The SBC Guide To Betting On The Copa America

Last Saturday’s Champions League final between Barcelona and Juventus might have signaled the traditional end of the European football season, yet will be still be plenty of action to bet upon over in South America this June and July – with the start of the Copa America tournament.

Featuring all the South American heavyweight teams and players, the Copa America starts on Thursday the 11th on June and is taken deadly seriously in South America – its effectively their equivalent of the Euros, thus ensuring there will be plenty of competitive football for us to bet upon for the next month.

Already the bookies are getting busy putting together all kinds of special offers and deals but for those of you unfamiliar with South American football and the Copa America, we have put together a special guide to help explain it all.

The SBC Guide To The Copa America

If you’re not familiar with the Copa America tournament, then I hope you soon will be. It encompasses talent, passion, skill, rivalry and all the colour of a World Cup, with some South America flair.

This year’s edition will be held in the wonderful country of Chile, and it’ll be the 44^th edition of the competition. It’s a particularly exciting time to start following the Copa, as this is the first of two tournaments taking place in the next 12 months.

With 2016 due to be the 100 year celebration of CONMEBOL, the federation has organised a second Copa America to take place in the United States of America, and unusually it will feature 16 teams from two federations.

This year’s edition features just 12 teams, with two of those being guests from the North American region governed by CONCACAF. Mexico and Jamaica are the special guests of this year’s Copa, but it’s hard to expect much from either nation.

History

Whilst it may not be as well covered as the likes of a World Cup or the Euros over here, the Copa is huge. It was first hosted all the way back in 1916, 100 years ago. It is the oldest active international continental football competition.

The first edition of the competition saw just four teams compete in a round robin format. Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay were the competitors, and it was the Uruguayan’s who lifted the trophy on Argentinean soil.

It was the first of many trophies for a nation that has exceeded all expectations for its size, and Uruguay went on to add a further 14 Copa’s to their trophy cabinet, including the most recent edition in 2011.

In the earlier years, the competition was almost a yearly event with the same four teams competing. On occasion, Paraguay would replace Chile. Since the continual group of the tournament, it’s become a four yearly event that’s not featured on the FIFA Calendar.

It took Chile until 1926 (10 Copa tournaments) to register their first win in the competition, but as hosts of this year’s event, hopes are high.

Format

It’s no secret that Brazil are one of the most successful nations in the history of our wonderful sport, but that aside, the South American region continues to grow stronger and stronger. At the start of play, four of the 12 sides featured rank in the World Top 10.

Argentina (2), Colombia (3), Brazil (6) and Uruguay (8) are the big four here, but the draw dictated that Chile could only meet two of those at best, avoiding Argentina and Brazil.

The host nation, as is tradition, earned the right to enter themselves in to pot one of the draw along with the two highest ranked teams, Argentina and Brazil. That means they cannot meet each other in the group stages, and the draw went as follows.

Group A is home to the hosts, and Chile arguably have the easiest group as the home nations conveniently often do. They will meet Mexico, Bolivia and Ecuador.

Group B has pitted tournament favourites Argentina against Uruguay, Paraguay and Jamaica, making their progress a foregone conclusion also.

Group C has Brazil facing Colombia, Peru and Venezuela. On paper you’d think qualification will be easy for the Brazilians and, well, you’d be right.

The group stage naturally follows in to a knockout competition where we’ll see the following matches.

Winner of Group A vs. Third Place Group B/C
Runner Up Group A vs. Runner Up Group C
Winner Group B vs. Third Place Group A/C
Winner Group C vs. Runner Up Group B

From there, the semi-finals, final and third place playoff game are played until we have our winner and runners ups.

The Teams

Argentina: Argentina are everyone’s favourites to win the tournament, and the bookmakers support that thought. There are three teams capable of topping the favourites, though, so it’s not a foregone conclusion. It has to be noted they haven’t won the Copa since 1993, and on four occasions since haven’t even made the final four. Their squad this year is indeed a terrific one, but it’s been a very long season for the likes of Mascherano and Messi, and I do question the quality of their defence.
Prediction: Group B Winners with potential to win it all

Brazil: If Argentina are to exit the competition, then Brazil will naturally become the favourites. Again, you can see why, but I’m not convinced. They have 7 Copa titles which is second to only Uruguay, but big tournament failings have been a problem during recent tournaments. Elimination to Paraguay in the last Copa and embarrassing failings in their own World Cup leave Brazil with plenty of questions to answer.
Prediction: Group C Runner Up with potential to win it all

Bolivia: Bolivia are sandwiched between Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia in our preview. There’s probably a joke to be made there, because they’ll be nothing more than an irrelevant piece of the puzzle stood in the way of Chile, Mexico and Ecuador in their group. They aren’t bad enough to label whipping boys, and they may even had a surprise in them. In reality, this group belongs to Chile and Bolivia will have a tough task against both Ecuador and Mexico as they battle for points and goal difference to secure second place. Bolivia did recently come close to stunning Chile in Antofagasta, but I don’t expect that with the stakes this high. Bolivia tend to concede too many goals and only prosper in ridiculous altitude.
Prediction: Fourth in Group A

Chile: The hosts are going to come in to this tournament as considerable underdogs to Brazil and Argentina, but they have what it take to beat them. They fell narrowly short against Brazil in the World Cup, but they gave it a real good go. On their own turf I think they have the beating of them. This is a team that has been improving for years and building towards this tournament, and they could push themselves in to the World’s Top 10.
Prediction: Group A Winners with potential to win it all

Colombia: Much like Chile, I think this team is undervalued going in to the tournament and they’ll be happy about it. Rodriguez is obviously the man of the moment, but it’s full of electric pace and raw attacking talent. Colombia have more options that ever with the continual emergence of their stars in Europe. Ramos, Rodriguez, Cuadrado, Sanchez, Guarin and Quintero all have a part to play. They’re in particularly good form having won six games coming in to this, and they’re more than a contender to win the competition.
Prediction: Group C Winners with potential to win it all

Ecuador: Ecuador are one of many in a group of teams that it’s hard to expect that much from. We’ve seen in recent years that it’s not always easy to write off the true underdogs in this competition, but they’re in a tough group and they have a big job on their hands. I do however think they present some value, as Mexico shouldn’t be favoured to finish above them in the group stages. Qualification for the knockout stages isn’t out of the question, but don’t expect anything more.
Prediction: Second in Group A followed by elimination

Jamaica: Entering the tournament as the lowest ranked team, Jamaica’s fate is sealed. I understand how it all works when it comes to inviting special guests, but if you’re going to invite teams from CONCACAF with any expectations, you need to be inviting two of Mexico, USA or Costa Rica. They’re in a group with the world number two and whilst I expect hearty performances that epitomise Jamaican spirit, I expect them to go home on the back of zero points and some rather harsh results.
Prediction: Fourth in Group B in calamitous style

Mexico: The Mexicans have long been the dominant force of the CONCACAF region, but I believe that un-official title has been under threat by the United States for several years now. Mexico are still a strong team with the ability to compete at this level, but I think they’re truly out of their depth against the likes of the big four. They’ve been handed a group where qualification is possible and they’ve even favourites to take second. Despite that, I think they’ll fall short against Chile and Ecuador, but they’re a very entertaining side that should provide us with plenty of drama.
Prediction: Third in Group A, facing elimination if they do qualify

Paraguay: It wouldn’t be the first time Paraguay pulled off a shock in winning the Copa America, but it would be just that this year – a monumental shock. They’re facing an up-hill task from the start as both Uruguay and Argentina will want to be on maximum points before facing each other in game two. Recent failures to score against Mexico, Costa Rica and the UAE, coupled with conceding multiple goals against China, Korea and Peru demonstrate Paraguay just aren’t good enough.
Prediction: Third in Group C, likely to see off Jamaica

Peru: Much like Paraguay, the best Peru can probably hope for is a result against Venezuela to try and steal the third place in the group, which could be enough to qualify. They’ll likely be the next best thing as Brazil and Colombia finish on at least six points and battle it out to win the group. Despite that though, Peru lost to Venezuela just seven weeks ago, and the recent head to head has seen them win back to back games against Gareca’s men.
Prediction: Favoured to pinch third, but the winner of Peru vs. Venezuela decides that

Uruguay: The defending Champions have a record 15 titles to their name. Unfortunately for them, their draw means there is no chance of them slipping under the radar. They’ll do well to finish above Argentina, and a meeting with Brazil or Colombia is likely. It won’t phase them and they’re capable of beating any of those teams on the way to another title. However, it’s a big ask to conquer all of those teams in the process. The good news is they can say they’ve won their last meetings with Chile, Argentina and Colombia. The bad news is they’ve lost their last five meetings with their most likely knockout opponent, Brazil.
Prediction: Group B Runner Up, tough ask after that

Venezuela: Whilst they aren’t the lowest ranked team in the tournament, they’re by far the lowest ranked team in their group. As we’ve already mentioned, first or second is out of the question. Goal difference could be crucial to make a push for third place in the group, and they’ll be glad their recent meeting with Peru ended in victory. Being that goal difference is so decisive, I wouldn’t fancy them to qualify even if they did finish third. It should be a competitive meeting with Peru, and goal difference obtained in the remaining games should be damaging.
Prediction: Could potentially steal third, but won’t qualify

The Verdict

It’s going to be a fantastic tournament as always and whilst Argentina and Brazil are the favourites to lift the trophy, I really do think the winner could come from one of Colombia, Uruguay or Chile.

This tournament never fails to deliver and despite Brazil and Argentina having double figures in titles between them, there’s always a surprise to be had, even in the final. I don’t see any true outsiders making a run this year, but Ecuador or Mexico are the ones with potential should they sneak through in second place.

As a betting man, I wouldn’t want to bet against the likes of Argentina or Brazil, but I wouldn’t want to bet on them either. I think when all is said and done, Chile will do no worse than win the third place play-off on home soil.

Whoever wins or whoever you’re betting on, it promises to be another wonderful Copa America tournament.