By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.
This weekend, we highlight two London based games where goals might be in short supply and neither match likely to feature prominently on Match of The Day. We also have some interesting stats on the Manchester Derby as well as suggested bet trends in Italy, France and Spain.
English Premier League
Arsenal vs. Stoke Under 2.5 match goals @ 2.11 SBO Bet.
Much has been written about Arsenal’s poor form this season, but they have won three out of four at home so far. Unlike their away games, they’ve also kept things very tight at the Emirates conceding just three goals and scoring just six. Furthermore, 11 of the last 20 Arsenal home games have had under 2.5 goals, while stoke have been -2.5 in 12/20. Arsenal are also ranked first for going under 2.5 goals against top half teams when at home.
Fulham vs. Everton Half time draw @ 2.08 SBO bet.
Away from home, Everton are not exactly keeping the crowd on the edge of their seats with 12 out of the last 20 away games going under 2.5 goals. This season Everton have just played three away games so far, but have only netted twice in those games. Under 2.5 goals looks highly likely, but the bookies look to have this covered with best odds of 1.68. A better bet might be to bet on the low goal count converting into a draw, particularly in the first half. Fulham have drawn the first half in 5/8 league matches this season while Everton are yet to score before half time on the road this campaign. With best odds of 2.08 there’s just enough juice in a first half draw bet to make this attractive.
Man U vs Man City: No bet.
Man Utd have won 19 consecutive home games, including 6 games against top 6 sides. By comparison Man City have won just twice in the last ten games away to top six teams. Goals look likely though with both teams ranking strongly for +2.5 goals against top teams. Man U are ranked first for scoring first at home against top half teams and ranked first for scoring first in the 1st half. Over 2.5 goals looks likely at 1.80, but we’ll sit on the side lines for this one.
Italy Serie A
Lecce vs. AC Milan: -2.5 goals @ 1.91 Sporting bet.
There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 AC Milan away matches against bottom six teams while Lecce have been under in 3 out of the last 4 home games against sides in the same position as AC Milan. At home this campaign, Lecce have score just once, while AC Milan have also scored just once away.
Spain Primera Liga:
Atl Madrid vs Mallorca: +2.75 goals @ 2.05 Pinnacle sports
There have been +2.5 goals in 15/18 Madrid home matches against middle third teams and in 6/6 Mallorca away matches against top half teams.
France Ligue 1:
Nancy vs Nice: -1.75 goals @ 2.24 Pinnacle. (Half refund if exactly 2 goals).
There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Nancy home matches against middle third teams and in 16/20 Nice away matches. So far this season Nancy have the lowest goal tally in the league (7) while Nice have scored just twice away from home.
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