An early bet for this weekend (more to come).

Main Bet
1.5 pt West Ham V Spurs – Over 2.5 goals. 2.0 Skybet

First a quick update on performance so far…

This Season

Main Bets: 6 bets, 6.5 pts staked, 1.42 pts profit, 40.57% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 5 bets, 5 pts staked, 1.65 pts profit, 33% ROI

Total (including last season)
Main Bets: 70 bets, 85 pts staked, 12.08 pts profit, 14.21% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 12 bets, 12 pts staked, 1.01 pts profit, 8.42% ROI

This weeks bets

Blackburn host Fulham on Saturday where Big Sam has quietly turned Ewood Park into a fortress with very few visiting teams likely to leave with all 3 points. They won 8 of their 11 home games last season against the bottom 12, whereas Fulham lost 5 out of 11 on the road against the same group. I equate the likelihood of a home win to be around 1.80 (effectively a 55% chance) and with 2.10 (47% chance) on offer with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Skybet this stands out as value to me.

Its a similar story as Stoke host West Ham, with the visitors having a dreadful away record, losing 11 of their 18 games on the road last year. The Potters on the other hand are strong at home especially to the bottom 12, winning 7 out of 11 games last season. Again I make the likely odds of a home win around 1.75 so the 2.0 on offer with Ladbrokes is yet more value.

Both Blackburn and Stoke will target these matches as the type they have to win and I would be surprised if at least 1 of them doesn’t oblige. Not going mad with stakes though as the season is still fairly new.

My 3^rd main bet and home side to be backed this weekend is Sunderland who face a resurgent Arsenal fresh from scoring 6 goals in midweek against a shell-shocked Braga. It seems the odds on Arsenal have shrunk off the back of their good start to the season but I envisage a much tougher game for them up in the North East. Sunderland only lost 3 games at home last season (Man U, Chelsea & Villa) and the likely front pair of Bent and Gyan will pose the new Arsenal centre-back pair real problems. I like the +0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Pinnacle on the Black Cats.

No shortlist bets this weekend but worth noting that in the big game at Old Trafford, Liverpool won only 2 games on the road against the top 10 last season. They also lost all 4 games away at the top 4 last year but the best odds on a Man Utd win is a short enough 1.75. The angle of interest for me is on Sir Alex’s men to win to nil, which is 7/4 with Ladbrokes.

Main Bets
1 pt Blackburn to beat Fulham. 2.1 Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Skybet
1 pt Stoke to beat West Ham. 2.0 Ladbrokes/Coral/Sky
1 pt Sunderland (+0.75 AH) V Arsenal. 2.11 Pinnacle/Betinternet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A briefer write-up for this weekends bets, which looks quite a tricky set of games to weigh up.

One team I do want to side with this weekend is Arsenal to overcome a -1.75 handicap at home to Bolton at 2.16 with 12bet. This follows the logic of Arsenals record at home to bottom 12 teams, where they won by 2 goals or more 11 out of 12 occasions last season. Bolton do look a better team this season but I wonder if their new passing game will play into Arsenals hands a bit more. Walcott and Van Persie are out but Arsenal have enough strength in depth to cope.

My other main bet is over 2.5 goals as Fulham host Wolves, which is 2.20 with Extrabet. Against bottom 12 teams, both Fulhams home and Wolves away record last season saw the over line hit 13 times out of 22 (59.09%). This equates to odds of 1.69 so the offering of 2.20 is far too big. It seems the supposed defensive outlook from both these teams and managers has forced this overs line out to a value price.

My one shortlist bet is on over 2.5 goals as Newcastle host Blackpool, which is 1.8 with Stan James. Again I feel that Blackpool’s porous defence will struggle on the road especially given the attacking play that Ian Holloway advocates. The one bet that nearly made the list was Everton with a +0.5 start against Man Utd but ruled out for a number of reasons.

Main Bet
1.5 pts Over 2.5 goals Wolves V Fulham. 2.20 Extrabet (nb 2.12 12bet)
1 pt Arsenal -1.75 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 2.16 12bet

Shortlist
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Newcastle V Blackpool. 1.80 Stan James

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

We are starting to see some patterns form across the league now and with the transfer window closing next week, the league should start to settle down a bit. Already I have been picking out a few angles to follow this year, which I hope will be profitable as we move forward.

Readers from last year will know I’m a fan of Blackburn at home who only lost 3 games at Ewood Park last season (Spurs, Villa & Everton) and they face Arsenal in a game I think the bookies have priced up wrong. Blackburn are a very tough team who improved a great deal over the course of last season and will certainly test out the very shaky Almunia in the visitors net with plenty of high balls and crosses. I fancy the +0.75 AH with Paddy Power at 2.1 on Blackburn here, which gives us a guaranteed profit if it’s a draw and only a small loss if they lose by 1 goal.

I also am siding with another home side last weekend at fancy Bolton at 2.2 with Stan James to have too much for Birmingham, who by all accounts were lucky to beat Blackburn last week. Bolton are looking a real dark horse this season and this is the type of game they will target 3 points from.

Another strong team at home is Sunderland who also lost just 3 games at the Stadium of Light last season (Chelsea, Man Utd & Villa) and they host Man City on Sunday. Mancini’s team are strong faves but having seen how he sets City up away from home, I could see this easily being a draw. The +0.5 AH with 188bet at 2.1 therefore interests me here. Given Sunderland’s relatively poor start to the season, I am putting this one on the shortlist only though.

I am also going to invest 1 pt in the Wolves – Wigan match bet as the price on Wigan has now drifted out to 13/8 with VCbet. Admittedly Wigan have started the season very poorly but I don’t think there is that there is actually that much between the two teams so am willing to go against the crowd here.

Main Bet
1.5 pts Blackburn (+0.75 AH) V Arsenal 2.1 Paddy Power
1 pt Bolton to beat Birmingham. 2.2 Stan James/Paddy Power
1pt Wigan to finish above Wolves this season. 2.63 VCbet (Ante-post)

Shortlist
1 pt Sunderland (+0.5 AH) V Man City. 2.1 188bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

We are starting to see some patterns form across the league now and with the transfer window closing next week, the league should start to settle down a bit. Already I have been picking out a few angles to follow this year, which I hope will be profitable as we move forward.

Readers from last year will know I’m a fan of Blackburn at home who only lost 3 games at Ewood Park last season (Spurs, Villa & Everton) and they face Arsenal in a game I think the bookies have priced up wrong. Blackburn are a very tough team who improved a great deal over the course of last season and will certainly test out the very shaky Almunia in the visitors net with plenty of high balls and crosses. I fancy the +0.75 AH with Paddy Power at 2.1 on Blackburn here, which gives us a guaranteed profit if it’s a draw and only a small loss if they lose by 1 goal.

I also am siding with another home side last weekend at fancy Bolton at 2.2 with Stan James to have too much for Birmingham, who by all accounts were lucky to beat Blackburn last week. Bolton are looking a real dark horse this season and this is the type of game they will target 3 points from.

Another strong team at home is Sunderland who also lost just 3 games at the Stadium of Light last season (Chelsea, Man Utd & Villa) and they host Man City on Sunday. Mancini’s team are strong faves but having seen how he sets City up away from home, I could see this easily being a draw. The +0.5 AH with 188bet at 2.1 therefore interests me here. Given Sunderland’s relatively poor start to the season, I am putting this one on the shortlist only though.

I am also going to invest 1 pt in the Wolves – Wigan match bet as the price on Wigan has now drifted out to 13/8 with VCbet. Admittedly Wigan have started the season very poorly but I don’t think there is that there is actually that much between the two teams so am willing to go against the crowd here.

Main Bet
1.5 pts Blackburn (+0.75 AH) V Arsenal 2.1 Paddy Power
1 pt Bolton to beat Birmingham. 2.2 Stan James/Paddy Power
1pt Wigan to finish above Wolves this season. 2.63 VCbet (Ante-post)

Shortlist
1 pt Sunderland (+0.5 AH) V Man City. 2.1 188bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A good start to proceedings last week even if somewhat surprised Blackpool won 4-0 but it just goes to show the unpredictability at the start of a new season and why we keep our powder relatively dry. Speaking of Blackpool I had a long look at the markets for their game away at Arsenal this weekend, which will be the first major test of their defence.

The bookies expect lots of action with under 2.5 goals as short as 1.49 (67% chance of occurring) which seems pretty fair and I also considered the -2 Asian Handicap line on Arsenal at 1.83 with Paddy Power. Last season at home the Gunners won by 3 or more goals (37%) on 7 occasions and by 2 goals on a further 6 occasions (31%). Its worth noting as well that against the bottom 12 teams of the league that you would have lost money only once (The 1-0 game against Wolves) betting on Arsenal -2 at home. It is the start of the season though and Arsenal did not show great penetration away at Liverpool so this is just a shortlist bet this week.

My one main bet this week is on Stoke who face an out-of-sorts Spurs team who will have more than one eye on a crucial Champions League qualifier on Tuesday. Stoke is the last kind of place you want to travel to before such a big game and they have a very decent home record. Spurs also are a much stronger team at home and I fancy the +0.25 Asian Handicap on Stoke at 1.98 with 3 different bookies. We win half our stake even if its a draw and I expect a low-scoring game with few chances, which is the Stoke way.

Other angles that came under scrutiny but didn’t qualify as a bet include Birmingham (-0.25 AH) at 1.98 against Blackburn, however I am very worried about the draw here. The same goes for Man City (-0.25 AH) at 2.02 at home to Liverpool. I also don’t envisage many goals at Eastlands but the bookies seem to have the market about right at 1.73 (57% chance) for the under 2.5 goals option.

A note as well on some season bets I am keeping an eye on including the Wolves – Wigan match bet over at VCbet. With Wigan facing a rampant Chelsea this weekend I feel the odds on this may go out further so will hold fire on this just yet.

Main Bet
1 pt Stoke (+0.25 AH) V Spurs 1.98 Ladbrokes, 188Bet, SBOBet

Shortlist
1 pt Arsenal (-2  AH) V Blackpool. 1.83 Paddy Power

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A good start to proceedings last week even if somewhat surprised Blackpool won 4-0 but it just goes to show the unpredictability at the start of a new season and why we keep our powder relatively dry. Speaking of Blackpool I had a long look at the markets for their game away at Arsenal this weekend, which will be the first major test of their defence.

The bookies expect lots of action with under 2.5 goals as short as 1.49 (67% chance of occurring) which seems pretty fair and I also considered the -2 Asian Handicap line on Arsenal at 1.83 with Paddy Power. Last season at home the Gunners won by 3 or more goals (37%) on 7 occasions and by 2 goals on a further 6 occasions (31%). Its worth noting as well that against the bottom 12 teams of the league that you would have lost money only once (The 1-0 game against Wolves) betting on Arsenal -2 at home. It is the start of the season though and Arsenal did not show great penetration away at Liverpool so this is just a shortlist bet this week.

My one main bet this week is on Stoke who face an out-of-sorts Spurs team who will have more than one eye on a crucial Champions League qualifier on Tuesday. Stoke is the last kind of place you want to travel to before such a big game and they have a very decent home record. Spurs also are a much stronger team at home and I fancy the +0.25 Asian Handicap on Stoke at 1.98 with 3 different bookies. We win half our stake even if its a draw and I expect a low-scoring game with few chances, which is the Stoke way.

Other angles that came under scrutiny but didn’t qualify as a bet include Birmingham (-0.25 AH) at 1.98 against Blackburn, however I am very worried about the draw here. The same goes for Man City (-0.25 AH) at 2.02 at home to Liverpool. I also don’t envisage many goals at Eastlands but the bookies seem to have the market about right at 1.73 (57% chance) for the under 2.5 goals option.

A note as well on some season bets I am keeping an eye on including the Wolves – Wigan match bet over at VCbet. With Wigan facing a rampant Chelsea this weekend I feel the odds on this may go out further so will hold fire on this just yet.

Main Bet
1 pt Stoke (+0.25 AH) V Spurs 1.98 Ladbrokes, 188Bet, SBOBet

Shortlist
1 pt Arsenal (-2  AH) V Blackpool. 1.83 Paddy Power

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

With the return of the Premier League this weekend and the major European leagues soon to follow suit, its back into the swing of things football wise.

The temptation when the season re-starts is to rush in and place a whole load of bets as your betting money has been burning a hole in your pocket for a while. It can be a dangerous thing to do as the bookies know this so want you to risk too much straight away.

Most football fans are the same at the start of the new season as no matter how badly their team went last year there is this feeling that things could be different. Often it is for no reason other than the bad memories from last year have now gone – however give it a few weeks and it very often all comes flooding back!

Therefore it’s a gentle start to the season for me this weekend with 1 small main bet and 2 shortlist bets only (these are my next best selections) and more of a watching brief than anything.

A game such as Spurs – Man City is very difficult to predict (City could be anything this year) and with Aston Villa now managerless and usually stronger away from home, the odds-on price for them to beat West Ham this weekend does not appeal.

My 1 main bet actually features a good ol northern derby as pie-eaters Wigan host stag-do central Blackpool in the away sides first ever Premier League game. Even Tony Cascarino could pick out Blackpool as a team to struggle this year but I am keen to exploit the over 2.5 goals market in their games as they are set-up to attack and will definitely let in a lot of goals at the back. Their opponents Wigan are perennially dodgy defensively (Gary Caldwell) but look to have a decent set of strikers this year.

I see goals in this game and don’t quite understand why 5Dimes and SBOBet are offering 2.21 on the over 2.5 goals market and I thought I would show my calculations on why i see it as value. Odds of 2.21 equates the chance of this happening to only a 45% likelihood. Last year Wigan went over 2.5 goals in 58% of games whilst Blackpool did in 59% of games. Thus combined, the 58.5% chance likelihood indicates odds of 1.72 in this market to be more accurate. Consider as well that last season 53% of games in the Premier League went over 2.5 goals and it really sticks out as value. We are being offered 2.21, when the true value lies at around 1.70-1.80. Were it not the first game of the season I would make this more than just a 1 pt bet.

My other shortlist bets include Bolton who play Fulham at home, which is the type of game they always target for 3 points. Even Roy Hodgson couldn’t improve the Cottagers form on the road much and so the -0.25 Asian Handicap on the Trotters with 12Bet appeals at 1.94. Mark Hughes will probably set out Fulham to be very hard to beat so a half loss if it’s a draw is OK.

Blackburn are another team perennially under-rated at home and they seem too large with a 0 Asian Handicap at 2.22 with 188Bet against Everton. The visitors were one of the few teams to win at Ewood Park last year (they threw caution to the wind that day) but Big Sam’s team won’t lose many at home this season.

Main Bet
1 pt Wigan V Blackpool. Over 2.5 Goals. 2.21 5Dimes/SBObet

Shortlist
1 pt Bolton (-0.25 AH) V Fulham. 1.94 12Bet
1 pt Blackburn (0 AH) V Everton. 2.22 188Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

With the return of the Premier League this weekend and the major European leagues soon to follow suit, its back into the swing of things football wise.

The temptation when the season re-starts is to rush in and place a whole load of bets as your betting money has been burning a hole in your pocket for a while. It can be a dangerous thing to do as the bookies know this so want you to risk too much straight away.

Most football fans are the same at the start of the new season as no matter how badly their team went last year there is this feeling that things could be different. Often it is for no reason other than the bad memories from last year have now gone – however give it a few weeks and it very often all comes flooding back!

Therefore it’s a gentle start to the season for me this weekend with 1 small main bet and 2 shortlist bets only (these are my next best selections) and more of a watching brief than anything.

A game such as Spurs – Man City is very difficult to predict (City could be anything this year) and with Aston Villa now managerless and usually stronger away from home, the odds-on price for them to beat West Ham this weekend does not appeal.

My 1 main bet actually features a good ol northern derby as pie-eaters Wigan host stag-do central Blackpool in the away sides first ever Premier League game. Even Tony Cascarino could pick out Blackpool as a team to struggle this year but I am keen to exploit the over 2.5 goals market in their games as they are set-up to attack and will definitely let in a lot of goals at the back. Their opponents Wigan are perennially dodgy defensively (Gary Caldwell) but look to have a decent set of strikers this year.

I see goals in this game and don’t quite understand why 5Dimes and SBOBet are offering 2.21 on the over 2.5 goals market and I thought I would show my calculations on why i see it as value. Odds of 2.21 equates the chance of this happening to only a 45% likelihood. Last year Wigan went over 2.5 goals in 58% of games whilst Blackpool did in 59% of games. Thus combined, the 58.5% chance likelihood indicates odds of 1.72 in this market to be more accurate. Consider as well that last season 53% of games in the Premier League went over 2.5 goals and it really sticks out as value. We are being offered 2.21, when the true value lies at around 1.70-1.80. Were it not the first game of the season I would make this more than just a 1 pt bet.

My other shortlist bets include Bolton who play Fulham at home, which is the type of game they always target for 3 points. Even Roy Hodgson couldn’t improve the Cottagers form on the road much and so the -0.25 Asian Handicap on the Trotters with 12Bet appeals at 1.94. Mark Hughes will probably set out Fulham to be very hard to beat so a half loss if it’s a draw is OK.

Blackburn are another team perennially under-rated at home and they seem too large with a 0 Asian Handicap at 2.22 with 188Bet against Everton. The visitors were one of the few teams to win at Ewood Park last year (they threw caution to the wind that day) but Big Sam’s team won’t lose many at home this season.

Main Bet
1 pt Wigan V Blackpool. Over 2.5 Goals. 2.21 5Dimes/SBObet

Shortlist
1 pt Bolton (-0.25 AH) V Fulham. 1.94 12Bet
1 pt Blackburn (0 AH) V Everton. 2.22 188Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike