With the return of the Premier League this weekend and the major European leagues soon to follow suit, its back into the swing of things football wise.
The temptation when the season re-starts is to rush in and place a whole load of bets as your betting money has been burning a hole in your pocket for a while. It can be a dangerous thing to do as the bookies know this so want you to risk too much straight away.
Most football fans are the same at the start of the new season as no matter how badly their team went last year there is this feeling that things could be different. Often it is for no reason other than the bad memories from last year have now gone – however give it a few weeks and it very often all comes flooding back!
Therefore it’s a gentle start to the season for me this weekend with 1 small main bet and 2 shortlist bets only (these are my next best selections) and more of a watching brief than anything.
A game such as Spurs – Man City is very difficult to predict (City could be anything this year) and with Aston Villa now managerless and usually stronger away from home, the odds-on price for them to beat West Ham this weekend does not appeal.
My 1 main bet actually features a good ol northern derby as pie-eaters Wigan host stag-do central Blackpool in the away sides first ever Premier League game. Even Tony Cascarino could pick out Blackpool as a team to struggle this year but I am keen to exploit the over 2.5 goals market in their games as they are set-up to attack and will definitely let in a lot of goals at the back. Their opponents Wigan are perennially dodgy defensively (Gary Caldwell) but look to have a decent set of strikers this year.
I see goals in this game and don’t quite understand why 5Dimes and SBOBet are offering 2.21 on the over 2.5 goals market and I thought I would show my calculations on why i see it as value. Odds of 2.21 equates the chance of this happening to only a 45% likelihood. Last year Wigan went over 2.5 goals in 58% of games whilst Blackpool did in 59% of games. Thus combined, the 58.5% chance likelihood indicates odds of 1.72 in this market to be more accurate. Consider as well that last season 53% of games in the Premier League went over 2.5 goals and it really sticks out as value. We are being offered 2.21, when the true value lies at around 1.70-1.80. Were it not the first game of the season I would make this more than just a 1 pt bet.
My other shortlist bets include Bolton who play Fulham at home, which is the type of game they always target for 3 points. Even Roy Hodgson couldn’t improve the Cottagers form on the road much and so the -0.25 Asian Handicap on the Trotters with 12Bet appeals at 1.94. Mark Hughes will probably set out Fulham to be very hard to beat so a half loss if it’s a draw is OK.
Blackburn are another team perennially under-rated at home and they seem too large with a 0 Asian Handicap at 2.22 with 188Bet against Everton. The visitors were one of the few teams to win at Ewood Park last year (they threw caution to the wind that day) but Big Sam’s team won’t lose many at home this season.
Main Bet
1 pt Wigan V Blackpool. Over 2.5 Goals. 2.21 5Dimes/SBObet
Shortlist
1 pt Bolton (-0.25 AH) V Fulham. 1.94 12Bet
1 pt Blackburn (0 AH) V Everton. 2.22 188Bet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike