My phone has been buzzing this week with enough Liverpool FC jokes to give Ken Dodd a coronary and the bookies predict there will be little relief for the reds this weekend with Everton clear favourites at a best 2.52 to win the Merseyside derby. I never like betting in these derby games and it’s hard to see a confident edge with even the under 2.5 goals line a very short best priced 1.68 with Expekt. Perhaps a better bet is the 11/5 with Betfair on there to be a red card as some of the challenges regularly seen in this fixture are enough to make even Jackie Chan wince (or Nigel De Jong nod approvingly).
It’s just a short drive down from Goodison to find my first main bet this weekend as Bolton host Stoke at the Reebok where I fancy Owen Coyle’s outfit to take all 3 points. The home team are a much changed outfit no longer hoofing the ball up field at every opportunity (unlike their opponents) with my eye caught by the -0.25 Asian Handicap on them at 1.92 with 188bet. I do expect the extra quality Bolton now have in their squad to have too much for Stoke although this bet ensures we only lose half a pt if it’s a draw.
Staying in the North West and as good as Blackpool were at Anfield recently, I think they will find Man City a totally different kettle of fish. Under Bobby Manc, Citeh are well drilled with a very tough midfield and oodles of skill out wide (no not you Shaun Wright-Phillips), which should prosper against Blackpool’s attacking line-up. I expect a professional away performance from City and back them to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at 2.16 with 12bet.
Two shortlist bets this week where I am backing a couple of home sides to do the business with first of all Blackburn a tasty looking 2.15 with Expekt to beat Sunderland. Big Sam’s men have won 75% of all home games against bottom 12 opposition since last season and the 2.15 suggests only a 46% chance. I reckon Big Sam’s hoofball tactics will overcome the Black Cats at least 50% of the time at home so this strikes me as value.
The other shortlist is Fulham with a 0 Asian Handicap (2.11 with 188bet) at home to Spurs as very few teams in recent times have come away from Craven Cottage with all 3 points. Mark Hughes has changed very little for the home outfit as they remain very well organised with the only question mark as to who will score the goals with Zamora, Johnson and Dembele out. A low-risk bet for me and I feel Fulham are being under-rated by the bookies in this game.
Two More Ante-Posts
I have done some more stats digging this week and have a couple more ante-post bets I like the look of. The first is Blackpool to finish rock bottom at 7/4 with Paddy Power, which looks mighty generous and the second is on Wolves at 5/4 with Bluesquare, Coral & Ladbrokes to be relegated. Wolves were the lowest scorers in the league last season and their goalie Hahnemann made the most saves so I think they flattered to deceive last year. Blackpool are riding the crest of a wave at the moment and Paddys have pushed this price out from evens to 7/4 on the strength of the Liverpool game. A major over-reaction in my eyes.
Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (-0.25 AH) V Stoke. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Man City (-1 AH) V Blackpool. 2.16 12bet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (0 AH) V Spurs. 2.11 188bet
1 pt Blackburn to beat Sunderland. 2.15 Expekt/William Hill
Latest Ante-Post Bets
1 pt Blackpool to finish rock bottom. 7/4 Paddy Power
1 pt Wolves to be relegated. 5/4 Bluesquare, Coral, Ladbrokes
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike