Liverpool are a team with a famous home record and despite Stevie G’s latest injury and the frightening prospect of Christian Poulsen replacing him, they look under-rated to beat West Ham this weekend. Avram Grant may look like a funeral director and he is certainly giving off the air of a dead-man walking as he looks not long for the Upton Park hotseat. After watching the Hammers last week their strikers would struggle to finish their tea and they have a woeful away record in recent times. Roy Hodgson often has a very good home record with his teams and Liverpool to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at 2.12 with SBObet looks a quality bet to me.
Mark Hughes will be the focus of attention on Sunday as his new charges Fulham host Man City, in a game you just know he will have his team fired up for. Fulham have a very good home record and only lost to Spurs at the Cottage recently thanks to a dodgy referee decision. The 1.91 from SBObet on the home team with a +0.25 Asian Handicap means a decent profit even if they draw and I am backing them here.
Bolton is famous for a few things in my eyes – Phoenix Nights, Big Sam’s double chin and of course the fact they have been criminally under-rated by the bookies this season. After watching the likes of Johan Elmander look more like Johan Cruyff last weekend, with his amazing goal against Wolves, you would think more people would be backing them. They remain a very well drilled Premier league outfit and I fancy them at 2.20 to beat an inconsistent Newcastle.
Elsewhere I am backing another team with a strong home record as I feel Blackburn will provide Aston Villa’s youngsters with a very tough physical challenge and may well have too much for them. As impressive as they were against a depleted United side last week, an away-day battering at Ewood Park may represent a totally different experience for Houllier’s youthful team and I am siding with Big Sam’s outfit to overcome a -0.25 Handicap at 1.98 with Ladbrokes.
Finally a couple of under and over 2.5 goals bets, firstly at West Brom, who host a Stoke team shot-shy on the road. Last season Stoke went unders in 74% of all away games and West Brom have been under in 67% of games this season. Neither team look particularly potent up front and the 1.85 on under 2.5 goals with Expekt rates this as a 54% chance. I think it’s more of a 60% chance and so am having a bet.
One shortlist bet is Everton away at Sunderland, where the over 2.5 goals looks too big at 2.42, which is a 41% chance. Everton went overs in 58% of all away games and Sunderland in 47% of all homes games last season. Neither team has been banging them in this year as yet but that will change and I think the likely % chance is closer to 50%, so we have value there.
Main Bets
1.5 pt Fulham (+0.25 AH) V Man City. 1.91 Betinternet/SBObet
1.5 pt Liverpool (-0.75 AH) V West Ham. 2.12 12bet/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat Newcastle. 2.20 Totesport
1 pt Blackburn (-0.25 AH) V Aston Villa. 1.98 Ladbrokes
1 pt Under 2.5 Goals – West Brom V Stoke. 1.85 Expekt
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 Goals – Sunderland V Everton. 2.42 12bet/SBObet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike