Champions League Value Bets: Small Value In Man U Home Win.

Posted on by Dan

Value bets for the group stages:

Using the Fink Tank/ Dectech ratings we can also hunt out some value bets the upcoming group stage matches. We tested the Fink Tank ratings on the EPL last season using a value betting approach and found some very positive results. Click here for a summary of the results and an outline of how we identified a value bet from the ratings.

Essentially if the ratings imply a better chance that the bookie odds are implying, you take the bet. If the ratings give a team a 40% chance of winning and the bookies are implying just a 30% chance, then you have a value bet. It may not be the most likely winner, but if you buy enough things at under market value, eventually the profits will emerge through the short term noise.

Here’s what the ratings threw up in the last round of Champions League games. 

Results so far: 
The ratings have flagged up lots of value in the underdogs, but so far, but there just haven’t been enough major upsets.
Bets: 59
Profit/ loss: -25.34 points
Tuesday’s games:  
First up, here are the English team’s chances tonight according to the Dectech ratings:
  • Man U vs Benfica: Man U 67.4% chance. Value with Man U.
  • Napoli vs Man City: Man City 45.6% chance. No value with Man City.
  • Arsenal vs Dortmund: Arsenal 45.2% chance. No value with Arsenal.
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Chelsea: Chelsea 42.3% chance. No value with Chelsea.
The English clubs are all likely winners but the bookies are offering no value according to the ratings.

Here are all the games:

NB bets like Olympiakos & Draw mean the ratings find value in both the draw and the away side so both are backed using a bookmaker’s Double Chance. If a game is missing it means there is no value in any proposition.

Bet Ideas:

You can follow the value bets blindly or use them to inform your own betting. For example, Otelul are big value against United, but if the match were played 1000 times, they’d still only win a handful of times. Therefore you might want to pick and choose or use Asian Handicaps to level the playing field.

With this in mind, here are some of the bets that caught our eye:

  • Moscow Home Win @ 2.41 Pinnacle.
  • Otelul home (+0.25 handiap) @ 2.56 Pinnacle sports.
  • Apoel away (+1) @ 2.16 Pinnacle sports.
  • Bayer Leverkusen home (0) @ 2.53 Pinnacle sports.
  • Olympiakos away (+0.5) @ +2.42 SBO bet.
  • Real Madrid home (-2.75) @ 2.05 SBO bet.

For more tests of ratings, tipsters and systems like this, join the Smart Betting Club.