Happy to see the back of last weekend with all the derby games and draws that no doubt did for many a betting accumulator. A lot more value betting opportunities have sprung forth for this next round of games and I am expecting goals!
This is because I have quite a few over 2.5 goal bets this weekend, starting over at Bloomfield Road, where you can get a very tasty 1.9 in the game between Blackpool and Sunderland. Perhaps the bookies are over-reacting to Darren Bent’s move but the facts are that the Seasiders have gone overs in 100% of all home games this season and it’s a high-scoring trend that has been in place ever since Ian Holloway has been in charge. Sunderland will perhaps be better suited to playing just Asamoah Gyan upfront as a target man away and as always with Blackpool games, there is plenty of goal-mouth action!
Newcastle & Spurs are two other teams not noted for defensive solidity and indeed Spurs have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home this season whereas the Toon have gone over 2.5 goals in 73% of all fixtures at St James Park. The overs line is 1.91 with Pinnacle, which estimates a 52.3% chance, and I make it closer to 60% in my book.
My third overs bet is in the midday kick off game featuring Wolves and Liverpool and both teams have struggled to stem the flow of goals this season. Wolves have gone overs in 55% of home games, whereas Liverpool have the same 55% marker away from home. Looking at it logically as well, both teams look very shaky at the back and if Torres fires up again, there should be goals. Dalglish will see this as a must-win game also. 10bet are offering 2.22 on the overs line, which is a 45% chance and looks too big for me.
I have one Main Asian Handicap bet on perennial favourites Bolton who you can back with a +1 start at 1.85 at home to Chelsea. Bolton are formidable at the Reebok, losing only once there this season against Liverpool (and rather unluckily so in my opinion). Chelsea as we know are far from convincing these days and have won just 3 away this season at Blackburn, West Ham and Wigan. I certainly can’t see more than a 1 goal win if Ancelotti’s men do get their act together and am siding with the Trotters once again, who have served me so well this season.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Blackpool V Sunderland 1.90. Canbet/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Newcastle V Spurs. 1.91 Pinnacle
1 pt Over 2.5 goals. Wolves V Liverpool. 2.22 10Bet
1 pt Bolton (+1 AH) V Chelsea. 1.84 Ladbrokes/12bet
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Over 2.25 goals. Fulham V Stoke. 2.12 Pinnacle
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike