Games are coming thick and fast at the moment and a few more bets for the games to be played on the 28th and 29th.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Everton. 2.13 188bet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+1 AH) V Man Utd. 2.00 Pinnacle
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
Games are coming thick and fast at the moment and a few more bets for the games to be played on the 28th and 29th.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Everton. 2.13 188bet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+1 AH) V Man Utd. 2.00 Pinnacle
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
An early look at the next round of fixtures for Boxing Day and the 27th, although ultimately a number of these maybe called off if the bad weather continues.
One likely casualty if it snows (thanks to the lack of under-soil heating) is the game at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool host Liverpool in a game the scousers will be keen for revenge after the shock loss at Anfield a few months back. The Seasiders are better away from home while Liverpool suffer regular travel-sickness and look very wobbly at the back. I see plenty of goalmouth action in this one and with 12Bet offering a very generous 1.82 on over 2.5 goals, it looks worth snapping up to me.
Similarly in the games featuring Man Utd and Sunderland and Chelsea and Arsenal I think the over 2.5 goals lines are too generous. Man Utd have gone overs in 67% of home games this season and 84% last season and if Sunderland persist with playing 3 up-front the 1.77 looks a decent punt (albeit only shortlist quality as I would want a smidge more odds-wise for a Main Bet). You can also get 1.95 on over 2.5 goals in the game at the Emirates, which represents a 51.2% chance, and as I make it more likely a 55% chance, will take this bet too. Chelsea are surely also too good to go too long before improving back to early season standards and they seem under-rated for a fixture they have dominated in recent times – The 2.08 on them with a 0 AH line with Bet365 looks a decent shortlist bet.
Two more main bets including Aston Villa with a surprisingly good 1.92 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home to Spurs. Villa for all their woes have lost just once at home this year and just three times last season so with a 0.46 point profit if it’s a draw this looks a good punt. Finally Bolton’s odds again look too good on them at 2.08 to beat West Brom at the Reebok. This large price looks like an over-reaction to the fact they have narrowly lost 2 tough away games recently, but at home they are very strong indeed. I think Bolton should be odds-on here and so snapping this one up.
Finally I want to back Wolves at 2.22 against a poor Wigan side, who especially struggle on the road. Since last season, the latics have lost 18 out of 27 away from home and whilst Wolves are hardly prolific themselves, they look to be over-priced. Unlikely to be a game for the purists, 1-0 is the most likely result I imagine.
Please note I will do my level best to get my advice for the 28th and 29th games up in good time, although as I am away for a few days over Christmas I may struggle with an Internet connection! Keep an eye on the blog on the 28th and over the festive period.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackpool V Liverpool. 1.82 12Bet
1 pt Aston Villa (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Arsenal. 1.95 Pinnacle/SJ/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat West Brom. 2.08 188bet/5dimes
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Wolves to beat Wigan. 2.22 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (0 AH) V Arsenal. 2.08 Bet365
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd V Sunderland. 1.77 10Bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
An early look at the next round of fixtures for Boxing Day and the 27th, although ultimately a number of these maybe called off if the bad weather continues.
One likely casualty if it snows (thanks to the lack of under-soil heating) is the game at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool host Liverpool in a game the scousers will be keen for revenge after the shock loss at Anfield a few months back. The Seasiders are better away from home while Liverpool suffer regular travel-sickness and look very wobbly at the back. I see plenty of goalmouth action in this one and with 12Bet offering a very generous 1.82 on over 2.5 goals, it looks worth snapping up to me.
Similarly in the games featuring Man Utd and Sunderland and Chelsea and Arsenal I think the over 2.5 goals lines are too generous. Man Utd have gone overs in 67% of home games this season and 84% last season and if Sunderland persist with playing 3 up-front the 1.77 looks a decent punt (albeit only shortlist quality as I would want a smidge more odds-wise for a Main Bet). You can also get 1.95 on over 2.5 goals in the game at the Emirates, which represents a 51.2% chance, and as I make it more likely a 55% chance, will take this bet too. Chelsea are surely also too good to go too long before improving back to early season standards and they seem under-rated for a fixture they have dominated in recent times – The 2.08 on them with a 0 AH line with Bet365 looks a decent shortlist bet.
Two more main bets including Aston Villa with a surprisingly good 1.92 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home to Spurs. Villa for all their woes have lost just once at home this year and just three times last season so with a 0.46 point profit if it’s a draw this looks a good punt. Finally Bolton’s odds again look too good on them at 2.08 to beat West Brom at the Reebok. This large price looks like an over-reaction to the fact they have narrowly lost 2 tough away games recently, but at home they are very strong indeed. I think Bolton should be odds-on here and so snapping this one up.
Finally I want to back Wolves at 2.22 against a poor Wigan side, who especially struggle on the road. Since last season, the latics have lost 18 out of 27 away from home and whilst Wolves are hardly prolific themselves, they look to be over-priced. Unlikely to be a game for the purists, 1-0 is the most likely result I imagine.
Please note I will do my level best to get my advice for the 28th and 29th games up in good time, although as I am away for a few days over Christmas I may struggle with an Internet connection! Keep an eye on the blog on the 28th and over the festive period.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackpool V Liverpool. 1.82 12Bet
1 pt Aston Villa (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Arsenal. 1.95 Pinnacle/SJ/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat West Brom. 2.08 188bet/5dimes
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Wolves to beat Wigan. 2.22 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (0 AH) V Arsenal. 2.08 Bet365
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd V Sunderland. 1.77 10Bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
No time to write any commentary this week but 5 bets to get stuck into this weekend.
Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 2.11 Canbet/12bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Liverpool V Fulham. 2.17 Canbet/10bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Man Utd. 2.29 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Everton (+0.75 AH) V Man City. 2.02 Pinnacle
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackburn V West Ham. 1.95 Stan James
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
No time to write any commentary this week but 5 bets to get stuck into this weekend.
Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle. 2.11 Canbet/12bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Liverpool V Fulham. 2.17 Canbet/10bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Man Utd. 2.29 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Everton (+0.75 AH) V Man City. 2.02 Pinnacle
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackburn V West Ham. 1.95 Stan James
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
A quick update on the season so far and after last weekend my bets are 2.95 pts in profit from 53.5 pts staked so far since August (ROI of 5.51%) so hoping to up that in coming weeks and months. My staking this season has let me down the most as at flat 1 pt stakes, returns would actually be 4.87 pts up (9.10% ROI) and its something I am certainly looking at. The best news is that of my 9 ante-post bets, 6 are currently winning, which means a further 4.51 pts if it stays the same before the season is out.
We have seen a fair amount of goals in the Premier League this season and I see lots of value in 3 separate over 2.5 goals lines this weekend. My first bet is up at Bolton where my fave team this year host unconvincing travellers Blackburn in a local derby. Blackburn have gone overs in 59% of away games and Bolton in 63% of home games since last season and the odds of 1.98 suggest only a 50.7% chance of this happening again. Happy therefore to take the value on offer here.
Down at Craven Cottage, the odds of 2.35 on Fulham V Sunderland to see over 2.5 goals also looks too high. Looking at similar seasonal scoring stats, I make the % chance of overs to be 47% (about 2.12) and with Sunderland playing 3 up front they won’t be shy about getting forward. Fulham need to get 3 points as well so I can’t see them sitting back here either.
West Ham V Man City rounds off my overs bets this weekend as the Hammers have let in 3 goals or more in 63% of home games since last season. City whilst not prolific themselves should enjoy the woeful defending on offer from the home team, although the best odds of 2.04 are not huge so just a shortlist bet here.
My final main bet is similar to one I took in April last year, which won on Spurs with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home against an out of form Chelsea. You can get 1.83 with Bet365 and considering Redknapp’s charges have lost just 3 home games in 2 seasons, Chelsea have their work cut out here. A draw gives us a 0.41 pt profit, but I can easily see all three points going to the tome team.
A couple of final shortlist bets too with Bolton to beat Blackburn at 2.14 and Villa to beat West Brom at 2.2. Both prices I feel should be closer to evens, although some concerns that the Bolton game is a local derby where form can go pear-shaped and Villa need to bounce back from 4 losses on the bounce.
Please note – my bets next week may only appear on Saturday morning. I will be posting them as usual on the SBC Blog.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Bolton V Blackburn. 1.98 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Fulham V Sunderland. 2.35 SBObet/12bet/canbet
1 pt Tottenham (+0.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.83 Bet365/Betinternet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Bolton to beat Blackburn. 2.14 Pinnacle
1 pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom. 2.2 Boylesports
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Man City. 2.04 Ladbrokes
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
A quick update on the season so far and after last weekend my bets are 2.95 pts in profit from 53.5 pts staked so far since August (ROI of 5.51%) so hoping to up that in coming weeks and months. My staking this season has let me down the most as at flat 1 pt stakes, returns would actually be 4.87 pts up (9.10% ROI) and its something I am certainly looking at. The best news is that of my 9 ante-post bets, 6 are currently winning, which means a further 4.51 pts if it stays the same before the season is out.
We have seen a fair amount of goals in the Premier League this season and I see lots of value in 3 separate over 2.5 goals lines this weekend. My first bet is up at Bolton where my fave team this year host unconvincing travellers Blackburn in a local derby. Blackburn have gone overs in 59% of away games and Bolton in 63% of home games since last season and the odds of 1.98 suggest only a 50.7% chance of this happening again. Happy therefore to take the value on offer here.
Down at Craven Cottage, the odds of 2.35 on Fulham V Sunderland to see over 2.5 goals also looks too high. Looking at similar seasonal scoring stats, I make the % chance of overs to be 47% (about 2.12) and with Sunderland playing 3 up front they won’t be shy about getting forward. Fulham need to get 3 points as well so I can’t see them sitting back here either.
West Ham V Man City rounds off my overs bets this weekend as the Hammers have let in 3 goals or more in 63% of home games since last season. City whilst not prolific themselves should enjoy the woeful defending on offer from the home team, although the best odds of 2.04 are not huge so just a shortlist bet here.
My final main bet is similar to one I took in April last year, which won on Spurs with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home against an out of form Chelsea. You can get 1.83 with Bet365 and considering Redknapp’s charges have lost just 3 home games in 2 seasons, Chelsea have their work cut out here. A draw gives us a 0.41 pt profit, but I can easily see all three points going to the tome team.
A couple of final shortlist bets too with Bolton to beat Blackburn at 2.14 and Villa to beat West Brom at 2.2. Both prices I feel should be closer to evens, although some concerns that the Bolton game is a local derby where form can go pear-shaped and Villa need to bounce back from 4 losses on the bounce.
Please note – my bets next week may only appear on Saturday morning. I will be posting them as usual on the SBC Blog.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Bolton V Blackburn. 1.98 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Fulham V Sunderland. 2.35 SBObet/12bet/canbet
1 pt Tottenham (+0.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.83 Bet365/Betinternet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Bolton to beat Blackburn. 2.14 Pinnacle
1 pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom. 2.2 Boylesports
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Man City. 2.04 Ladbrokes
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
Long faces all round this week from an English point of view after losing out to the Russians in the World Cup bid. If you were of a cynical mindset you might wonder if the fact that Russia this week was quoted as being a “virtual mafia state with widespread corruption, bribery and protection rackets” made them so appealing to FIFA!? ….. I couldn’t possibly comment!
Still the World Cup for all its hype is a poor event from a value betting perspective (despite the billions traded on it) and in contrast the English Premier League continues to throw up what I feel are good value bets each weekend. None more so than this Monday with Aston Villa, who despite a run of losses lately have not been playing too badly and look to have a better chance than the odds suggest away at a Liverpool team minus Gerrard & Carragher. I can easily see Houllier’s return to Anfield ending in a draw and with a +1 Asian Handicap at 1.84, we can even lose by 1 goal and get our stake back. The pace of Young & Agbonlahor up against Kyrgiakos will certainly make for an interesting contest.
Birmingham may not be the prettiest team to watch (both stylistically and aesthetically – hello Lee Bowyer) but they are blooming hard to beat at home. They have lost just 2 out of 26 at St Andrews and will give visitors Spurs a run for their money, especially if the away team gift them a head start like in a number of recent games. The +0.5 at 1.82 with Pinnacle on Brum looks a cracking bet to my eyes.
It looks like there has been an over-reaction to West Ham’s 4-0 demolition of Man Utd in a game featuring enough defensive howlers to make Alan Hansen weep. It needs some context though as the United back-line was distinctly second-rate and Scotty Parker et al wont find the Sunderland backline quite so generous. On the road the Hammers have been abysmal and they have lost 61% of all games since the 09/10 season started. Sunderland on the contrary are very strong at home and I expect Messrs Welbeck, Gyan and Bent to continue West Ham’s travel sickness. The 1.91 on the Black Cats indicates they have a 52% chance of victory, which I make closer to 60% so real value there.
A few shortlist bets from this weekend including Arsenal to continue their goalscoring form and overcome a 1.75 handicap at home to Fulham. The only concern is which Arsenal show up as they are fast becoming a Jekyll and Hyde team, making them a punters nightmare.
Finally I have a shortlist bet on perennial faves Bolton who I fancy to go up against an unconvincing Man City side with a +1 Asian Handicap head-start.
Main Bets
1.5 pts Aston Villa (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.84 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+0.5 AH) V Spurs. 1.82 Pinnacle
1 pt Sunderland to beat West Ham. 1.91 Ladbrokes/Bluesq/Will Hill
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V Fulham. 2.10 Paddy Power
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Man City. 1.95 Betinternet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike
Long faces all round this week from an English point of view after losing out to the Russians in the World Cup bid. If you were of a cynical mindset you might wonder if the fact that Russia this week was quoted as being a “virtual mafia state with widespread corruption, bribery and protection rackets” made them so appealing to FIFA!? ….. I couldn’t possibly comment!
Still the World Cup for all its hype is a poor event from a value betting perspective (despite the billions traded on it) and in contrast the English Premier League continues to throw up what I feel are good value bets each weekend. None more so than this Monday with Aston Villa, who despite a run of losses lately have not been playing too badly and look to have a better chance than the odds suggest away at a Liverpool team minus Gerrard & Carragher. I can easily see Houllier’s return to Anfield ending in a draw and with a +1 Asian Handicap at 1.84, we can even lose by 1 goal and get our stake back. The pace of Young & Agbonlahor up against Kyrgiakos will certainly make for an interesting contest.
Birmingham may not be the prettiest team to watch (both stylistically and aesthetically – hello Lee Bowyer) but they are blooming hard to beat at home. They have lost just 2 out of 26 at St Andrews and will give visitors Spurs a run for their money, especially if the away team gift them a head start like in a number of recent games. The +0.5 at 1.82 with Pinnacle on Brum looks a cracking bet to my eyes.
It looks like there has been an over-reaction to West Ham’s 4-0 demolition of Man Utd in a game featuring enough defensive howlers to make Alan Hansen weep. It needs some context though as the United back-line was distinctly second-rate and Scotty Parker et al wont find the Sunderland backline quite so generous. On the road the Hammers have been abysmal and they have lost 61% of all games since the 09/10 season started. Sunderland on the contrary are very strong at home and I expect Messrs Welbeck, Gyan and Bent to continue West Ham’s travel sickness. The 1.91 on the Black Cats indicates they have a 52% chance of victory, which I make closer to 60% so real value there.
A few shortlist bets from this weekend including Arsenal to continue their goalscoring form and overcome a 1.75 handicap at home to Fulham. The only concern is which Arsenal show up as they are fast becoming a Jekyll and Hyde team, making them a punters nightmare.
Finally I have a shortlist bet on perennial faves Bolton who I fancy to go up against an unconvincing Man City side with a +1 Asian Handicap head-start.
Main Bets
1.5 pts Aston Villa (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.84 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+0.5 AH) V Spurs. 1.82 Pinnacle
1 pt Sunderland to beat West Ham. 1.91 Ladbrokes/Bluesq/Will Hill
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V Fulham. 2.10 Paddy Power
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Man City. 1.95 Betinternet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike