he was in the best of health when landing the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Richard Hannon’s team are in top form presently and the predicted lively surface should see him have every chance of burning off rivals such as Chachamaidee and Maqaasid in pursuit of the £80,000 pot.
Immediately after the Challenge Stakes is the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes where Rebellious Guest may be worth an each-way interest at generous odds of 14-1 with Ladbrokes. Trainer George Margarson is not a household name and his low-key presence may have been factored into the price of Rebellious Guest who showed plenty of pace to win a maiden on his debut at Windsor. That put Rebellious Guest in the picture for the Coventry Stakes but he put in a lacklustre effort. The general consensus is the run at Royal Ascot came too soon and when last seen on track he powered home to the winner’s enclosure in a Windsor conditions stakes. Rebellious Guest is highly thought of at Margarson’s Graham Lodge stables, though ground on the firm side of good would be disadvantageous. Caspar Netscher made history last month by becoming the first horse to win the Gimcrack/Mill Reef double and merits plenty of respect going into the race as the top-rated horse. The French challenger Family One looks likely to go off favourite and Bapak Chinta is a nice type but at the odds a little play on Rebellious Guest is the call.
The Dewhurst is up next at 3.10 and could throw up a Classic winner as it has done so often in the past with Rock Of Gibraltar, Nijinksy, Frankel and Mill Reef all having won this iconic race. Aidan O’Briens Power leads the market at 10-3 and it’s noticeable that four of the last five winners of the Dewhurst have been trained in Ireland.
Power has a fighting chance of taking the prize money back across the Irish Seas with the 7f sure to suit as he proved when romping home in the Group 1 National Stakes last month. Top- rated in the race and with five wins from six contests this season the livelier ground should see him to even better effect. One of my horses to follow runs in this race – Bronterre and I’d be inclined to take on Power with him. Richard Hannon thinks the world is Bronterre’s oyster and so did his pilot Pat Dobbs when he landed a Listed race at Goodwood in devastating fashion, declaring his rangy mount the best two-year old he has ridden all season. Ektihaam is 4-1 and each-way players could be on a shot to nothing with Roger Varian’s colt who is two wins from two runs. I put up Most Improved as a selection for my members in a Newmarket maiden on his second outing and he pulverised the field, recording a decent time. I am sure Brian Meehan will eke more out of his horse on Saturday at 10-1. Spiritual Star has been supplemented by connections for £20,000 to race and is also dangerous having romped home in another Newmarket maiden and with surely more to come. A race to savour.
All roads then lead to the mammoth Cesarewitch handicap at 3.50. This race is very much draw dependent. Since 1980 only one winner has emerged from a single-digit box with eight of the last ten victors coming from one of the highest eight stalls. Be aware however that the BHA in their infinite wisdom have flipped the starting stalls around and where previously you would be seeking the winner from the high numbers you now must go low.
I couldn’t commit myself to picking a winner without knowing the draw but two against the thirty-four runner field are Beyond from David Pipe’s yard and Tuscan Gold from Mark Prescott both each-way playable at 12-1.
Beyond is decent over hurdles and proving as effective on the flat having won on three occasions from four runs. The Cesarewitch is a stamina test with all the last ten winners of the event previously having won over two miles. Stamina is one attribute Beyond won’t lack and he shapes up as though he could stay longer than the mother-in-law. The lightly raced Tuscan Gold has been laid out for the race; he will appreciate the endurance test and has been putting in some great shifts at home.
Scott’s service is one of the many racing and sporting tipsters that we monitor and recommend at the Smart Betting Club.