Long faces all round this week from an English point of view after losing out to the Russians in the World Cup bid. If you were of a cynical mindset you might wonder if the fact that Russia this week was quoted as being a “virtual mafia state with widespread corruption, bribery and protection rackets” made them so appealing to FIFA!? ….. I couldn’t possibly comment!
Still the World Cup for all its hype is a poor event from a value betting perspective (despite the billions traded on it) and in contrast the English Premier League continues to throw up what I feel are good value bets each weekend. None more so than this Monday with Aston Villa, who despite a run of losses lately have not been playing too badly and look to have a better chance than the odds suggest away at a Liverpool team minus Gerrard & Carragher. I can easily see Houllier’s return to Anfield ending in a draw and with a +1 Asian Handicap at 1.84, we can even lose by 1 goal and get our stake back. The pace of Young & Agbonlahor up against Kyrgiakos will certainly make for an interesting contest.
Birmingham may not be the prettiest team to watch (both stylistically and aesthetically – hello Lee Bowyer) but they are blooming hard to beat at home. They have lost just 2 out of 26 at St Andrews and will give visitors Spurs a run for their money, especially if the away team gift them a head start like in a number of recent games. The +0.5 at 1.82 with Pinnacle on Brum looks a cracking bet to my eyes.
It looks like there has been an over-reaction to West Ham’s 4-0 demolition of Man Utd in a game featuring enough defensive howlers to make Alan Hansen weep. It needs some context though as the United back-line was distinctly second-rate and Scotty Parker et al wont find the Sunderland backline quite so generous. On the road the Hammers have been abysmal and they have lost 61% of all games since the 09/10 season started. Sunderland on the contrary are very strong at home and I expect Messrs Welbeck, Gyan and Bent to continue West Ham’s travel sickness. The 1.91 on the Black Cats indicates they have a 52% chance of victory, which I make closer to 60% so real value there.
A few shortlist bets from this weekend including Arsenal to continue their goalscoring form and overcome a 1.75 handicap at home to Fulham. The only concern is which Arsenal show up as they are fast becoming a Jekyll and Hyde team, making them a punters nightmare.
Finally I have a shortlist bet on perennial faves Bolton who I fancy to go up against an unconvincing Man City side with a +1 Asian Handicap head-start.
Main Bets
1.5 pts Aston Villa (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.84 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+0.5 AH) V Spurs. 1.82 Pinnacle
1 pt Sunderland to beat West Ham. 1.91 Ladbrokes/Bluesq/Will Hill
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V Fulham. 2.10 Paddy Power
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Man City. 1.95 Betinternet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike