A recent blog post on the Racing Service 1 (RS1) site caught my eye this week, and made for very interesting reading. It was a missive on how the main analyst had sought a reason for the service’s extended poor form. The conclusion ultimately reached was that the cause has been an unconscious drifting away from core principles and a proven formula. Reading between the lines, the remedy it seems, is a re-concentration (is there such a word?) on the basics, or perhaps a return to the basics that had for so long proven to be the foundation of consistent success.
To me, that must be easier said than done. There are so many variables at play in evaluating the relative chances a horse has in a particular race and the price being offered by the bookmaker, I can imagine it would be very easy indeed to fall into the trap of overcomplicating things. I can also see why an extended period of poor form might lead to becoming entangled in a particularly sticky web, the route to escape from which needs a focused, calculated and steady movement as opposed to a thrashing around of arms and legs in a vain attempt at breaking free.
In other words, I reckon it’s bloomin’ hard being a tipster!
The post provides an example of where the ratings that RS 1 use as the basis of their selection process found a clear top-rated selection that was overlooked as a tip, despite it being “the most likely winner”, because the price was deemed too short; a good decision pre-race, for one of the very fundamentals of betting is that if you’re not sure you’re securing a price that holds value (on anything), you do not bet. However, RS1 did find an alternative horse to tip in the race, which of course lost to the top-rated, overlooked horse. Their policy moving forward is that if they feel a horse is the likeliest winner albeit at a price that is too short, they will offer no bet, as opposed to trying to find one to oppose it with. I get the logic, particularly during a losing run, but I’m mindful that it is not uncommon for A. of Racing Service 2 to oppose “the likeliest winner” in a race with one he feels has a decent chance of winning and whose price significantly underestimates its chances of doing so, ie. it’s a real value price. And over the years he’s had some of his greatest successes by using this approach.
Let me be clear, I am not criticising RS1’s approach here. To the contrary, I commend them for undertaking some proper self-analysis during a bad run and taking steps to make sure they don’t lose sight of the fundamentals that have made them such a successful service over time. No, what I’m saying is that the job of a tipster really is a tough one at times, demanding clarity of thought and a consistency in approach that can only be admired and respected.
I wish them well, and look forward to seeing an upswing in their fortunes.
Portfolio performance for July to date
It’s not just Racing Service 1 struggling at the moment. Bet Alchemist is finding it hard going and although Precision Value produced some good results in the latter part of last week, it is still running at a significant loss for the month. Even Racing Intelligence, the one racing service to be enjoying July, didn’t have the best of weeks.
Bet Alchemist (100 point bank): Staked 41pts, -14.213pts
Racing Service 1 (200): Staked 54pts, -32.25pts
Golf Insider (400): Staked 46.5pts, +66.5pts
PGA Profit (500): Staked 126pts, -114.25pts
Precision Value (200): Staked 80pts, -9.585pts
Racing Intelligence (200): Staked 249pts, +45.145pts
Scottish Football Income Booster (100): n/a
Racing Service 2 (50): n/a
Total for July: ROI -8.21%, ROC -2.67%