A briefer write-up for this weekends bets, which looks quite a tricky set of games to weigh up.
One team I do want to side with this weekend is Arsenal to overcome a -1.75 handicap at home to Bolton at 2.16 with 12bet. This follows the logic of Arsenals record at home to bottom 12 teams, where they won by 2 goals or more 11 out of 12 occasions last season. Bolton do look a better team this season but I wonder if their new passing game will play into Arsenals hands a bit more. Walcott and Van Persie are out but Arsenal have enough strength in depth to cope.
My other main bet is over 2.5 goals as Fulham host Wolves, which is 2.20 with Extrabet. Against bottom 12 teams, both Fulhams home and Wolves away record last season saw the over line hit 13 times out of 22 (59.09%). This equates to odds of 1.69 so the offering of 2.20 is far too big. It seems the supposed defensive outlook from both these teams and managers has forced this overs line out to a value price.
My one shortlist bet is on over 2.5 goals as Newcastle host Blackpool, which is 1.8 with Stan James. Again I feel that Blackpool’s porous defence will struggle on the road especially given the attacking play that Ian Holloway advocates. The one bet that nearly made the list was Everton with a +0.5 start against Man Utd but ruled out for a number of reasons.
Main Bet
1.5 pts Over 2.5 goals Wolves V Fulham. 2.20 Extrabet (nb 2.12 12bet)
1 pt Arsenal -1.75 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 2.16 12bet
Shortlist
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Newcastle V Blackpool. 1.80 Stan James
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike