By utilising the excellent Form Lab Black software, the team at the Smart Betting Club have cast their eye over some of the weekend’s feature games in search for any angles of betting interest.
So far the suggested bets have made a small profit of £1.80 from £50 stakes.
This weekend, we start off with the big clash of the weekend at Goodison Park as Kenny Dalglish takes a Liverpool team back to Anfield for the first time in 20 years.
Everton v Liverpool
As we outlined in this blog post, the Everton v Liverpool Derby might well have a few cards, but don’t expect a goal fest.
There have been under 2.5 goals in 7 of the last 10 Liverpool derbies. Adding weight to the idea of a low scoring game is the trend for Everton to start the season slowly. Since 08/09, 57% of Everton’s games have gone under 2.5 goals between August and October.
Goals are at a premium, but the bookie’s -2.5 odds of 1.77 looks to have already priced in the potential for this.
So which way will the match go? Liverpool are favourites to take them game, but there could be some value in Everton.
The Toffees have lost five home games in two seasons and have not lost two on the bounce for over sixty games. In addition, backing Everton after a loss in their last game since 2006 has produced a profit of 8.1 points from the 42 instances. Despite an improvement under Dalglish, Liverpool still don’t have the greatest away record, having won just five away games in each of the last two seasons.
So there is value in Everton potentially, but low goals usually translates into a draw, so we’ll add some draw cover there.
Bets:
- 0.5 points 1st half draw 2.10 Unibet.
- 0.5 points Everton (0 Asian Handicap – AKA Draw No Bet) 2.20 Pinnacle Sports.
Aston Villa v Wigan
Aston Villa are ranked second over the last twenty games for draw profitability, while Wigan are ranked first for -2.5 goals when playing teams like Villa. So goals are likely to be at a premium and this could translate into a draw.
Villa haven’t lost yet this season, but they haven’t won much either with five draws out of six. Furthermore, they have drawn the first half 10/20 last home matches. Wigan on the other hand have been level at the interval in 5/6 away fixtures.
A half time draw looks a good way to play this game.
Bet:
- 1 point 1st half draw 2.30 Bet365
Blackburn vs Man City
There’s trouble in the ranks with Man City, but they remain a force to be reckoned with even if they are not quite the sum of their parts just yet.
Man City are odds on favourites to win the game, but the odds of 1.62 do not appeal. City are ranked 1st for scoring first and for winning the first half and witth odds of 2.15, this bet is far more appealing.
Bet:
- 1 point City to win 1st half 2.13 12bet.
Wolves v Newcastle
Newcastle have shot up the league table thanks to their tight defense so far in this campaign. The Toon army have let in just three goals so far, the lowest total in the entire league. They are also ranked first for clean sheets in the last ten games against middle third teams. Newcastle keep it tight away from home, although remain vulnerable down their flanks with Gabriel Obertan not providing much cover for his full-back.
Wolves have scored just one goal in their last four league games, with just two goals scored at home so far. The under 2.5 goals odds don’t appear to have fully priced in the low score potential yet so this bet appeals.
Bets:
- 0.9 points -2.5 goals 12bet 1.83.
- 0.1 Speculative bet on HT/ FT result of Draw/ Newcastle at 7.20 with Bet Chronicle.
More Stats, Ratings & Strategies as a SBC Member
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