You know, I’d love for the second Bet Diary post of the week to become something of a Q&A session.  Anyone can email me at rowan@smartbettingclub.com if they have any queries or comments, and I can then address them in here.  I can’t think there would be too many questions that at least a few others wouldn’t mind asking, so please don’t be shy.  It may even open up healthy debate that would benefit everyone and provide food for thought, which is never a bad thing.  So please, do feel free to get in touch.

This past week has seen David getting in touch to ask about the NFL Strategy I use, under the misapprehension it is actually a service.  This is my fault.  I did explain many posts ago where this strategy is from and what it’s based on, but have neglected to do so since, so it’s understandable that there may be some confusion.

In short, the NFL Strategy is free for anyone to read over on the Bookiebashing site (here, in fact).

The strategy is based on finding matches for which the bookies are setting the Total Points line at a fairly low mark, and then using simple maths to identify the value.  The post I’ve pointed you towards explains far better and more clearly than I ever could, so go read.  All I would add is that for a bet that statistically should be around the 5/1 mark, it’s easy to get 8 or 9/1 on the Exchanges and often 10/1 to 12/1 in the bookies, and for a Full Time bet that should be around 10/1, I’m usually getting 15/1 – 16/1 on the Exchanges.

It’s pretty volatile, and the issue is that there isn’t that much action across a full season so you really are at the mercy of variance.  But the fact is that if you’re mentally prepared to accept that it could be a couple of years before the profit comes through, come through it will.  The NFL season is not far off complete now, so I’ll produce an end of season report in a couple of weeks or so.

One NFL service that is a service (!), is Touchdown Profit, and if you’ve been following the Bet Diary recently you’ll know how impressive their season has been.  Fingers crossed they can finish strong.  The service deserves to finish this NFL year on a high.

Right, then.  I’m expecting questions from now on.  Lots and lots of questions.  So get at it!

News first of a new addition to the Bet Diary portfolio – SBC Premium Service Golf Betting Club.  You can read a lot more about the service, how it works, the people behind it etc, here.  You can also listen to an insightful interview with the two brothers who run GBC with Pete in the latest SBC Podcast.

I’ll be  writing more about it shortly, with first impressions and such like, but for now, suffice to say I saw Golf Betting Club as providing something different – a slightly different angle to my golf betting, and that is In-Play tips.  Sure, they do give out pre-tournament advice but historically a strong source of profit has been derived from bets sent following the end of each round.  Like I say, a different angle.

Not the most auspicious of starts last week, with my missing a winning final round 2-ball pick, but I think that now I’m into the swing of things (see what I did there!) that sort of thing won’t happen again.

The week as a whole has been a profitable one but it hasn’t exactly swung the needle too much.  I’ve gone from being just shy of break even for the month to just a shade above break even.  As I mentioned last week, it could all have been so much different had second placed finishers every week so far just found (literally) one or two shots to win instead.  Well,  guess what?  Last week was another painful one – yet another second placer on the DPWT Tour.  That however, wasn’t the most painful golfing result.  Over in the States on Sunday evening, we had Sam  Burns leading the way with two holes to go, before hitting his tee shot on the 17th into the water, and then hitting his tee shot on the 18th…err…into the water.  What. A. Nob.

Poor time of it for my Bookiebashing Racing Tracker inspired Lucky 15s recently, and am currently standing at -12% bank “growth”.  Nothing unusual in this.  Have suffered much worse drawdowns in the past and then one Lucky 15 takes you to an all time profit high.  I do feel that lack of turnover is exaggerating short term variance though.  Need it to warm up a bit and the weather to play ball so not so many meetings are abandoned.

The Ying to that Yang though,  has been the various Value Bets taken from the Bookiebashing Bet Tracker.  Win Both Halves bets have gone on a bit of a tear – well, four wins  from the last six bets.  Aberdeen on Friday night was ridiculous value when I struck my bet, which meant a relatively hefty stake.  Happy days.  12.7% bank growth and 47% ROI, which is frankly stupidly high and unsustainable.  That figure will come down.  If it doesn’t, I’m retiring by Christmas!

Interestingly, Bookiebashers released a blog post a few days ago about the WBH bets after receiving a question about them.  The post explores the relationship between the Expected and Recorded results – Worth a read/watch.

Back tomorrow.

Betting 2024

AI Football: Staked 227pts, +27.11pts, ROI: 11.94%, ROC: 2.71%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 720pts, +52.55pts, ROI 7.29%, ROC 5.25%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 374.5pts, -13.85pts, ROI: -3.69%, ROC: -0.69%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 122.5pts, -122.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -12.25%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 495pts, -180.3pts, ROI: -36.42%, ROC: -12.02%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 536.5pts, +255.5pts, ROI: 47.62%, ROC: 12.77%

DD/HH: Staked 74.5pts, -74.5pts, ROI: -100%, ROC: -7.45%.

Golf Betting Club: Staked 86pts, -40.8pts, ROI -47.44%, ROC -3.4%

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 140.4pts, -5.18pts, ROI: -3.68%, ROC: -0.51%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 80pts, +54.66pts, ROI: 54.66%, ROC: 5.46%

TOTAL ROI: 0.75%

Quick post tonight (can you believe that pre-season cricket training starts for me tonight!?!  It may be indoors, but I need to get there, and it’s currently about -6 degrees…I’m far too old.  WHAT am I doing?).

Anyway, reader James emailed to ask how my lad is getting on with Matchday Profits and whether or not he would recommend it.

I don’t post results for this service in the Bet Diary.  It doesn’t really have an influence at all on my betting and unfortunately I don’t have the soft online bookmaker accounts needed to take advantage.  I suppose there is a tenuous link in that Joe is using the service to contribute towards growing something of a betting bank, which he then merges with my funds, but other than that like I say, it doesn’t have much impact on me.

The opinion of my son is that Matchday Profits has been a really good service to get into right at the start of his betting journey.  Not only does it help that bank develop, but it also gets you used to the way the bookmaking sites work, different types of bet to place, and even how to start spotting opportunities yourself.

Personally speaking, I think anyone with a semi-decent level of betting experience under their belt would soon be able to seek out the sort of opportunities Matchday Profit seeks to exploit, but at the very least the service takes away the time needed to do that.  What I would say too is that I know it is run by Paul Ruffy, and from my own experience of following a successful horse racing service called Winning Racing Tips for a number of years, which was also run by Paul, that the man at the helm of Matchday Profit is a sensible, canny bettor with a good eye for making a profit.

I guess in summary, MP is a service that provides a very low risk entry into profitable betting and my lad is happy with it.  It’s not time consuming to follow, and whereas it’s never going to provide the sort of rate of return that some of the best tipsters provide, it is going to produce steady, long term profits, and is ideal for helping to develop a betting bank.

Hope that helps, James.  And if anyone wants me to address any topics or issues in the Bet Diary, leave a comment or email into rowan@smartbettingclub.com.

Now, where are my gloves…

Can’t say that the past week has hit the right notes.  It hasn’t even, as Eric Morecambe once said, hit the right notes, but not necessarily in the right order.  Apart from Sys Analyst all the notes have been duff ones.

Adding to the frustration has been a severe case of Seconditis on the golf.  I was on Thriston Lawrence at a nice enough price for the Dubai Invitational – he finished a shot second.  This follows on from, remember, the previous week’s second by one shot Theegala, and continuing the pattern I had Russell Henley on Sunday night who failed to make a play-off by, yep you’ve guessed it, one stroke.

Overall this month has just dipped ever so slightly into the red, but oh how different it could have been!

What has been notable is the relative lack of turnover.  With the cold weather biting, forcing the abandonment of a number of race meetings, I’ve placed just a small handful of Lucky 15s and those have been as miserable in their returns as the grey clouds and biting winds we’ve had round these parts.  On top of that, I’ve not had one single DD/HH bet, nor anything last weekend for the NFL Strategy (and this weekend coming looks likely to blank here too).

As mentioned, the only bright point came from Sys Analyst on Saturday, who gave a very nice 33/1 winner.  A winner was needed to be fair, but to get the year’s first in such style brought a rare ray of sunshine to proceedings.  Let’s hope this sparks Sys Analyst into a bit of a better spell.

Below are the YTD figures, and I’ll be back soon (hopefully tomorrow) to answer a query about Matchday Profits, a service my lad is (still) using to help build up his betting bank.  There’s also news soon of a new addition to the portfolio, and a heads up to the new SBC free offering, Account Angel.  Read more about that in the meantime, here.

AI Football: Staked 176pts, +46.01pts, ROI: 26.14%, ROC: 4.6%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 412.5pts, +29.65pts, ROI 7.18%, ROC 2.96%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 222pts, +7.05pts, ROI: 3.17%, ROC: 0.35%

Golf (Win Only): Staked 44.5pts, -44.5pts, ROI -100%, ROC -4.45%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 345pts, -103.5pts, ROI: -23.06%, ROC: -5.36%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 197.5pts, -43.75pts, ROI: -22.15%, ROC: -4.37%

DD/HH: Staked 49.5pts, -49.5pts, ROI: -100%, ROC: -4.95%.

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 105.4pts, -22.2pts, ROI: -21.06%, ROC: -2.22%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 60pts, +56.04pts, ROI: 93.4%, ROC: 5.6%

TOTAL ROI: -1.52%

Week 1 of the new year has been notable by its absence of very much betting action at all.  With the weather forcing the abandonment of race meetings, opportunities to get Lucky 15s down was somewhat restricted.  So ultimately turnover was lower than it is usually, but I’m not complaining about an 8% ROI achieved.  You won’t find me complaining at the end of any week that shows a profit!

Leading the way was the Half Time/Full Time NFL Strategy with wintry weather in parts of the US affecting the Total Points line that this method revolves around.  There were five games that qualified, and although only one produced the goods, that was enough for a very healthy profit overall.  There’s a lot of volatility attached to this, so who knows when the next winner will be.  To be fair though, I thought we were a little unlucky not to get at least another one landed, with how the games panned out.

Without hitting any spectacular winners the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker provided most of the action and a decent amount of profit.  It’s only been four weeks I’ve been using this, but it’s quickly become a firm favourite.

Touchdown Profit’s ridiculously good form continued with another winner, although they tipped another which I managed to miss, somewhat frustratingly.  All my own fault.  Anyway, as remarked upon last week, the form so far this NFL Regular season has been nothing short of immense.  Let’s hope it continues through the Play Off season.  If it does, it will have been a vintage year for TP!

At the other end, Sys Analyst has yet to tip a winner in 2024, but let’s remember it’s early days yet!  It was a somewhat underwhelming end to 2023 too, so I reckon that upswing will arrive soon.

Finally, golf was back and it was good to get some bets down.  No win-only bets from me last week, but managed to get three that placed from the Bookiebashing Golf Tracker which meant a marginal profit.  It could have been a lot better.  Those of you following the SBC ‘X’ account and the bets Josh, Pete, Tom and I have placed will know that we were all on Sahith Theegala.  Our man sent his putt on the last hole of the final round within millimetres of the cup, but instead it lipped out.  That would have forced a play off at least, but it wasn’t to be.  So near to a wonderful start to the golf betting year, but so far.

Week 1’s figures:

AI Football: Staked 75pts, +28.64pts, ROI: 38.18%, ROC: 2.86%

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker: Staked 180pts, +53.24pts, ROI 29.57%, ROC 5.32%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 130pts, +21.08pts, ROI: 16.21%, ROC: 1.05%

Golf (Win Only): n/a

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 180pts, +23.92pts, ROI: 13.28%, ROC: 1.59%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 147.5pts, -41.25pts, ROI: -27.96%, ROC: -4.12%

DD/HH: Staked 49.5pts, -49.5pts, ROI: -100%, ROC: -4.95%.

NFL strategy: Staked 94.5pts, +95.45pts, ROI: 101%, ROC: 9.54%

Sys Analyst: Staked 70.6pts, -70.6pts, ROI: -100%, ROC: -7.06%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 40pts, +38.21pts, ROI: 95.52%, ROC: 3.82%

TOTAL ROI: 8.32%

Everything is in place.  Here is what we’ll be betting on in here through 2024:

Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker (Lucky 15s)

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s)

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker

Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven strategy

NFL Half Time + Half Time/Full Time strategy

Sys Analyst

Touchdown Profit

In addition, Joe is going to do the £1k/2.5% stake “growth plan” with AI Football, and I’ll post exactly where we’re up to with this each week.

Some thoughts…

Overall, I’ve had to be aware of the time I have to hand, and when I can bet.  This means there are plenty of exceptionally strong tipsters and services out there, fully reviewed by the Smart Betting Club, and which carry our full confidence that in an ideal world I would love to follow, but which in reality I would struggle to do so.  As ever therefore, this Bet Diary mustn’t ever be viewed as a prescriptive way to make money from betting.  It’s just the chronicling of one person’s attempt to do so, in a way that suits him (or them, I suppose, this year).  You do it your way.

Tremendously excited although I can see issues arising down the line.  Few of these will likely be new to anyone.  We’re talking about account closures and ability to get on, but as we all know, that’s all just part of the game nowadays.  But the fact I still get excited at the prospect of a new year’s betting tells me the fire hasn’t and isn’t going out.  It’s still all good fun, and surely that’s exactly how it should be.

A couple of things to round off this week’s posts.

Firstly, please do follow the picks for each week’s golf tournaments this month, put up by myself, Pete and Josh representing the SBC, and Tom of Bookie Bashing.  Keep an eye out on ‘X’ (@SBCinfo) for that, and if you haven’t yet listened to the SBC Podcast we did on golf betting (and if not, why not!!!???), then do.  Capisce?

And finally, it would be remiss of me not to mention Touchdown Profit’s remarkable tipping record this NFL season.  The man is on fire, and after going 4-0 for winning picks over the last two weeks of December and flying along at an incredible 20%+ ROI for the season to date (which is truly remarkable bearing in mind the nature of the markets he’s tipping into), I think if he asked me to at this point, I’d probably leave my wife for him.

I mentioned yesterday that I was introducing another strategy for 2024, and on advice from others, that’s the Bookie Bashing Early Pay Out Tracker.  

The Early Pay Out Tracker seeks out value in football teams, when taking into account that at Bet 365, Paddy Power, BetFred, Skybet and one or two others, should your team go ahead at any time in the match by two clear goals, they will pay the bet out as a winner regardless of the final score.  This concession provides an edge if backing the right teams, which is where the Tracker comes in.

The strategy I’m adopting is to put these teams into a Lucky 15 in the same way we do horses with the Racing Tracker, looking to compound value, whilst acknowledging this is likely to make the ride a more volatile one.  I trialled this approach through December to small stakes, and liked what I saw.

It was clearly a good month, and I know it is highly unlikely that it will always be so easy.  Here are the stats:

Bets: 87

Max DD: -5.7% of bank allocated

ROI: 60.45%

ROC: 40.9%

Pretty impressive, huh?  In truth, and very much like our experience with the Racing Tracker, the majority of profit came from one big winning bet which netted a 36 point profit (from a total profit of 54.5pts).  Albeit the fact this is a very small sample, what I found encouraging was the maximum drawdown figure, which reached just under 6% of the bank I allocated to the strategy.

The drawback, as ever, is that we have to reconcile ourselves to the fact that any level of sustained success will bring about the inevitable account closures, or perhaps we should question how long will it be before any real success results in receving the oh-so-personal email informing of the Traders’ decision that they no longer welcome your business?  When that happens, it’s not just the EP Tracker that suffers, it’s the golf betting too.  But we can’t live wondering, so let’s try and make some money whilst we can.

What I should add is that this is one area of our “operation” I’ve delegated to my progeny.  I mentioned yesterday there were things he could bring to the party other than cash that would prove to be more than useful.

Right, back tomorrow I hope, with a full run down of what I’ll be betting on this year, and how 2024 is going so far (hint: quietly!).

See you then.

Happy New Year to you, and here’s hoping you have had a lovely break over the Christmas holiday period.  Mine was quiet, which is just as I like it.  I tell you what though, the alarm going off this morning and being at work – albeit from home – came as a bit of a slap around the mush, I can tell you.  What happened to my Christmas period afternoon nap?!?

What does 2024 promise, and what are the aims for betting this year?

Well, my son and I have “officially” teamed up.  He’s made enough from Matched Betting and some winners on the golf last year to be able to “buy in”, as it were.  He doesn’t bring that much to the table in terms of cash, but he is clearly able to offer up certain advantages that I can take advantage of.  One of these is simply the use of his time, as hopefully he’ll be able to relieve me of some responsibilities in terms of getting bets down and record keeping.  Another of course, is an increased ability to get on certain bets, for now at least.

Like last year, I imagine almost all of my betting action will take place in shops using cash, with the remainder being played out on the Exchanges.  I’ve kinda become institutionalised in that sense, now.

The aim – and you’ll be able to follow how we get on here in these pages – is to double the bank.  An ROI of around the 10% mark would be nice, but 100% ROC is the target.  I’ve equalised the staking for the benefit of those wanting to follow progress, so you can easily see which are the busier strategies/services. and which are bringing the most success/worst losses.  I’m starting with a nominal 5,000 point bank, so by December 31st 2024 we want that to have grown to 10,000.   Here goes!

I think it’s fair to say that my betting has become somewhat Bookie Bashing-centric which is simply a consequence of working to find different angles and strategies from the mass of trackers and tools on the website.  An example is the World Darts Championship that is due to finish tomorrow.  Over Christmas I’ve used the BB x180 Tool to identify 11 bets in either the Most 180s or Match 180s markets, being fortunate enough to have seven winners and an overall ROI of 25%.  I’m sure I could have found a lot more value opportunities had I wanted to dedicate more time to it, but I didn’t.  I wanted to take a quick squint at the markets and stick down some money on Smarkets if there was an opportunity.

Tomorrow I’ll break down exactly what we’ll be betting on, including details of a new strategy I’ve been trialling through December and managed to make an ROI of 60% from 87 bets, and bank growth of 41%!  Not pinning all hopes that this being the normal level of performance to expect, but it’s nice to dream.

Until tomorrow, then.