A busy weekend of bets so I will get straight into it…

Over at the Emirates this weekend I am keen to follow in Arsenal to overcome a -2 Asian Handicap at 1.91 with Paddy Power against what looks a very poor West Ham side. After a recent blip against West Brom, the Gunners have perked up and with Fabregas & Walcott back they look a much more potent team. Arsenal have won by 2 goals or more in 13 out of 16 games against the bottom 12 teams since last season and I expect Robert Green to be a busy man!

Fulham also have a strong home record against the bottom 12 teams and have won 9 out of 12 games against these teams since the 09/10 season. They have had a very tough start to the season but have still drawn against Man Utd and Everton at home, with the only blip a narrow defeat to Spurs because of a very dubious goal. I fancy them at 1.91 with Pinnacle to have too much for a Jekyll and Hyde Wigan outfit.

I am keen to continue to follow in a fave team of mine this season – Bolton, who take on Liverpool who were far from convincing when beating poor travellers Blackburn last week. The trotters have drawn at home with the likes of Man Utd, Fulham & Birmingham and beaten Stoke this season so far and are a very tough not to crack at the Reebok. A draw looks to be the most likely result and I am taking a +0.25 AH on the home team at 1.98 with Ladbrokes.

Blackburn may be terrible on the road but at home they are a completely different proposition and if Samba and Nelson are back in defence, Chelsea will find it hard to break them down. Only Arsenal and Everton have won their in recent teams and then only by the odd goal. Blackburn at 1.95 with a +1.25 Asian Handicap from Betinternet looks value.

I also see value in siding with Sunderland away at inconsistent Newcastle this weekend in the North East derby. The +0.25 AH on them is 2.07 with Betinternet but I am going to include it as a shortlist only due to the complications that such intense derby games can bring.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Arsenal (-2 AH) V West Ham. 1.91 Paddy Power
1 pt Fulham to beat Wigan. 1.91 Pinnacle
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Liverpool. 1.98 Ladbrokes
1 pt Blackburn (+1.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.95 Betinternet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (+0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 2.07 Betinternet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A busy weekend of bets so I will get straight into it…

Over at the Emirates this weekend I am keen to follow in Arsenal to overcome a -2 Asian Handicap at 1.91 with Paddy Power against what looks a very poor West Ham side. After a recent blip against West Brom, the Gunners have perked up and with Fabregas & Walcott back they look a much more potent team. Arsenal have won by 2 goals or more in 13 out of 16 games against the bottom 12 teams since last season and I expect Robert Green to be a busy man!

Fulham also have a strong home record against the bottom 12 teams and have won 9 out of 12 games against these teams since the 09/10 season. They have had a very tough start to the season but have still drawn against Man Utd and Everton at home, with the only blip a narrow defeat to Spurs because of a very dubious goal. I fancy them at 1.91 with Pinnacle to have too much for a Jekyll and Hyde Wigan outfit.

I am keen to continue to follow in a fave team of mine this season – Bolton, who take on Liverpool who were far from convincing when beating poor travellers Blackburn last week. The trotters have drawn at home with the likes of Man Utd, Fulham & Birmingham and beaten Stoke this season so far and are a very tough not to crack at the Reebok. A draw looks to be the most likely result and I am taking a +0.25 AH on the home team at 1.98 with Ladbrokes.

Blackburn may be terrible on the road but at home they are a completely different proposition and if Samba and Nelson are back in defence, Chelsea will find it hard to break them down. Only Arsenal and Everton have won their in recent teams and then only by the odd goal. Blackburn at 1.95 with a +1.25 Asian Handicap from Betinternet looks value.

I also see value in siding with Sunderland away at inconsistent Newcastle this weekend in the North East derby. The +0.25 AH on them is 2.07 with Betinternet but I am going to include it as a shortlist only due to the complications that such intense derby games can bring.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Arsenal (-2 AH) V West Ham. 1.91 Paddy Power
1 pt Fulham to beat Wigan. 1.91 Pinnacle
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Liverpool. 1.98 Ladbrokes
1 pt Blackburn (+1.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.95 Betinternet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Sunderland (+0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 2.07 Betinternet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

It’s been a crazy few weeks in the Premier League, even by its own often sometime ridiculous standards. What with all the lawyers, court cases and offers of 250k a week wages – it all makes me pine for the days when the biggest news of the day was the quality of mullet on offer. Check out some of these beauties for some light relief!  What was Barry Venison thinking!

There may be no mullets on offer at Stamford Bridge this weekend but it does feature my first bet of the weekend where I am very keen on Chelsea to overcome a 2.25 goal Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Bet365. Last season they won 8 of their 11 games against the bottom 12 of the league by 3 goals or more and have already stuck 4 and 6 past West Brom and Blackpool this year. They host a limited Wolves side and I see an easy 3 points here with hopefully lots of goals!

I also want to continue my net-busting bets on Blackpool this weekend where 12bet are offering 1.83 on over 2.5 goals when they visit Birmingham. The home team’s defence has lost the mean look it had last season and Blackpool have gone overs in 7 out of 8 games already. Ian Holloway ended his last game against Man City with 4 strikers on the field, whereas Brum will see this as a must win game and won’t sit back either.

I am quickly picking up some favourite teams for this season and one of these is Bolton who I am backing with a 0.25 Asian Handicap away at Wigan (1.85 Pinnacle). There are two sides going in contrasting directions and I am a fan of Owen Coyle and what he is doing at Bolton, who could be a dark horse this season.

Another quarter ball Asian Handicap for me is on West Brom to overcome Fulham, who continue to have a very poor record on the road. The Cottagers have drawn all 4 games away this season, whereas the Baggies have shown fantastic resilience and plenty of skill by beating Arsenal and drawing with United away recently. I am taking the -0.25 Asian with Canbet & SBObet on the home team at 1.90.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Chelsea (-2.25 AH) V Wolves. 2.1 Bet365
1.5 pt Blackpool V Birmingham. Over 2.5 goals. 1.83 12bet
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Wigan. 1.85 Pinnacle
1 pt West Brom (-0.25 AH) V Fulham. 1.90 Canbet, SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man City V Arsenal. Under 2.5 goals. 1.93 Pinnacle/12bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

It’s been a crazy few weeks in the Premier League, even by its own often sometime ridiculous standards. What with all the lawyers, court cases and offers of 250k a week wages – it all makes me pine for the days when the biggest news of the day was the quality of mullet on offer. Check out some of these beauties for some light relief!  What was Barry Venison thinking!

There may be no mullets on offer at Stamford Bridge this weekend but it does feature my first bet of the weekend where I am very keen on Chelsea to overcome a 2.25 goal Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Bet365. Last season they won 8 of their 11 games against the bottom 12 of the league by 3 goals or more and have already stuck 4 and 6 past West Brom and Blackpool this year. They host a limited Wolves side and I see an easy 3 points here with hopefully lots of goals!

I also want to continue my net-busting bets on Blackpool this weekend where 12bet are offering 1.83 on over 2.5 goals when they visit Birmingham. The home team’s defence has lost the mean look it had last season and Blackpool have gone overs in 7 out of 8 games already. Ian Holloway ended his last game against Man City with 4 strikers on the field, whereas Brum will see this as a must win game and won’t sit back either.

I am quickly picking up some favourite teams for this season and one of these is Bolton who I am backing with a 0.25 Asian Handicap away at Wigan (1.85 Pinnacle). There are two sides going in contrasting directions and I am a fan of Owen Coyle and what he is doing at Bolton, who could be a dark horse this season.

Another quarter ball Asian Handicap for me is on West Brom to overcome Fulham, who continue to have a very poor record on the road. The Cottagers have drawn all 4 games away this season, whereas the Baggies have shown fantastic resilience and plenty of skill by beating Arsenal and drawing with United away recently. I am taking the -0.25 Asian with Canbet & SBObet on the home team at 1.90.

Main Bets
1.5 pt Chelsea (-2.25 AH) V Wolves. 2.1 Bet365
1.5 pt Blackpool V Birmingham. Over 2.5 goals. 1.83 12bet
1 pt Bolton (+0.25 AH) V Wigan. 1.85 Pinnacle
1 pt West Brom (-0.25 AH) V Fulham. 1.90 Canbet, SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Man City V Arsenal. Under 2.5 goals. 1.93 Pinnacle/12bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

My phone has been buzzing this week with enough Liverpool FC jokes to give Ken Dodd a coronary and the bookies predict there will be little relief for the reds this weekend with Everton clear favourites at a best 2.52 to win the Merseyside derby. I never like betting in these derby games and it’s hard to see a confident edge with even the under 2.5 goals line a very short best priced 1.68 with Expekt. Perhaps a better bet is the 11/5 with Betfair on there to be a red card as some of the challenges regularly seen in this fixture are enough to make even Jackie Chan wince (or Nigel De Jong nod approvingly).

It’s just a short drive down from Goodison to find my first main bet this weekend as Bolton host Stoke at the Reebok where I fancy Owen Coyle’s outfit to take all 3 points. The home team are a much changed outfit no longer hoofing the ball up field at every opportunity (unlike their opponents) wit Continue reading →

My phone has been buzzing this week with enough Liverpool FC jokes to give Ken Dodd a coronary and the bookies predict there will be little relief for the reds this weekend with Everton clear favourites at a best 2.52 to win the Merseyside derby. I never like betting in these derby games and it’s hard to see a confident edge with even the under 2.5 goals line a very short best priced 1.68 with Expekt. Perhaps a better bet is the 11/5 with Betfair on there to be a red card as some of the challenges regularly seen in this fixture are enough to make even Jackie Chan wince (or Nigel De Jong nod approvingly).

It’s just a short drive down from Goodison to find my first main bet this weekend as Bolton host Stoke at the Reebok where I fancy Owen Coyle’s outfit to take all 3 points. The home team are a much changed outfit no longer hoofing the ball up field at every opportunity (unlike their opponents) wit Continue reading →

Plenty of very appealing bets this weekend and it’s proven hard to narrow them down as lots tick the boxes.

One of my strongest is at Upton Park where I expect goals as Harry Redknapp returns to one of his former teams – West Ham. The Hammers saw over 2.5 goals in 61% of all games, whilst Spurs did so in 58% of their matches last season – a trend that is continuing this year. The overs at 2.00 with Skybet suggests they have this as a 50% chance, whereas 60% seems more likely especially considering the home sides shaky defence. Hopefully Robert Green will be in nets!

I am also continuing my backing of Arsenal to overcome a 2 goal margin at home against bottom half teams (see my previous analysis here). They should have too much for West Brom but it’s worth noting as well that a lot of the Gunners goals come late in the 2^nd half when they have worn these teams down. You can get 4/1 on a HT/FT result of Draw/Arsenal, which also doesn’t look too bad.

In the Saturday lunchtime kick-off we have the first real test of Chelsea this season who travel up to Eastlands for a crunch game. With 2 Italian managers in charge I think this could be a tight defensive affair and we have already seen how Mancini is lining up with De Jong, Barry & Toure solid in midfield. Since Bobby Manc (as the natives know him) took over, City have played 10 games against top 8 teams with 7 of these going under 2.5 goals. The 1.96 on this suggests a 51% chance of happening and I rate it more likely than that.

Over at Craven Cottage, I also spy a value bet on Fulham who take on an out-of-sorts Everton, who have a miserable record at this ground. 12bet and SBOBet offer 1.99 on Fulham with a 0 Asian Handicap, which I feel is value. I also continue to want to side with the over 2.5 goals on Blackpool who will persist with their attacking approach in the derby against Blackburn. The 1.91 on this with a number of bookies is a shortlist bet.

Other bets under consideration that missed out included under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and Stoke, although at 1.8 this looked fairly short.  The same reasoning precluded me from advising Birmingham to beat Wigan at 1.87, a price that is a bit on the skinny side for me.

Main Bets
1.5 pts West Ham V Spurs – Over 2.5 goals. 2.0 Skybet (early pick from Thursday)
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V West Brom. 1.95 Bet365
1 pt Man City – Chelsea – Under 2.5 goals. 1.96 Canbet/12bet/SBObet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (0 AH) V Everton. 1.99 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Blackpool – Blackburn. Over 2.5 goals. 1.91 Pinnacle/SBObet/Canbet/10bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

An early bet for this weekend (more to come).

Main Bet
1.5 pt West Ham V Spurs – Over 2.5 goals. 2.0 Skybet

First a quick update on performance so far…

This Season

Main Bets: 6 bets, 6.5 pts staked, 1.42 pts profit, 40.57% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 5 bets, 5 pts staked, 1.65 pts profit, 33% ROI

Total (including last season)
Main Bets: 70 bets, 85 pts staked, 12.08 pts profit, 14.21% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 12 bets, 12 pts staked, 1.01 pts profit, 8.42% ROI

This weeks bets

Blackburn host Fulham on Saturday where Big Sam has quietly turned Ewood Park into a fortress with very few visiting teams likely to leave with all 3 points. They won 8 of their 11 home games last season against the bottom 12, whereas Fulham lost 5 out of 11 on the road against the same group. I equate the likelihood of a home win to be around 1.80 (effectively a 55% chance) and with 2.10 (47% chance) on offer with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Skybet this stands out as value to me.

Its a similar story as Stoke host West Ham, with the visitors having a dreadful away record, losing 11 of their 18 games on the road last year. The Potters on the other hand are strong at home especially to the bottom 12, winning 7 out of 11 games last season. Again I make the likely odds of a home win around 1.75 so the 2.0 on offer with Ladbrokes is yet more value.

Both Blackburn and Stoke will target these matches as the type they have to win and I would be surprised if at least 1 of them doesn’t oblige. Not going mad with stakes though as the season is still fairly new.

My 3^rd main bet and home side to be backed this weekend is Sunderland who face a resurgent Arsenal fresh from scoring 6 goals in midweek against a shell-shocked Braga. It seems the odds on Arsenal have shrunk off the back of their good start to the season but I envisage a much tougher game for them up in the North East. Sunderland only lost 3 games at home last season (Man U, Chelsea & Villa) and the likely front pair of Bent and Gyan will pose the new Arsenal centre-back pair real problems. I like the +0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Pinnacle on the Black Cats.

No shortlist bets this weekend but worth noting that in the big game at Old Trafford, Liverpool won only 2 games on the road against the top 10 last season. They also lost all 4 games away at the top 4 last year but the best odds on a Man Utd win is a short enough 1.75. The angle of interest for me is on Sir Alex’s men to win to nil, which is 7/4 with Ladbrokes.

Main Bets
1 pt Blackburn to beat Fulham. 2.1 Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Skybet
1 pt Stoke to beat West Ham. 2.0 Ladbrokes/Coral/Sky
1 pt Sunderland (+0.75 AH) V Arsenal. 2.11 Pinnacle/Betinternet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A briefer write-up for this weekends bets, which looks quite a tricky set of games to weigh up.

One team I do want to side with this weekend is Arsenal to overcome a -1.75 handicap at home to Bolton at 2.16 with 12bet. This follows the logic of Arsenals record at home to bottom 12 teams, where they won by 2 goals or more 11 out of 12 occasions last season. Bolton do look a better team this season but I wonder if their new passing game will play into Arsenals hands a bit more. Walcott and Van Persie are out but Arsenal have enough strength in depth to cope.

My other main bet is over 2.5 goals as Fulham host Wolves, which is 2.20 with Extrabet. Against bottom 12 teams, both Fulhams home and Wolves away record last season saw the over line hit 13 times out of 22 (59.09%). This equates to odds of 1.69 so the offering of 2.20 is far too big. It seems the supposed defensive outlook from both these teams and managers has forced this overs line out to a value price.

My one shortlist bet is on over 2.5 goals as Newcastle host Blackpool, which is 1.8 with Stan James. Again I feel that Blackpool’s porous defence will struggle on the road especially given the attacking play that Ian Holloway advocates. The one bet that nearly made the list was Everton with a +0.5 start against Man Utd but ruled out for a number of reasons.

Main Bet
1.5 pts Over 2.5 goals Wolves V Fulham. 2.20 Extrabet (nb 2.12 12bet)
1 pt Arsenal -1.75 Asian Handicap V Bolton. 2.16 12bet

Shortlist
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Newcastle V Blackpool. 1.80 Stan James

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike