Plenty of very appealing bets this weekend and it’s proven hard to narrow them down as lots tick the boxes.
One of my strongest is at Upton Park where I expect goals as Harry Redknapp returns to one of his former teams – West Ham. The Hammers saw over 2.5 goals in 61% of all games, whilst Spurs did so in 58% of their matches last season – a trend that is continuing this year. The overs at 2.00 with Skybet suggests they have this as a 50% chance, whereas 60% seems more likely especially considering the home sides shaky defence. Hopefully Robert Green will be in nets!
I am also continuing my backing of Arsenal to overcome a 2 goal margin at home against bottom half teams (see my previous analysis here). They should have too much for West Brom but it’s worth noting as well that a lot of the Gunners goals come late in the 2nd half when they have worn these teams down. You can get 4/1 on a HT/FT result of Draw/Arsenal, which also doesn’t look too bad.
In the Saturday lunchtime kick-off we have the first real test of Chelsea this season who travel up to Eastlands for a crunch game. With 2 Italian managers in charge I think this could be a tight defensive affair and we have already seen how Mancini is lining up with De Jong, Barry & Toure solid in midfield. Since Bobby Manc (as the natives know him) took over, City have played 10 games against top 8 teams with 7 of these going under 2.5 goals. The 1.96 on this suggests a 51% chance of happening and I rate it more likely than that.
Over at Craven Cottage, I also spy a value bet on Fulham who take on an out-of-sorts Everton, who have a miserable record at this ground. 12bet and SBOBet offer 1.99 on Fulham with a 0 Asian Handicap, which I feel is value. I also continue to want to side with the over 2.5 goals on Blackpool who will persist with their attacking approach in the derby against Blackburn. The 1.91 on this with a number of bookies is a shortlist bet.
Other bets under consideration that missed out included under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and Stoke, although at 1.8 this looked fairly short. The same reasoning precluded me from advising Birmingham to beat Wigan at 1.87, a price that is a bit on the skinny side for me.
Main Bets
1.5 pts West Ham V Spurs – Over 2.5 goals. 2.0 Skybet (early pick from Thursday)
1 pt Arsenal (-1.75 AH) V West Brom. 1.95 Bet365
1 pt Man City – Chelsea – Under 2.5 goals. 1.96 Canbet/12bet/SBObet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Fulham (0 AH) V Everton. 1.99 SBObet/12bet
1 pt Blackpool – Blackburn. Over 2.5 goals. 1.91 Pinnacle/SBObet/Canbet/10bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike