Have a read of the first post here to make sense of this little tracking experiment:
A bit late in posting these, but luckily I wrote down the ratings and odds the other day.
The Castrol ratings for Friday’s matches are as follows. I’ve added in the best odds and whether they represent value according to the ratings. If the best odds are above the castrol predicted value level then we take that bet. The ratings are for the match result including over time and penalties not 90 mins.
Green means value. Red means no value. Chances & odds based on ‘to qualify’ i.e. including O/T & penalties
1. Holland vs Brazil
Holland: 44% Chance -> Value odds: 2.27-> Best odds 2.70 Blue Sq
Brazil: 56% Chance -> Value odds: 1.79-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James.
Castrol give Holland just a 44% chance of winning, but that’s the value bet with the best odds of 2.70 implying just a 37% chance. Certainly little value in backing Brazil at 1.53. For this match I prefer the Holland +0.5 Handicap at 1.98 with SBObet.
2. Uruguay vs Ghana
Uruguay : 73% Chance -> Value odds: 1.37-> Best odds 1.53 Stan James
Ghana: 27% Chance -> Value odds: 3.70-> Best odds 2.63
The bookmakers rightly favour Uruguay according to Castrol, but are being too generous with the odds on Uruguay. Uruguay to qualify at 1.53 is the value bet.