The August SBC Magazine featured two major tipster reviews of services which could not be more different.
The first review was a look at the very impressive NFL service that ticked a lot of boxes. You can read more about that here.
The second review presented a very different challenge as on the face of it, this looked to be a promising racing service, yet it was only when we ran our detailed analysis that several flaws were revealed.
In today’s post I want to talk a little bit about them, the review process and how you need to be careful judging based on initial appearances and let the data speak for itself.
To benefit from our incisive tipster reviews, betting expertise and real world knowledge on how to win betting – join my team and I at the Smart Betting Club today.
Independent review stance
This racing tipster review was a few years in the making and it’s worth a little insight first of all into the process behind it all.
Initially the tipster was in touch in late 2021 asking if we would promote them for a fee.
Unaware of our independent stance, we gave them a firm NO (they actually asked this a few times over the past few years and always got the same answer) but encouraged them to proof if they would like to be independently reviewed in the future, which they started in 2021.
Moving forward to late 2023 and at that point the service had advised 2,000 bets and had made a circa 8.5% ROI so we kickstarted the review process, which included:
- Looking at the record and how data is captured
- Extensive proofing of bets to gauge things like odds availability, price sensitivity and the reliance on certain bookmakers
- Watching the bets arriving ‘live’ to see how things operated in real time
- Checking our proofing results against any records kept on site
- Examining against Betfair SP to judge market advantage
All Is Not As It Seems
There is a sizeable portion of the tipster market, especially on social media, who are out and out con men. Faked records, deleted losers, closing down and opening again under a new name – there is a list of dodgy strategies that are worthy of a book.
What we have in this review is none of those things. The record ‘on site’ is accurate and the bets that are sent out to members are reflected in the publicly accessible spreadsheet.
So, why do we not rate this service? This table provides the first clue as more than half the bets advised had worse prices come 9.30am:
This is because a sizeable portion of bets by this tipster are advised the night before racing into very weak betting markets and in the current climate, this just isn’t practical to follow or to quote as ‘fair’ odds.
By the time the odds on 11am of the day of racing arrived, these bets actually showed a loss, so any edge was reliant on ‘ricks’ or stand out prices from the evening before.
Whatever the sport, betting into weak markets is not a sustainable approach that paid customers can realistically use long-term. Be it NFL, racing, football, golf or any other you choose to bet on.
Soft bookmakers will quickly kick you out if constantly beating them in weak markets and often there is not enough liquidity to bet on them on betting exchanges and/or sharp bookmakers.
Another issue was the use of concessions. Many bets were advised with extra places that were only available with one or two bookmakers (e.g. SkyBet). These bets may well be profitable on paper but how many of them will you get on before your account disappears? How scalable are they?
Thirdly, Best Odds Guaranteed (Also known as BOG – a very specific horse racing betting boost) was also used in the service’s record keeping for bets advised on the day. Whilst this may be attainable for some followers (if they are long-term losers who don’t beat prices), not all accounts have this available to them.
Finally, the service also made changes to the markets they targeted in early 2024 and that, alongside a sizeable loss so far this year, has reduced the ROI to just 6.06%.
That 6.06% ROI requires the customer to:
- Place bets immediately. There was a 5.79% ROI reduction on overnight bets come 11am.
- Require extra place concessions only available with specific bookies. If you didn’t have them, you would not match the results. Shave perhaps 2-3% ROI off that 6.06% ROI for this alone.
- Need the extra edge from the Best Odds Guaranteed concession. Again most accounts that win have that removed at the same time as staking limits. Another shaving of perhaps 2-3% ROI on that 6.06% ROI
Ultimately it left us with no confidence that there was any edge for this tipster as it was reliant on 1) weak markets 2) extra boosts and concessions and 3) the need for very specific bookmakers.
Betfair SP Quirk
For every horse racing tipster we also look at Betfair SP results, which are easy to place on the Betfair Exchange as this can often be an angle with certain tipsters.
Betfair SP is also a great ‘closing line’ comparison tool to work out any tipster’s edge over the market. For this service we were able to match 93% of the advised bets to Betfair SP win and place market odds.
What we found in terms of Betfair SP revealed that despite the average odds being significantly higher (12.61) vs the advised odds (9.763) there was actually a loss being made of circa -0.93% ROI on these bets.
Suggesting that they had no edge over the closing market.
We also can’t recall seeing such a sizeable average odds difference between advised and Betfair SP odds before.
Proper Edges For Sustainable Profits
So whilst we didn’t uncover a profitable racing tipster in this review, what it does outline is our process and reinforces what makes a good service. This helps to empower our members and explain what to look for when they come across a tipster.
This includes many important factors such as attainable odds, bets that aren’t going to destroy your accounts and demonstrable edges that manifest themselves in CLV or long-term profits.
The service in question had none of these things but we have reviewed plenty of services that do.
Join SBC today and you will be able to find out about these services, with our full back catalogue instantly available. In addition, there are many other benefits to membership with us that you can read about here!