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The Transfer Insider Betting Column 15th July

Posted on by Mike

It seems every week the sagas involving Carlos Tevez, Luka Modric, Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas take new twists and turns so I’ll cover these four before moving on and getting into other, faster moving, speculation.

Tevez – He wants to go, City have set a figure of £50million and no one is willing to match it.  This is pretty much the excepted situation so we’ll work on that basis.  Corinthians, his first club, have made a bid in the region of £38m.  They say this is their final offer and so far City haven’t taken it, they’re probably waiting to see if Real Madrid are ready to make a better offer, or if a deal can be struck with Los Blancos involving a player-swap deal.  If no one comes in with a better offer than Corinthians they might take it.  Granted, £38m is cheap for a player of Tevez’s calibre in today’s market but he is desperate to leave and there is little chance of him coming back to haunt his former club if he’s shipped off to the other side of the world, the Brazilian outfit are 5/6 with Blue Square and 888Sport to capture the forward, City are 5/2 to keep hold and Real Madrid are 4/1 to snap him up with the same bookmakers.

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PCB’s Betting Week – 8th July

Posted on by Mike

We all know that specialisation is the key to winning money betting but how do we know where we should best apply our energies?

That’s a question I’ve been giving some thought to not least because of a thought-provoking interview in the current SBC mag which is out today.

Ben Aitken is certainly someone with an impressive take on things. His service and blog Narrow The Field focuses on dosage theory – a kind of genetic Da Vinci Code. Like me, he believes that poor quality races are a minefield for punters where a winner can literally emerge simply for being slightly fitter than the others on the day.
Continue reading →

PCB's Betting Week – 8th July

Posted on by Mike

We all know that specialisation is the key to winning money betting but how do we know where we should best apply our energies?

That’s a question I’ve been giving some thought to not least because of a thought-provoking interview in the current SBC mag which is out today.

Ben Aitken is certainly someone with an impressive take on things. His service and blog Narrow The Field focuses on dosage theory – a kind of genetic Da Vinci Code. Like me, he believes that poor quality races are a minefield for punters where a winner can literally emerge simply for being slightly fitter than the others on the day.
Continue reading →

The Transfer Insider Betting Column 8th July

Posted on by Mike

Things really are starting to heat up in the transfer market now and a lot of deals seem to be happening, finally.  Liverpool have all but sealed a deal for Blackpool’s Charlie Adam, believed to be worth around £9million.  Strangely opinion seems to be divided over Adam’s transfer, some think the Reds are paying over the odds for the Scot and have questioned whether he will be as effective at Anfield as he was at Bloomfield Road.

This is a question that can only be answered once the season is underway but personally I think it is a decent bit of business from Kenny Dalglish.  The 25-year-old Scotland international clearly has the ability to play top-flight football and even when his form dipped slightly following the January transfer window he was still the best player in the Seasiders’ team by some distance.  Adam’s range of passing hugely impressed me last season and he is also clearly a genuine dead ball specialist.

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PCB’s Betting Week – 1st July

Posted on by Mike

Why are footballers and jockeys so often unveiled as poor punters? It is a question that presents itself whenever one of their number is revealed as a chronic gambler or indeed, when they are asked to offer their lame opinions, off the cuff, as interviewees.

Being immersed in your chosen sport, you’d assume, would give you a massive betting edge but this is rarely the case. Sadly, the sporting world is full of ‘experts’ who can’t bet for all their inside knowledge. The simple reason is that a combination of too much information, irrational prejudices, poor discipline and a scant regard for the maths probabilities involved ensures that the odds always remain in the bookies’ favour. Indeed, tomorrow’s racing at Sandown offers a timely reminder that in betting, patience and methodical habits will often eclipse inside info or expert analysis as a source for finding winners.

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PCB's Betting Week – 1st July

Posted on by Mike

Why are footballers and jockeys so often unveiled as poor punters? It is a question that presents itself whenever one of their number is revealed as a chronic gambler or indeed, when they are asked to offer their lame opinions, off the cuff, as interviewees.

Being immersed in your chosen sport, you’d assume, would give you a massive betting edge but this is rarely the case. Sadly, the sporting world is full of ‘experts’ who can’t bet for all their inside knowledge. The simple reason is that a combination of too much information, irrational prejudices, poor discipline and a scant regard for the maths probabilities involved ensures that the odds always remain in the bookies’ favour. Indeed, tomorrow’s racing at Sandown offers a timely reminder that in betting, patience and methodical habits will often eclipse inside info or expert analysis as a source for finding winners.

Continue reading →

The Transfer Insider Betting Column 1st July

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to this week’s transfer column. I’ve added a handy little update sheet at the bottom of the page to help you plot all the major transfer ins and outs from here on in.

Don’t take it as 100% accurate as I may miss some minor deals, or get the transfer fee wrong, but all the big stuff will be on it and hopefully it will provide a decent reference point for your Premier League bets when you are considering squad changes.

De Gea – A Big Risk?

I’ll start with a few updates on some speculation covered in earlier editions, Manchester United have signed keeper David de Gea from Atletico Madrid as a replacement for Edwin van der Sar.  They’ve forked £20m and some may feel this is a bit of a risk for a 20-year-old keeper but this looks great business considering his experience in La Liga with a relatively big side, and the competition he beat off to secure the top spot in Madrid. However, the transfer has apparently not been greeted with universal approval within United’s camp, with one notable high profile scout at the club offering noted opposition behind the scenes.

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PCB's Betting Week – 24th June

Posted on by Mike

If ever there was an object lesson of the perils of betting in management markets it comes with the appointment of Andre Villas Boas as Chelsea manager after Guus Hiddink had traded as short as 1/6 for the job, just days before.Boas first shot to prominence in the UK in 2005 when, as opposition scout for Jose Mourinho at Chelsea, one of his scouting reports was leaked onto the internet. Six years on it still makes fascinating reading.

Andre Villas Boas allegedly got his big break, when he was improbably set to work by his neighbour Sir Bobby Robson for Porto.

Aged just 16, AVB allegedly button-holed the venerated Geordie boss, in the apartment block where both men lived, and suggested that the manager look to involve Domingos Paciência, the current Braga coach, in Porto’s games more regularly. The rest as they say is history…

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PCB’s Betting Week – 24th June

Posted on by Mike

If ever there was an object lesson of the perils of betting in management markets it comes with the appointment of Andre Villas Boas as Chelsea manager after Guus Hiddink had traded as short as 1/6 for the job, just days before.Boas first shot to prominence in the UK in 2005 when, as opposition scout for Jose Mourinho at Chelsea, one of his scouting reports was leaked onto the internet. Six years on it still makes fascinating reading.

Andre Villas Boas allegedly got his big break, when he was improbably set to work by his neighbour Sir Bobby Robson for Porto.

Aged just 16, AVB allegedly button-holed the venerated Geordie boss, in the apartment block where both men lived, and suggested that the manager look to involve Domingos Paciência, the current Braga coach, in Porto’s games more regularly. The rest as they say is history…

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The Transfer Insider Betting Column 24th June

Posted on by Mike

The Transfer Insider – June 24th

Welcome to this the latest column from Ed Darnell of the Smart Betting Club focusing on all the transfer window news with a betting perspective. Ed will be reporting back on all the latest developments every Friday at the SBC Blog.

I’ve covered Manchester United and the other title contenders so this week I’ll turn my attentions to the promoted sides.  I’m not a proven tipster, but as this is for the SBC I’ll run through a few odds and have an overall look at the market first off, offering my thoughts along the way.

Personally, I’m not a fan of getting into the outright markets at this stage of things.  Too much can happen between now and the start of the season, although we do have the benefit of the fixture schedule, but then again, if you can try and gauge where the market may go then there is money to be made.

I’ve used bet365 for the following odds, but a quick comparison with Skybet and William Hill show very similar trends in terms of favourites for relegation, and Swansea are the massive favourites.  They’re 4/7 with bet365 and Skybet, and an abysmal 4/9 with William Hill, but why? Because they came up in the play-offs? That’s the only reason I can see.  Swansea have been in and around the top teams in the Championship ever since they won promotion from the third tier in 2008, missing out on the top six by small margins for two years before their success last time out, but more on why I reckon they can make a fight of it later. In contrast Norwich have won two promotions in a row and arguably overachieved last season (based on the fact their squad from League One didn’t change that much), yet, presumably because they finished, they’re a slightly better 4/6 to be relegated with bet365.

This isn’t to say I think Norwich are certainly heading for the drop, but I would argue Swansea stand a better chance of staying up at present.  QPR are a different animal altogether and will probably be able to attract a better standard of player, so I’ll deal with them last.

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