Welcome to our latest column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman tipster service.
Each Friday, Scott will be provide us with a rundown of all the best weekend racing action – all the key horses to follow and those to oppose. You can also find a recap from him each Monday on the SBC Blog with his reaction to the weekend’s events. Thorough, frank and not afraid to take a contrary view Scott Armstrong is a racing man whose opinion you can’t afford to be without.
Scott is a relatively new addition to the SBC family but is already proving a popular addition. In last Friday’s column he highlighted Excelebration at 11/4 who duly obliged for followers at Newbury. This week Scott dons his deerstalker and pipe in an attempt to solve the conundrum that is Saturday’s flagship race at York – the Ebor Handicap.
Scott’s suggestion, as you’ll see below is to follow a master trainer who has a fantastic record with four and five yr olds at York. He has a 12/1 shot lined up for York this week that could offer some strong each way value.
A fine day of racing is in prospect on Saturday with a large crowd is anticipated in the glorious Fair City of Perth.
Donald McCain’s Overturn leads the charge in the Scottish Champion hurdle but it’s all eyes stage left though to York’s Ebor meeting – the Royal Ascot of the North.
This year’s Ebor Handicap the flagship race of the meeting is a very strong renewal. This iconic Class Two event for three-year olds and upwards is a conundrum that Sherlock Holmes would struggle to solve.
In a very open affair the winner can pop up from anywhere in the betting market and it’s often best to look at the longer priced runners in order to secure some value.
Over the past ten years the winner’s enclosure has welcomed horses at 25-1, 20-1 and 100-1 victor Mudwain in 2006. In the same timescale only three single figure priced horses have emerged triumphant.
Currently three horses, Lost In The Moment, Modun and Saptapadi are single figure prices in the bookmakers markets. Lost In The Moment from the Godolphin stable was subject of a market plunge earlier in the month after a strong finish to take second to stable mate Opinion Poll in the Goodwood Cup – and that was despite encountering trouble in running.
Lost In The Moment showed up well on his latest run over a longer distance and is on a good mark. The four-year old colt holds a proud racing record of finishing in the first two placings in over 50% of the events he has competed in. Lost In The Moment is admirably consistent but short enough in the market at 6-1. With only one favourite landing the odds over the past decade he can be looked over.
Brian Ellison’s Saptapadi is strong in the betting market at a best priced 7-1. Campaigned specifically for this race the five-year old gelding should feel at home over the one mile six furlong’s being a full-brother to Sagaro Stakes winner Patkai. Fifth in the John Smith’s cup Saptapadi was full of running at the end of the 11 furlong encounter and the further trip on Saturday should be to his liking. The Ellison camp are sending out strong signals with a big run expected. Saptaadi is short enough in the market though, with the booking of Kieran Fallon seeing the odds tumble, and he is in danger of being overbet.
Michael Stoute’s Great Ebor Record
Michael Stoute’s four and five year olds have a great record at the Ebor meeting over the past seven meetings producing seven winners from twenty-seven runners and a £100 level stakes profit of £2475.00.
Stoute has two players in this year’s race Modun, currently sat second favourite in the layers’ lists and as short as 9-2 jolly with Blue Square. Modun finished down the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot in June while stable companion Blissful Moment was second. Nonetheless Modun shows market prominence here. This is owing to Modun having run a great effort subsequently in the John Smith’s Cup at York, proving his liking for the track.
My preference is for Stoute’s runner Blissful Moment who is on a decent mark having been subject to only a 2lb rise for his second placing to Fox Hunt in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap.
Stoute is known for his patient approach with his charges and Blissful Moment symbolises this having only eight career runs.
The form of the Duke of Edinburgh stands up well with the third, fifth and sixth in the race all winning worthwhile events since. Fox Hunt has appeared subsequently running second to in-form trainer, Michael Bell’s Tactician in a one mile six furlong Listed handicap at York and fourth in the two mile Group 2 Goodwood Cup. A line through Fox Hunt gives Blissful Moment the beating of Tactician and leaves him nothing to find with Lost In The Moment. Blissful Moment should prove progressive and is a key player in the race.
Ted Spread is another candidate on the short list. This four-year old gelding has been showing sparkling work alongside the filly Brushing on Mark Tompkins gallop and can go well.
This is a very tough handicap to predict, my choice would be Blissful Moment in his attempt to give Michael Stoute a fourth success in the race and he’s worthy of an each-way play at 12-1.