G’day!
So we revealed last week how we are going to change things up a bit moving forward, running portfolios that are geared towards people in different situations. In a nutshell, we still have a ‘Main’ portfolio made up of ten services much in the way we’ve had since the Bet Diary started. In addition however, we now have two extra portfolios – one aimed at the beginner who perhaps has limited funds, and another for use at the Exchanges or for those of you who live in appropriate locations and have access to bet brokers.
I thought I’d use this post to outline some of the basic reasoning behind each portfolio.
Starting with the ‘Main’ portfolio, you will have noticed some services have made way to be replaced by others. In has come The Accountant (a horse racing place lay expert), Golf Insider (experimented with in the past), Football Service 2 and Football Lay Profits. My thoughts in restructuring this portfolio centred around my feeling that the portfolio as it was, was too heavily geared towards horse racing. I wanted to diversify more, not merely to spread risk but also to add variety to the nature of the bets I’m placing with the bookmakers. I want to try to come across to those trading teams that I am a jack of all betting trades and a master of none. If a bookie looks at my history and sees I have a few bets on the horses here, a couple on footie there, a bit on the golf, etc., then perhaps they may think I’m more of a ‘fun’ bettor. I might be completely misguided by harbouring this hope, but the variety can’t do any harm, can it? The inclusion of two laying services too will ease the pressure on the bookies as I’ll obviously be using the Exchanges to follow these.
The ‘Starter’ portfolio is for those who are really just starting out on their betting journey. Again, we have two laying services in an attempt to not pile on too much action onto unsuspecting bookmakers, hopefully extending their lifespan and building a strong foundation at Betfair or Smarkets or Matchbook – or, as more likely to be the case, at all three. The theoretical stakes here are very small, but we will be looking to reinvest profit to both increase stakes and the breadth of the portfolio as we go along.
How long this takes is of course dictated by the performance of those services we’re starting off with. With the two racing services, I’m going to be looking to increase stakes whenever we’ve seen a 25% increase in the relevant bank. For the laying service we’ll simply be raising the stake every time we hit a new high. So for example, If the bank for Football Lay Profits is 200 points, and we have set aside £400 for that bank, then as we start our lay will be £2. If we make £10 in Day 1, then our new bank is £410 and the stake for the following day’s lays will be £2.05 (ie. £410/200 points). We’ll not be lowering stakes as we make a loss. I hope that makes sense.
Finally, the ‘Broxchange’ portfolio will use prices available at Betfair primarily, although Smarkets and Matchbook will come into play too. I’ll also be looking at using MustardBet. The idea of this portfolio is to show how we can still make money even if unable to bet with bookmakers that close accounts down too easily. MustardBet’s business model is more akin to the Pinnacle’s, so let’s see how we can use it.
Next week, I’ll give some thoughts on the new services we’re following.
Portfolio Results from Monday 8th to Sunday 16th October
An excellent week for the ‘Main’ portfolio with Racing Service 3 and Northern Monkey in fine form. NMP had the winner of the Cesarewitch at 12s ante post which was a real boon, especially as Wayne topped up on the beast on Saturday morning. As for RS3, well, what can be said. From 12 bets last week, he had five winners at 11/2, 8/1, 11/1, 18/1 and 9/2. Add to that two that were advised each way and finished in the frame at 16/1 and 10/1. Incredible!
It was a strong week for the ‘Starter’ portfolio too, with Northern Monkey being a part of it, and this despite no bets at all from Football Lay Profits and Racing Service 2.
Not so good for ‘Broxchange’ though, as Football Service 1 still can’t find a winner, The Accountant not getting off to a great start, and Golf Insider identifying golfers who played well, but not quite well enough!
Portfolio Performance
‘Main’: ROI 40.38%, ROC 3.08%.
‘Starter’: ROI 52.56%, ROC 5.11%.
‘Broxchange’: ROI -50.79%, ROC -2.58%.
Individual Service Performance
The Accountant: Staked 6pts, -1.417pts.
Racing Service 1: Staked 12pts, +5.56pts.
Football Service 1: Staked 2pts, -2pts.
Golf Insider: Staked 14.4pts, -14.4pts.
MVS (Lite): Staked 10pts, +0.25pts.
Northern Monkey: Staked 14.25pts, +12.062pts.
Football Service 2: Staked 7pts, -1.38pts.
Racing Service 2: n/a
Racing Service 3: Staked 20.5pts, +39.85pts.
