In his fabled ‘Art of War’ book, Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said
“If you know both yourself and your enemy, you can win numerous battles without jeopardy.”
And so it is when it comes to the age old battle of Bookmaker vs. Punter, the more we understand about the enemy, the more we might be able to profit.
Which is exactly why in the latest SBC magazine, we feature an exclusive interview with a bookie mole, who helps reveals some eye-opening facts about how they work – and where we can take advantage.
To give you a flavour of this, I want to share with you a taster of what ‘John’ had to say with a few extracts from the interview…
SBC: What betting markets should we be looking for specifically?
John: I would always try and look at markets where compilers are likely to be working off a chart for their prices rather than pricing them manually in the first place. A really good example is Betfred who got ‘filled in’, losing a pile on their both teams to score markets all last season. So much so, that they have probably single-handedly established a consumer demand for that type of bet.
They were offering an across the board 4/5 for both teams to score. That was a price quoted regardless of the likelihood of a high number of goals in specific games and obviously the more goals that get scored, the more open the game becomes and therefore, the increased likelihood of both teams scoring. It may have been a marketing thing on the part of Betfred but there is no doubt it cost them fortunes. They have adjusted slightly but there are many occasions where their prices are out in games with a high likelihood of goals.
I’d also say, if you can spot one area of weakness in a firm’s prices, like this, where their response to a specific market looks chart-based rather than intuitive, then the chances are you’ll be able to spot other similar opportunities with the same bookies. It is a massive clue that the compilers are undervalued and overworked and it is also an opportunity for you. You should take the hint and scrutinise their prices thereafter in similar markets.
SBC: What is a typical example of a football compiler’s workload and how is it likely to affect their ability to work effectively?
John:Most compilers cover 4-10 leagues, with an emphasis on the numbers nearer 10 than four in most cases. Those same compilers are also expected to generate in-running and fixed odds prices for them all. There just isn’t time for reflection or even keeping track of all the minutiae of your respective leagues and because you are working you don’t get much opportunity to go to games. Compilers are always going to be vulnerable to information on teams or games that isn’t in the public domain – especially if it’s something you have seen yourself at a game that is not likely to be known such as a key injury where you know an important player such as a keeper, central defender or striker won’t recover in time to make the next match.
If you are looking for a clear example of bookies cutting costs then Ladbrokes would be a good place to look. Apparently they are getting rid of loads of traders, and the rumour is they’ve cut their horse racing team in half for example. If that’s the case and it could very well be so based on my source, then Ladbrokes now have half the traders doing double the work they used to. That has simply got to be good for the punter…..however you look at it.
Read More In The Latest SBC Magazine
If you want to read more from ‘John’ we have further insight in the full interview, which is available in the latest Smart Betting Club Magazine including…
- The bookies who are weak on busy betting days
- How to best exploit goal scoring markets and the players to look for
- The markets to steer clear of where the bookie profit margins are huge
- His own angles for profitable betting with the bookies.
