Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.
Each Friday, Scott provides us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – including the key horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view, Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.
The jumps season kicks off in earnest this weekend with the Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby. Ascot also holds a decent National Hunt card while the flat season has not quite dwindled out yet with meetings at Newmarket, Ayr and there’s racing on the polytrack at Wolverhampton.
The Charlie Hall Chase is the pivotal jumps race of the weekend and this season’s renewal is a cracker. Having been won on previous years by such luminaries as One Man, Wayward Lad, Forgive ‘N’ Forget, Barton Bank, Our Vic and See More Business this term’s contest witnesses Diamond Harry as current 11-4 favourite and he looks the one to beat.
Nine of the last ten winners of the race have come from the top four in the betting which bodes well for Diamond Harry as well as Time For Rupert, Poquelin and Nacarat.
Diamond Harry has long been regarded as a major prospect. A lot was asked of him in his first race outside of novice company – a Listed Handicap Hurdle where he was conceding weight to some fine staying handicappers. Diamond Harry however could be named the winner some way from home as his galloping long effortless stride carried him two-and-a-half lengths clear of Burton Port. Subsequently transferring his hurdle class to fences when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup he suffered a suspensory ligament injury last season ruling him out of the Gold Cup when third favourite.
Off the track for the best part of a year since his Hennessy triumph, the major concern is whether he will be fully fit.
The immediate danger according to the betting market is Paul Webber’s stable star Time For Rupert at best odds of 7-2. A top-class hurdler he recorded a great start to his fencing career when winning two novice chases at Cheltenham last season and there was talk of him having a tilt at the Gold Cup itself. Webber opted for the RSA Chase and despite being sent off a warm 7-4 jolly, he never got going. It materialised there were genuine excuses for the performance having suffered a lung infection which led to a broken blood vessel. Given he still managed to finish fifth of the twelve runners shows what a courageous character he is. Webber has had Time For Rupert schooling with the legendary Yogi Breisner and reports suggest he is in salubrious health. Nevertheless the major concern is Saturday’s ground being too fast for him. In Graded contests where the ground has been good or quicker the seven-year-old has failed to win on all four starts. Juice in the ground is required for Time For Rupert to show his true worth.
Third in the layer’s lists is Paul Nicholls’ Poquelin. The eight-year-old gelding proved he runs best fresh when winning on his seasonal returns in 2008 and 2009. Honest and reliable and likely to get his requisite good ground, the worry for Poquelin supporters is the fact he has never run over further than two miles and five furlongs before.
Nacarat is next in the betting at 6-1 and will be popular with the each-way thieves with his consistent record of making the frame. Last year’s winner of the race commands plenty of respect. A confirmed front-runner he is a superbly reliable jumper, uncomplicated and always gives a 100%. Putting in a tremendous performance when winning the Totesport Bowl at Aintree in May he will probably strip the fittest horse in the field having been trained specifically for the race. Sam Thomas takes over from the suspended Paddy Brennan and that’s no bad thing with Thomas enjoying a good rapport with Nacarat having ridden him to success in the race last year.
Of the rest of the field, Chicago Grey has been attracting midweek money at 12-1 though noticeably William Hill have him at 7s.
Weird Al has his first run under the tutelage of Donald McCain. The eight-year-old looked destined for the top when making it four from four over fences for Ian Williams at Carlisle on this weekend a year ago, but the rest of his campaign failed to live up to expectations following a breathing problem. Lightly raced it’s difficult to quantify the ceiling of his ability.
Quinz is a big, strong horse who put up his best performance when winning the Racing Post Chase at Kempton in February. Although suited by decent going he would need to have improved significantly over the summer to play a leading role here.
Hey Big Spender is a tough sort but would prefer softer going while the others look to have too much on their plate.
An intriguing race and one to set the pulse racing at the beginning of the jumps season but a difficult one from a betting perspective. Provided Diamond Harry strips fit he will take all the beating. However should he not be fully tuned up then Nacarat rates a worthy each-way alternative.
Scott’s service is one of the many racing and sporting tipsters that we monitor and recommend at the Smart Betting Club. Click here to join today.
