First a quick update on performance so far…
This Season
Main Bets: 6 bets, 6.5 pts staked, 1.42 pts profit, 40.57% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 5 bets, 5 pts staked, 1.65 pts profit, 33% ROI
Total (including last season)
Main Bets: 70 bets, 85 pts staked, 12.08 pts profit, 14.21% ROI
Shortlist Bets: 12 bets, 12 pts staked, 1.01 pts profit, 8.42% ROI
This weeks bets
Blackburn host Fulham on Saturday where Big Sam has quietly turned Ewood Park into a fortress with very few visiting teams likely to leave with all 3 points. They won 8 of their 11 home games last season against the bottom 12, whereas Fulham lost 5 out of 11 on the road against the same group. I equate the likelihood of a home win to be around 1.80 (effectively a 55% chance) and with 2.10 (47% chance) on offer with Ladbrokes, Paddy Power & Skybet this stands out as value to me.
Its a similar story as Stoke host West Ham, with the visitors having a dreadful away record, losing 11 of their 18 games on the road last year. The Potters on the other hand are strong at home especially to the bottom 12, winning 7 out of 11 games last season. Again I make the likely odds of a home win around 1.75 so the 2.0 on offer with Ladbrokes is yet more value.
Both Blackburn and Stoke will target these matches as the type they have to win and I would be surprised if at least 1 of them doesn’t oblige. Not going mad with stakes though as the season is still fairly new.
My 3rd main bet and home side to be backed this weekend is Sunderland who face a resurgent Arsenal fresh from scoring 6 goals in midweek against a shell-shocked Braga. It seems the odds on Arsenal have shrunk off the back of their good start to the season but I envisage a much tougher game for them up in the North East. Sunderland only lost 3 games at home last season (Man U, Chelsea & Villa) and the likely front pair of Bent and Gyan will pose the new Arsenal centre-back pair real problems. I like the +0.75 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Pinnacle on the Black Cats.
No shortlist bets this weekend but worth noting that in the big game at Old Trafford, Liverpool won only 2 games on the road against the top 10 last season. They also lost all 4 games away at the top 4 last year but the best odds on a Man Utd win is a short enough 1.75. The angle of interest for me is on Sir Alex’s men to win to nil, which is 7/4 with Ladbrokes.
Main Bets
1 pt Blackburn to beat Fulham. 2.1 Ladbrokes/Paddy Power/Skybet
1 pt Stoke to beat West Ham. 2.0 Ladbrokes/Coral/Sky
1 pt Sunderland (+0.75 AH) V Arsenal. 2.11 Pinnacle/Betinternet
Whatever you bet on, good luck!
Mike