If we are to take a lesson from a very low key sporting week it is that patience is really has to be one of the key betting virtues.
As punters we all want to win every week and see the bank balance ticking upwards. When there’s nothing doing we want to force the pace and when results don’t fall our way we want to tinker and change things because we believe we must be doing something wrong. Learning from mistakes is important, and something we should never shy away from, but drawing wrong conclusions either from insufficient evidence or from a diet of poor betting fare is a fault we all inherently have.
The key thing to remember about your betting is to remember that if your approach was the right thing to do a week ago, or a month ago, it is probably still the right thing to do now.
And equally, if there isn’t anything you fancy you need the discipline to keep your dough in your pocket. Profits are hard won and easily handed back after all.
Certainly, the schedulers responsible for this week’s British Open deserve a gold star for positioning there flagship event in a week when pretty much nothing much else is happening. In racing its the lull before the storm that is Glorious Goodwood and the start of the football season still feels some way off, with the English sides are playing their opening round of friendlies.
Value Siding With Consistent Kaymer at 14/1
It’s an odd looking field at Royal St Georges with Darren Clarke landing amongst the leaders on Friday with a 4-under 68 and the American veteran Tom Watson rolling back the years with some more British Open magic after his hole-in-one at the sixth hole brightened up the second round.
However with bad weather forecast for tomorrow morning prior to improvement later in the day it seems unlikely that anyone not already in contention come the end of play on Friday will hold a realistic chance of making up ground on the leaders. As a result, the ultimate winner is likely to already be positioned within the leading pack.
Martin Kaymer at around 14/1 must have a decent chance. He is a consistent performer and as a former major winner, his pedigree suggests he is unlikely to crack under the pressure of the final day.
Watch Out For Richard Hannon’s Horses in the Supersprint
While its eyes front in anticipation of Glorious Goodwood – and the hotly anticipated showdown between this season’s stars Frankel and Canford Cliffs – this weekend offers uncharacteristically meagre fare.
The best of slim pickings arguably comes at Newbury tomorrow and the Supersprint, a race that is typically a Richard Hannon carve up. The Marlborough-based trainer has two in the race. Stable jockey Richard Hughes is on the favourite, Eureka, but slight preference is for Red Act as an each way alternative. Normally a challenge from Richard Fahey’s yard would have to be respected. However, with four runners in this Supersprint, it could be that the Yorkshireman is operating on the ‘throw mud at the wall and hope some sticks’ principle here.
At Market Rasen, Paul Nicholls Classic Swain could be worth an each way interest. However as with all Nicholls’ runners the market is likely to speak to the horse’s chance. Basically you should look to swerve runners from the Nicholls’ yard whenever they show signs of weakness in the market – if they drift they don’t tend to win.
Over in Ireland, Wonder of Wonders is being supported as if defeat is out of the question in the Irish Oaks. It is easy to see why. The Newmarket vibes confirm the impression that this is not a vintage year for British fillies and it is hard to find a solid challenger. If the favourite is still available at evens come race time it could prove to be a strong bet on an otherwise low key weekend.
Another option tonight – confirming the impressions that slim pickings is today’s theme with a wider resonance this week – comes in the form of Ryan Moore’s Newmarket booking on Poppyseed tonight at 5/1. An inspiration for weight watchers everywhere, Moore, the former champion jockey, boasts a stunning ROI of 70% whenever he rides at 8st 7ibs or less.
Riding off 8st 5lbs tonight, the notoriously reticent, Moore is unlikely to be talking up his claims to all and sundry this evening but nonetheless, this could be an occasion where the stats on the jockey’s riding weight do his talking for him.