Did you read the recent SBC blog piece that contained an interview with a representative of MustardBet? If not then you really should, as the recent entry into the bookmaking world of this firm could be the biggest thing to happen to the UK betting market since the withdrawal of Pinnacle Sports.
And boy is the overly-comfortable, cosy world of the leading UK online bookmakers due a proper shake down or what?!? I still cringe at the absolute cynicism of the PR figureheads appearing on ITV Racing shouting out their special offers and great prices, whilst knowing that anyone who might have even the slightest inkling of what they’re doing when it comes to betting will be turned away from their doors with the speed and efficiency of a Lionel Messi run and finish.
The business model of most online books seems to be attract as many mug-punters as you can through aggressive advertising, special joining offers and deals and then play a numbers game. Quickly weed out the competent, prevent them from betting, and then keep the mugs by offering more and more offers, many of which draw them into their Casino offering from where there is absolutely no mathematical chance of profiting in the long run.
MustardBet appear to be different. Their business model is built around low margins, competitive odds, an ability to bet and win without being closed down, and a mathematical/statistical approach to creating opening market prices. Once a market is available, weight of money will dictate price movements and a balanced book with a reduced overround is the result. Simple, eh?
The benefits to us punters include value prices and the ongoing ability to have a bet. I sounds daft I know, but we really shouldn’t downplay the extent to which this represents good news. Along with growing exchanges offering competitive commission rates and an ever-increasing breadth of markets such as Smarkets and Matchbook, we’re beginning to get back to the situation we had when able to bet with Pinnacle before they withdrew from the UK market back in 2014. And for that, we are grateful.
Portfolio results from Monday 1st October to Sunday 7th October
Right then, we have some developments. We have a shaken up ‘Main’ portfolio, and today introduces two other portfolios to follow.
The first is what I’m going to call a ‘Starter‘ portfolio and is aimed at starting small and increasing stakes as we (hopefully) make a profit. The aim is to show how from small acorns bigger things can grow and how a strategy of reinvestment can work.
Finally, we have the ‘Broxchange‘ portfolio, made up of services which we can use the betting exchanges and bet brokers to maximum effect. This will start small but as and when suitable services become apparent, then we will look to expand.
I’ll write more about the make-up of each over the weeks ahead, but for now let’s see how we’ve fared in October so far…
Well, typically it’s been a wee bit of a nightmare. Football Service 1 has got off to a shocker with nine bets from nine losing last week. That’s always going to put us on the back foot but with Northern Monkey’s heroics of last Saturday soon forgotten amidst a few losing bets this, and MVS (Lite) and Racing Service 3 finding winners hard to come by, then it’s not been great at all! Not one service excelled, and so the overall effect was a pretty bad week, but hey that at times is the reality of betting.
I have had much worse weeks in the past and always turned it around!
Let’s hope for better next week.
Main Portfolio
Racing Service 1: Staked 7pts, -0.25pts.
Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, -9pts.
Football Lay Profits: Staked 87.25pts, +1.55pts.
Golf Insider: Staked 350pts, -121.5pts.
MVS (Lite): Staked 12pts, -4.5pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 14.925pts, -6.01pts.
Football Service 2: Staked 12pts, +1.5pts.
The Accountant: Staked 11pts, +0.521pts.
Racing Service 2: n/a.
Racing Service 3: Staked 12.5pts, -12.5pts.
TOTAL ROI: -25.48%.
Starter Portfolio
This will see stakes raised for each service as they make a profit, reaching a certain point before profits will be reinvested to add to the portfolio. This may well take a fair amount of time. It may not. We’re in the hands of the betting gods, but we will get to the point of reinvestment at some point. Each week I will note if stakes are to be raised or not.
Football Lay Profits: Staked 87.25pts, +1.55pts. (Stakes raised by 0.66%/point).
Northern Monkey: Staked 14.925pts, -6.013pts.
The Accountant: Staked 11pts, +0.521pts (Stakes raised by 0.8%/point)
Racing Service 2: n/a.
TOTAL ROI: -9.64%.
Broxchange Portfolio
All bets placed via the Exchanges or MustardBet. This is a small portfolio designed for those who can’t use the main online books.
Football Service 1: Staked 9pts, -9pts.
Football Lay Profits: Staked 87.25pts, +1.55pts.
Golf Insider: Staked 350pts, -121.5pts.
The Accountant: Staked 11pts, +0.521pts.
TOTAL ROI: -28.84%.
