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The Transfer Insider Betting Column 22nd July

Posted on by Mike

This week has been a particularly difficult week in terms of transfer rumours, largely due to the fact so many teams are away on tour. That said, stuff has still been happening and it is just a case of sifting through it as we edge towards a comprehensive picture of each side’s squad.

I have news and interesting odds on potential moves for Joey Barton (8/1 to Villa) and Wesley Sneijder (7/1 to Man City) and why Cardiff at 24/1 look better value odds for the Championship than either favourites Leicester and West Ham at 9/2.

Last week you could still get 6/5 on Sergio Aguero joining Manchester City and that is basically a done deal now, but the Carlos Tevez affair has hit yet another stumbling block.  Corinthians have pulled out due to the impending closure of the Brazilian transfer window, and City have upped the price to £50million for teams in Europe.  There are probably less than five clubs who can afford this, but, to make that deal happen in the current financial climate, there is the possibility of players being traded in a player-plus-cash deal, but more on that later.

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PCB's Betting Week – 15th July

Posted on by Mike

If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.

As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.

The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.

Continue reading →

PCB’s Betting Week – 15th July

Posted on by Mike

If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.

As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.

The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.

Continue reading →

The Transfer Insider Betting Column 15th July

Posted on by Mike

It seems every week the sagas involving Carlos Tevez, Luka Modric, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas take new twists and turns so I’ll cover these four before moving on and getting into other, faster moving, speculation.

Tevez – He wants to go, City have set a figure of £50million and no one is willing to match it.  This is pretty much the excepted situation so we’ll work on that basis.  Corinthians, his first club, have made a bid in the region of £38m.  They say this is their final offer and so far City haven’t taken it, they’re probably waiting to see if Real Madrid are ready to make a better offer, or if a deal can be struck with Los Blancos involving a player-swap deal.  If no one comes in with a better offer than Corinthians they might take it.  Granted, £38m is cheap for a player of Tevez’s calibre in today’s market but he is desperate to leave and there is little chance of him coming back to haunt his former club if he’s shipped off to the other side of the world, the Brazilian outfit are 5/6 with Blue Square and 888Sport to capture the forward, City are 5/2 to keep hold and Real Madrid are 4/1 to snap him up with the same bookmakers.

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PCB’s Betting Week – 8th July

Posted on by Mike

We all know that specialisation is the key to winning money betting but how do we know where we should best apply our energies?

That’s a question I’ve been giving some thought to not least because of a thought-provoking interview in the current SBC mag which is out today.

Ben Aitken is certainly someone with an impressive take on things. His service and blog Narrow The Field focuses on dosage theory – a kind of genetic Da Vinci Code. Like me, he believes that poor quality races are a minefield for punters where a winner can literally emerge simply for being slightly fitter than the others on the day.
Continue reading →

PCB's Betting Week – 8th July

Posted on by Mike

We all know that specialisation is the key to winning money betting but how do we know where we should best apply our energies?

That’s a question I’ve been giving some thought to not least because of a thought-provoking interview in the current SBC mag which is out today.

Ben Aitken is certainly someone with an impressive take on things. His service and blog Narrow The Field focuses on dosage theory – a kind of genetic Da Vinci Code. Like me, he believes that poor quality races are a minefield for punters where a winner can literally emerge simply for being slightly fitter than the others on the day.
Continue reading →

The Transfer Insider Betting Column 8th July

Posted on by Mike

Things really are starting to heat up in the transfer market now and a lot of deals seem to be happening, finally.  Liverpool have all but sealed a deal for Blackpool’s Charlie Adam, believed to be worth around £9million.  Strangely opinion seems to be divided over Adam’s transfer, some think the Reds are paying over the odds for the Scot and have questioned whether he will be as effective at Anfield as he was at Bloomfield Road.

This is a question that can only be answered once the season is underway but personally I think it is a decent bit of business from Kenny Dalglish.  The 25-year-old Scotland international clearly has the ability to play top-flight football and even when his form dipped slightly following the January transfer window he was still the best player in the Seasiders’ team by some distance.  Adam’s range of passing hugely impressed me last season and he is also clearly a genuine dead ball specialist.

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PCB’s Betting Week – 1st July

Posted on by Mike

Why are footballers and jockeys so often unveiled as poor punters? It is a question that presents itself whenever one of their number is revealed as a chronic gambler or indeed, when they are asked to offer their lame opinions, off the cuff, as interviewees.

Being immersed in your chosen sport, you’d assume, would give you a massive betting edge but this is rarely the case. Sadly, the sporting world is full of ‘experts’ who can’t bet for all their inside knowledge. The simple reason is that a combination of too much information, irrational prejudices, poor discipline and a scant regard for the maths probabilities involved ensures that the odds always remain in the bookies’ favour. Indeed, tomorrow’s racing at Sandown offers a timely reminder that in betting, patience and methodical habits will often eclipse inside info or expert analysis as a source for finding winners.

Continue reading →

PCB's Betting Week – 1st July

Posted on by Mike

Why are footballers and jockeys so often unveiled as poor punters? It is a question that presents itself whenever one of their number is revealed as a chronic gambler or indeed, when they are asked to offer their lame opinions, off the cuff, as interviewees.

Being immersed in your chosen sport, you’d assume, would give you a massive betting edge but this is rarely the case. Sadly, the sporting world is full of ‘experts’ who can’t bet for all their inside knowledge. The simple reason is that a combination of too much information, irrational prejudices, poor discipline and a scant regard for the maths probabilities involved ensures that the odds always remain in the bookies’ favour. Indeed, tomorrow’s racing at Sandown offers a timely reminder that in betting, patience and methodical habits will often eclipse inside info or expert analysis as a source for finding winners.

Continue reading →

The Transfer Insider Betting Column 1st July

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to this week’s transfer column. I’ve added a handy little update sheet at the bottom of the page to help you plot all the major transfer ins and outs from here on in.

Don’t take it as 100% accurate as I may miss some minor deals, or get the transfer fee wrong, but all the big stuff will be on it and hopefully it will provide a decent reference point for your Premier League bets when you are considering squad changes.

De Gea – A Big Risk?

I’ll start with a few updates on some speculation covered in earlier editions, Manchester United have signed keeper David de Gea from Atletico Madrid as a replacement for Edwin van der Sar.  They’ve forked £20m and some may feel this is a bit of a risk for a 20-year-old keeper but this looks great business considering his experience in La Liga with a relatively big side, and the competition he beat off to secure the top spot in Madrid. However, the transfer has apparently not been greeted with universal approval within United’s camp, with one notable high profile scout at the club offering noted opposition behind the scenes.

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