Let down by a 90th minute Joe Cole goal in the last round of fixtures and its proven to be a tricky period with so many games in such a short period of time (too many if you ask me!)

I expect some tired legs with the huge number of games played recently so there could well be goals a plenty. I think both the overs lines in the Blackpool and Fulham games offer some excellent value. The Bolton AH -0.75 line would also be a main bet were if not for worries over the number of fit players they will have for this game (They only had 4 subs in the Liverpool game!).

Please note there will be no Premier League games this coming weekend as we have the FA Cup 3rd round instead.

Main Bets
1.5 pts Over 2.5 goals – Blackpool V Birmingham. 2.07 Canbet/SBOBet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals – Fulham V West Brom. 2.26 SBOBet

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (-0.25 AH) V West Brom. 1.88 Pinnacle/12Bet
1 pt Bolton (-0.75 AH) V Wigan. 1.98 Canbet/SBOBet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A few more bets for the first set of games in 2011.

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.83 Stan James
1 pt Sunderland (-0.5 AH) V Blackburn. 1.99 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 Goals – West Ham V Wolves. 2.14 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Everton (0 AH) V Stoke. 2.02 Ladbrokes

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A few more bets for the first set of games in 2011.

Main Bets
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Liverpool. 1.83 Stan James
1 pt Sunderland (-0.5 AH) V Blackburn. 1.99 Ladbrokes
1 pt Over 2.5 Goals – West Ham V Wolves. 2.14 5Dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Everton (0 AH) V Stoke. 2.02 Ladbrokes

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Games are coming thick and fast at the moment and a few more bets for the games to be played on the 28th and 29th.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Everton. 2.13 188bet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+1 AH) V Man Utd. 2.00 Pinnacle

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

Games are coming thick and fast at the moment and a few more bets for the games to be played on the 28th and 29th.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Everton. 2.13 188bet/12bet
1 pt Birmingham (+1 AH) V Man Utd. 2.00 Pinnacle

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

An early look at the next round of fixtures for Boxing Day and the 27^th, although ultimately a number of these maybe called off if the bad weather continues.

One likely casualty if it snows (thanks to the lack of under-soil heating) is the game at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool host Liverpool in a game the scousers will be keen for revenge after the shock loss at Anfield a few months back. The Seasiders are better away from home while Liverpool suffer regular travel-sickness and look very wobbly at the back. I see plenty of goalmouth action in this one and with 12Bet offering a very generous 1.82 on over 2.5 goals, it looks worth snapping up to me.

Similarly in the games featuring Man Utd and Sunderland and Chelsea and Arsenal I think the over 2.5 goals lines are too generous. Man Utd have gone overs in 67% of home games this season and 84% last season and if Sunderland persist with playing 3 up-front the 1.77 looks a decent punt (albeit only shortlist quality as I would want a smidge more odds-wise for a Main Bet). You can also get 1.95 on over 2.5 goals in the game at the Emirates, which represents a 51.2% chance, and as I make it more likely a 55% chance, will take this bet too. Chelsea are surely also too good to go too long before improving back to early season standards and they seem under-rated for a fixture they have dominated in recent times – The 2.08 on them with a 0 AH line with Bet365 looks a decent shortlist bet.

Two more main bets including Aston Villa with a surprisingly good 1.92 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home to Spurs. Villa for all their woes have lost just once at home this year and just three times last season so with a 0.46 point profit if it’s a draw this looks a good punt. Finally Bolton’s odds again look too good on them at 2.08 to beat West Brom at the Reebok. This large price looks like an over-reaction to the fact they have narrowly lost 2 tough away games recently, but at home they are very strong indeed. I think Bolton should be odds-on here and so snapping this one up.

Finally I want to back Wolves at 2.22 against a poor Wigan side, who especially struggle on the road. Since last season, the latics have lost 18 out of 27 away from home and whilst Wolves are hardly prolific themselves, they look to be over-priced. Unlikely to be a game for the purists, 1-0 is the most likely result I imagine.

Please note I will do my level best to get my advice for the 28^th and 29^th games up in good time, although as I am away for a few days over Christmas I may struggle with an Internet connection! Keep an eye on the blog on the 28^th and over the festive period.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackpool V Liverpool. 1.82 12Bet
1 pt Aston Villa (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Arsenal. 1.95 Pinnacle/SJ/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat West Brom. 2.08 188bet/5dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Wolves to beat Wigan. 2.22 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (0 AH) V Arsenal. 2.08 Bet365
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd V Sunderland. 1.77 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

An early look at the next round of fixtures for Boxing Day and the 27^th, although ultimately a number of these maybe called off if the bad weather continues.

One likely casualty if it snows (thanks to the lack of under-soil heating) is the game at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool host Liverpool in a game the scousers will be keen for revenge after the shock loss at Anfield a few months back. The Seasiders are better away from home while Liverpool suffer regular travel-sickness and look very wobbly at the back. I see plenty of goalmouth action in this one and with 12Bet offering a very generous 1.82 on over 2.5 goals, it looks worth snapping up to me.

Similarly in the games featuring Man Utd and Sunderland and Chelsea and Arsenal I think the over 2.5 goals lines are too generous. Man Utd have gone overs in 67% of home games this season and 84% last season and if Sunderland persist with playing 3 up-front the 1.77 looks a decent punt (albeit only shortlist quality as I would want a smidge more odds-wise for a Main Bet). You can also get 1.95 on over 2.5 goals in the game at the Emirates, which represents a 51.2% chance, and as I make it more likely a 55% chance, will take this bet too. Chelsea are surely also too good to go too long before improving back to early season standards and they seem under-rated for a fixture they have dominated in recent times – The 2.08 on them with a 0 AH line with Bet365 looks a decent shortlist bet.

Two more main bets including Aston Villa with a surprisingly good 1.92 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home to Spurs. Villa for all their woes have lost just once at home this year and just three times last season so with a 0.46 point profit if it’s a draw this looks a good punt. Finally Bolton’s odds again look too good on them at 2.08 to beat West Brom at the Reebok. This large price looks like an over-reaction to the fact they have narrowly lost 2 tough away games recently, but at home they are very strong indeed. I think Bolton should be odds-on here and so snapping this one up.

Finally I want to back Wolves at 2.22 against a poor Wigan side, who especially struggle on the road. Since last season, the latics have lost 18 out of 27 away from home and whilst Wolves are hardly prolific themselves, they look to be over-priced. Unlikely to be a game for the purists, 1-0 is the most likely result I imagine.

Please note I will do my level best to get my advice for the 28^th and 29^th games up in good time, although as I am away for a few days over Christmas I may struggle with an Internet connection! Keep an eye on the blog on the 28^th and over the festive period.

Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackpool V Liverpool. 1.82 12Bet
1 pt Aston Villa (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Arsenal. 1.95 Pinnacle/SJ/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat West Brom. 2.08 188bet/5dimes

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Wolves to beat Wigan. 2.22 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (0 AH) V Arsenal. 2.08 Bet365
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd V Sunderland. 1.77 10Bet

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

No time to write any commentary this week but 5 bets to get stuck into this weekend.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle.  2.11 Canbet/12bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Liverpool V Fulham. 2.17 Canbet/10bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Man Utd. 2.29 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Everton (+0.75 AH) V Man City. 2.02 Pinnacle

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackburn V West Ham. 1.95 Stan James

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

No time to write any commentary this week but 5 bets to get stuck into this weekend.

Main Bets
1 pt Birmingham (-0.25 AH) V Newcastle.  2.11 Canbet/12bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Liverpool V Fulham. 2.17 Canbet/10bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Man Utd. 2.29 Canbet/SBObet
1 pt Everton (+0.75 AH) V Man City. 2.02 Pinnacle

Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackburn V West Ham. 1.95 Stan James

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike

A quick update on the season so far and after last weekend my bets are 2.95 pts in profit from 53.5 pts staked so far since August (ROI of 5.51%) so hoping to up that in coming weeks and months. My staking this season has let me down the most as at flat 1 pt stakes, returns would actually be 4.87 pts up (9.10% ROI) and its something I am certainly looking at. The best news is that of my 9 ante-post bets, 6 are currently winning, which means a further 4.51 pts if it stays the same before the season is out.

We have seen a fair amount of goals in the Premier League this season and I see lots of value in 3 separate over 2.5 goals lines this weekend. My first bet is up at Bolton where my fave team this year host unconvincing travellers Blackburn in a local derby. Blackburn have gone overs in 59% of away games and Bolton in 63% of home games since last season and the odds of 1.98 suggest only a 50.7% chance of this happening again. Happy therefore to take the value on offer here.

Down at Craven Cottage, the odds of 2.35 on Fulham V Sunderland to see over 2.5 goals also looks too high. Looking at similar seasonal scoring stats, I make the % chance of overs to be 47% (about 2.12) and with Sunderland playing 3 up front they won’t be shy about getting forward. Fulham need to get 3 points as well so I can’t see them sitting back here either.

West Ham V Man City rounds off my overs bets this weekend as the Hammers have let in 3 goals or more in 63% of home games since last season. City whilst not prolific themselves should enjoy the woeful defending on offer from the home team, although the best odds of 2.04 are not huge so just a shortlist bet here.

My final main bet is similar to one I took in April last year, which won on Spurs with a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home against an out of form Chelsea. You can get 1.83 with Bet365 and considering Redknapp’s charges have lost just 3 home games in 2 seasons, Chelsea have their work cut out here. A draw gives us a 0.41 pt profit, but I can easily see all three points going to the tome team.

A couple of final shortlist bets too with Bolton to beat Blackburn at 2.14 and Villa to beat West Brom at 2.2. Both prices I feel should be closer to evens, although some concerns that the Bolton game is a local derby where form can go pear-shaped and Villa need to bounce back from 4 losses on the bounce.

Please note – my bets next week may only appear on Saturday morning. I will be posting them as usual on the SBC Blog.

Main Bets

1 pt Over 2.5 goals Bolton V Blackburn. 1.98 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Fulham V Sunderland. 2.35 SBObet/12bet/canbet
1 pt Tottenham (+0.25 AH) V Chelsea. 1.83 Bet365/Betinternet

Shortlist Bets

1 pt Bolton to beat Blackburn. 2.14 Pinnacle
1 pt Aston Villa to beat West Brom. 2.2 Boylesports
1 pt Over 2.5 goals West Ham V Man City. 2.04 Ladbrokes

Whatever you bet on, good luck!

Mike