An early look at the next round of fixtures for Boxing Day and the 27th, although ultimately a number of these maybe called off if the bad weather continues.
One likely casualty if it snows (thanks to the lack of under-soil heating) is the game at Bloomfield Road where Blackpool host Liverpool in a game the scousers will be keen for revenge after the shock loss at Anfield a few months back. The Seasiders are better away from home while Liverpool suffer regular travel-sickness and look very wobbly at the back. I see plenty of goalmouth action in this one and with 12Bet offering a very generous 1.82 on over 2.5 goals, it looks worth snapping up to me.
Similarly in the games featuring Man Utd and Sunderland and Chelsea and Arsenal I think the over 2.5 goals lines are too generous. Man Utd have gone overs in 67% of home games this season and 84% last season and if Sunderland persist with playing 3 up-front the 1.77 looks a decent punt (albeit only shortlist quality as I would want a smidge more odds-wise for a Main Bet). You can also get 1.95 on over 2.5 goals in the game at the Emirates, which represents a 51.2% chance, and as I make it more likely a 55% chance, will take this bet too. Chelsea are surely also too good to go too long before improving back to early season standards and they seem under-rated for a fixture they have dominated in recent times – The 2.08 on them with a 0 AH line with Bet365 looks a decent shortlist bet.
Two more main bets including Aston Villa with a surprisingly good 1.92 on a +0.25 Asian Handicap at home to Spurs. Villa for all their woes have lost just once at home this year and just three times last season so with a 0.46 point profit if it’s a draw this looks a good punt. Finally Bolton’s odds again look too good on them at 2.08 to beat West Brom at the Reebok. This large price looks like an over-reaction to the fact they have narrowly lost 2 tough away games recently, but at home they are very strong indeed. I think Bolton should be odds-on here and so snapping this one up.
Finally I want to back Wolves at 2.22 against a poor Wigan side, who especially struggle on the road. Since last season, the latics have lost 18 out of 27 away from home and whilst Wolves are hardly prolific themselves, they look to be over-priced. Unlikely to be a game for the purists, 1-0 is the most likely result I imagine.
Please note I will do my level best to get my advice for the 28th and 29th games up in good time, although as I am away for a few days over Christmas I may struggle with an Internet connection! Keep an eye on the blog on the 28th and over the festive period.
Main Bets
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Blackpool V Liverpool. 1.82 12Bet
1 pt Aston Villa (+0.25 AH) V Spurs. 1.92 188bet
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Chelsea V Arsenal. 1.95 Pinnacle/SJ/188bet/SBObet
1 pt Bolton to beat West Brom. 2.08 188bet/5dimes
Shortlist Bets
1 pt Wolves to beat Wigan. 2.22 12Bet
1 pt Chelsea (0 AH) V Arsenal. 2.08 Bet365
1 pt Over 2.5 goals Man Utd V Sunderland. 1.77 10Bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike