Month: July 2011

PCB's Betting Week: Ray Winstone Might Be On To Something…

Posted on by Dan

Sporting insight for this week’s betting from Paul Chandler-Burns (commonly known as PCB) – a professional gambler, racing pundit and member of the Smart Betting Club team.

In football seasons past, the Saturday ritual for punters has inevitably meant  getting the bets on before heading off to a match with one ear pressed to a radio but in the coming seasons winter Saturday afternoons are just as likely to be spent at home in front of live streams of match action poised to bet in play.

In play is increasingly where it’s at, and it’s not just Bet 365’s rent-a-cockney Ray Winstone that says so. The scrolling advertising hoardings detailing SBO’s changing handicap prices at Premiership grounds are just recognition of the facts of life in the Far East, where in play has been the only game in town for quite some years. And in betting, where the Far East goes we are sure to follow Continue reading →

PCB’s Betting Week: Ray Winstone Might Be On To Something…

Posted on by Dan

Sporting insight for this week’s betting from Paul Chandler-Burns (commonly known as PCB) – a professional gambler, racing pundit and member of the Smart Betting Club team.

In football seasons past, the Saturday ritual for punters has inevitably meant  getting the bets on before heading off to a match with one ear pressed to a radio but in the coming seasons winter Saturday afternoons are just as likely to be spent at home in front of live streams of match action poised to bet in play.

In play is increasingly where it’s at, and it’s not just Bet 365’s rent-a-cockney Ray Winstone that says so. The scrolling advertising hoardings detailing SBO’s changing handicap prices at Premiership grounds are just recognition of the facts of life in the Far East, where in play has been the only game in town for quite some years. And in betting, where the Far East goes we are sure to follow Continue reading →

The Transfer Insider: Are City Ready For A Football Revolutionary?

Posted on by Dan

Where now for football’s want away starts? No moves yet for Cesc Fabgreas, Luka Modric, Samir Nasri or Carlos Tevez.

I had expected Tevez to join Real Madrid, which is priced at 9/2 with Blue Square and 888Sport, if he was going to go anywhere in Europe but Inter Milan are now the favourites with the bookies and the Italian side are just 2/5 with Skybet to capture the frontman, or 2/1 with both Blue Square and 888Sport.

Any move to Inter could hinge on whether or not Wesley Sneijder moves on (more on that later) but City will be less reluctant to sell now they’ve snapped up Sergio Aguero.

I like Aguero, he’s pure class, one thing puzzles me though – he has branded himself the “Che Guevara of football”  – what does this even mean? It sounds clearly like the kind of insanity that could only have been instilled by his maverick father-in-law Maradona . The ever-controversial football icon has the freedom fighter’s face tattooed on his arm and describes Guevara as ‘the second greatest Argentinian’. Presumably Maradona considers himself in pole position in that contest with Eva Peron a distant third.  Regardless of that, Continue reading →

The Sportsman Racing Bulletin: Midday at Goodwood

Posted on by Dan

Welcome to our new column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, who will be providing a rundown of all the best weekend racing action every Friday. 

Scott is a proven racing expert, thanks to his work at http://www.thesportsman.org.uk/ and has a keen eye for racing value, especially in the big feature races.

Glorious Goodwood comes to an end tomorrow with another top class card. Nothing can compare however to the wonder of Frankel’s performance in the Susses Stakes on Wednesday who was advised at 5-6. Frankel is now the fourth best rated horse ever with Timeform on 142 behind only Sea-Bird (145), Brigadier Gerard (144) and Tudor Minstrel (144). It’s great news he will be kept in training by Henry Cecil as a four-year old.

The two biggest races of the day are the Class 1, Group 1 Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes for fillies and mares at 3.10 and the Stewards Cup Handicap following on at 3.45. As a rule I don’t bet heavily on filles and mares Continue reading →

The Sportsman’s Recap: Looking ahead to Goodwood

Posted on by Dan

Welcome to our new column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, this column recaps on last week’s action. 

Scott is a proven racing expert, thanks to his work at http://www.thesportsman.org.uk/ and has a keen eye for racing value, especially in the big feature races.

The weekends’s racing was overshadowed with the death of Rewilding in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The four year old tragically breaking his near-fore leg two furlongs from home. Nathaniel took another major step forward defeating Workforce by 2 ¾ lengths. Trained by the shrewd John Gosden the three year old colt travelled strongly throughout the race and proved gutsy as jockey William Buick called on his reserves of stamina to see off Workforce. The Ryan Moore ridden Workforce again highlighted his dislike for the Ascot track veering badly in the home straight when holding every chance. The Arc winner had been struck into by the ill fated Rewilding on the home turn and returned with a cut leg though whether he would have beaten Nathaniel if running on a straight course is open to debate. Both Nathaniel and Workforce look sure to head for the Arc now where soft going will be the requirement for Continue reading →

The Sportsman's Recap: Looking ahead to Goodwood

Posted on by Dan

Welcome to our new column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, this column recaps on last week’s action. 

Scott is a proven racing expert, thanks to his work at http://www.thesportsman.org.uk/ and has a keen eye for racing value, especially in the big feature races.

The weekends’s racing was overshadowed with the death of Rewilding in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The four year old tragically breaking his near-fore leg two furlongs from home. Nathaniel took another major step forward defeating Workforce by 2 ¾ lengths. Trained by the shrewd John Gosden the three year old colt travelled strongly throughout the race and proved gutsy as jockey William Buick called on his reserves of stamina to see off Workforce. The Ryan Moore ridden Workforce again highlighted his dislike for the Ascot track veering badly in the home straight when holding every chance. The Arc winner had been struck into by the ill fated Rewilding on the home turn and returned with a cut leg though whether he would have beaten Nathaniel if running on a straight course is open to debate. Both Nathaniel and Workforce look sure to head for the Arc now where soft going will be the requirement for Continue reading →

PCB’s Betting Week – 22nd July

Posted on by Mike

It is often said that the quickest route to the poorhouse is to chase your losses backing unraced two year old horses on their debuts. It is a good point well made, but that doesn’t mean you should dismiss inexperienced thoroughbreds entirely.

It is well known that the biggest improvement that these youngsters make comes with their second run and I’ve lost count of the times I’ve made a profit from following the hype when a highly rated flop first time out reappears on the racetrack.

The way to uncover these hidden gems is through scouring the forecast prices in your morning paper and looking for horses that have been listed with a projected price of 8/1 – 10/1 in the morning only to be gambled into 4/1 or less by race time.

There is a great example of this angle today in the form of Police force in Ascot’s 245 today. After a moderate first run I’d have expected this one to be quoted at 10/1+. However it has been gambled today and could well be nearer 4/1 by the off. Someone is clearly happy to ignore the first run, taking the view that the horse has greatly improved for its debut and when you see that happening I think it is an angle you should always take notice of. This is one occasion where the market is clearly giving you a big hint and this is a strategy you can use again and again.

Continue reading →

PCB's Betting Week – 22nd July

Posted on by Mike

It is often said that the quickest route to the poorhouse is to chase your losses backing unraced two year old horses on their debuts. It is a good point well made, but that doesn’t mean you should dismiss inexperienced thoroughbreds entirely.

It is well known that the biggest improvement that these youngsters make comes with their second run and I’ve lost count of the times I’ve made a profit from following the hype when a highly rated flop first time out reappears on the racetrack.

The way to uncover these hidden gems is through scouring the forecast prices in your morning paper and looking for horses that have been listed with a projected price of 8/1 – 10/1 in the morning only to be gambled into 4/1 or less by race time.

There is a great example of this angle today in the form of Police force in Ascot’s 245 today. After a moderate first run I’d have expected this one to be quoted at 10/1+. However it has been gambled today and could well be nearer 4/1 by the off. Someone is clearly happy to ignore the first run, taking the view that the horse has greatly improved for its debut and when you see that happening I think it is an angle you should always take notice of. This is one occasion where the market is clearly giving you a big hint and this is a strategy you can use again and again.

Continue reading →

The Sportsman Racing Bulletin – New This Week!

Posted on by Mike

Welcome to our new column from Scott Armstrong of The Sportsman, who will be providing a rundown of all the best weekend racing action every Friday. He will also return each Monday with a follow-up analysis of how the weekend unfolded – look out for that on the SBC Blog.

Scott is a proven racing expert, thanks to his work at http://www.thesportsman.org.uk/ and has a keen eye for racing value, especially in the big feature races.

The Betfair King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes tomorrow hosts a field of top class middle-distance runners battling it out for the £567,000 prize.

Only five runners line up with Debussy set to be employed as a pacemaker so that narrows the field to four ‘live’ runners to peruse. Nathaniel has been supplemented to the tune of £75,000 to run and John Gosden is not one to throw money at forlorn causes. However Nathaniel would need to step up on previous efforts despite his three year old weight allowance, to take the crown having never competed in a Group 1 before. The stats here are that 80% of the last ten winners have all previously won a Group 1.The shrewd Gosden will also know even if Nathaniel finishes only third the supplementary fee will be covered with an 80k gain.

By a process of elimination that leaves the most likely winner belonging to the front three in the betting market, Workforce, St Nicholas Abbey and Rewilding.

Continue reading →

The Transfer Insider Betting Column 22nd July

Posted on by Mike

This week has been a particularly difficult week in terms of transfer rumours, largely due to the fact so many teams are away on tour. That said, stuff has still been happening and it is just a case of sifting through it as we edge towards a comprehensive picture of each side’s squad.

I have news and interesting odds on potential moves for Joey Barton (8/1 to Villa) and Wesley Sneijder (7/1 to Man City) and why Cardiff at 24/1 look better value odds for the Championship than either favourites Leicester and West Ham at 9/2.

Last week you could still get 6/5 on Sergio Aguero joining Manchester City and that is basically a done deal now, but the Carlos Tevez affair has hit yet another stumbling block.  Corinthians have pulled out due to the impending closure of the Brazilian transfer window, and City have upped the price to £50million for teams in Europe.  There are probably less than five clubs who can afford this, but, to make that deal happen in the current financial climate, there is the possibility of players being traded in a player-plus-cash deal, but more on that later.

Continue reading →