Last week I posted about how excited I was to be adding Sys Analyst to those I follow and betting strategies I use.  Still excited, and have enjoyed what’s been done so far, having my first winner thus far yesterday (Sunday).  To be honest though, I’ve spent a long time last week thinking about the best way for me to follow.

Smart Betting Club members who have read the recent re-review of Sys Analyst (and if you haven’t read it, why not!?) will know that by applying certain filters the strong baseline ROI already present can be built upon.  From the analysis conducted by the SBC too, we can see that when to bet if using the likes of Betfair and Smarkets instead of online bookmakers, can also have an impact on returns over a long-term period.

As always, I’ve just been experimenting to work out a methodology that suits me and my circumstances, and with any service we follow, I really believe this to be an important part of the process.  For example, with what I have on already at the moment, I can place probably 90% of the Sys Analyst bets advised Monday- Friday I want to place, whenever.  There may occasionally be something crop up that means I can only bet at a certain time, but generally speaking I can choose when I want to enter the market to take the available price.

The weekends, and particularly Saturdays, however are a different story.  Away playing cricket from fairly early until late means I may well not be able to get on some or even all of the bets I would normally want to back.  But this lasts only through the summer and there are plenty of bets to be getting on around these restrictions. It’s been the same with other strategies I follow too.  For example, with the last round of Premier League matches of the season all kicking off at 4.30 on Sunday afternoon, whilst I was tucking into a couple of pints on a mate’s 50th birthday celebration, I was in no position (or had the desire) to interrupt proceedings so I could get some DD/HH bets down.

One thing I’ve learnt over the years…there’s no point making some decent money from betting if you then allow betting to occasionally get in the way and spoil the enjoyment you get from spending it.  There are always more good bets coming through.  No need to worry about missing out.

Well after last week’s brighter post, this week is back to the doldrums, with the only shaft of light coming from Edwards Tips who managed to find a couple to place at decent prices in the PGA Championship.

It was the L15s that did most of the damage, Monday and Tuesday being horror days which set it back for the week.  All in the name of variance, of course.

Not much else to say.  Just one of those weeks.

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 55.05pts, -6.6pts, roi -11.88%.

Edwards Tips: Staked 15.15pts, +2.425pts, roi 16%

Football Coupons: Staked 19pts, +5.338pts, roi 28.07%.

BB Golf Tracker: Staked 1,840pts, +10.39pts, roi 0.56%

BB Racing Tracker Lucky 15s: Staked 107pts, +3.887pts, roi 3.77%.

NFL:

PGA Profit: Staked 153pts, -59.372pts, roi -38.8%

Sys Analyst:

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%.

TOTAL: ROI 0.78%

Last week, SBC members will have received details and a re-review of the horse racing service, Sys Analyst.  If this service were a racehorse, it would be an extremely well-bred thoroughbred.  I dunno, Dad = Frankel, Mum = Miesque (one for the oldies there!) or something.

Anyway, you get the message.  Allan, the service operator, is very shrewd and has proven his ability to significantly beat the markets for many years now.  Allan’s expertise aligned with his horse racing program has allowed Sys Analyst members to profit hugely at the expenses of the bookmakers.

Not only that, but we know Allan is scrupulously honest and takes pride in providing a truly professional service for his subscribers.  So in short, I am absolutely delighted to be able to say that moving forward, Sys Analyst will be a part of the Bet Diary portfolio.

In my post last week, I wrote of a chap who had passed on some kindly advice when it came to using the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker.  In a nutshell, he felt that I wasn’t really giving it the best shot at being successful as I needed to up the number of Lucky 15s I was putting down.  He was right.  And what I see in Sys Analyst is another opportunity to raise my betting volume to the levels I would really like it to be at.

What is fantastic for someone such as myself, who can no longer get a bet on with an online bookmaker, is that thanks to the work done by Allan and the analysis presented by our Pete in the recently published Sys Analyst re-review, is that this is a service that can work very effectively via the Exchanges.  That to me, as you can imagine, is manna from heaven.

Just like any tipping service, there will be losing runs.  Of course there will.  But the (very) long term track record is excellent, both in terms of ROI and bank growth.  To say I’m excited is something of an understatement!

Until Wednesday…

I chose last week, to back the Weekly Golf Value picks, allied to some I find from the same source – the Bookie Basher Golf Tracker – win only.  I couldn’t get over the fact that here was a service aimed at securing value in the prices to place at the bookies, and here was I taking prices that clearly weren’t value on the Exchanges.  My logic was that even not taking the value, place market returns would smooth out the journey, but putting my big boy trousers on I realised this is ultimately something of a Fool’s Errand and I needed to grow a pair.  So I did, and was rewarded by a 140/1 winner of the Soudal Open, Simon Forsstrom.  Ironically, with prices on the Exchange usually greater than the win price at the bookies, the price I got on Smarkets was…yes, 140.0!  Typical (although I’m not moaning).

The win only strategy meant I didn’t profit from WGV’s excellent tipping through the week’s events, which members with bookmaker accounts would have done.  Not only was Forsstom tipped, so was Jens Dantorp who finished 2nd!  And over on the LIV Tour, we actually failed to win a play-off (unheard of last year!) as Branden Grace finished utimately in a tie for 2nd (at 65.0).

So a week to be proud of for WGV.

Elsewhere, and a good ten point return on a Lucky 15 meant that strategy pulled a nice monetary profit, and of just the two DD/HH bets I had, Brentford’s Bryan Mbuemo landed the spoils for one of them.

Not such a good week for Edwards Tips or PGA Profit however, as both blanked.  But a decent profit overall on the week, so I ain’t complaining.

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 51.75pts, -3.3pts, roi -6.37%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -6.35pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 13.05pts, -0.375pts, roi -2.87%, High: 3.65pts, DD: -4.025pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 18pts, +6.338pts, roi 35.18%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -7.692pts, Max DD: -7.692pts.

Golf: Staked 1,715pts, +135.39pts, roi 7.89%, High: 135.39pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -581.59pts

Lucky 15s: Staked 89pts, +14.655pts, roi 16.76%, High: 14.655pts, DD: 0pts, Max DD: -9.123pts.

NFL:

PGA Profit: Staked 133pts, -39.372pts, roi -29.6%, High: 37.704pts, DD: -77.076pts, Max DD: -77.076pts.

Value Bets: Staked 40pts, +3.9pts, roi 9.75%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -13pts, Max DD: -13pts.

TOTAL ROI: 4.65%

I received some advice last week from a fellow Bookie Basher member who for the last couple of years or so has made more money from the Racing Tracker than anything else.  It is, for this chap, “by far the most profitable service [he’s] ever used.”

It was for me last year.  I made very good money on golf, but I made more than twice as much backing Lucky 15s.  It’s been a little while since I had a big win though, although my hopes were raised last week when I was one result away from a 100 point profit from one bet.  The dice will fall as I want them to at some point.  We just don’t know when.

Anyway, the advice from this chap was to place more bets.  And you know what?  He’s right.

Last year I had a number of online accounts open to me, and one account with what is without doubt the firm most useful for finding value Lucky 15s that seemed completely impervious to the general principle of bookmakers closing accounts quicker than I can fall into bed at the end of a long day!  I won four four figure sums from Lucky 15s and am still not sure quite how the account lasted for as long as it did.  But now, it is an ex-account, and has been since the end of 2022.

So now, as you know, I’m restricted to shops.  And getting a decent number of Lucky 15s down each day is nowhere near so straightforward.  If I was doing this full time, then it would be easy to be pretty prolific, but I’m not and in fact during the week I’m restricted to driving along during a lunch break.

However, I took the points on board (he also made an excellent point about the settings on the Tracker) and have started to implement certain things (such as eating whilst working, which frees up the time to visit two bookies instead of one with the drive in between allowing the Tracker to “refresh” itself somewhat).  The prevalence at this time of year of Evening racing also helps, and so far it’s working – I am getting more Lucky 15s down.  Still not as many as I would like to in an ideal world, but then we don’t live in an ideal world.  Well I don’t, anyway.

Fingers crossed this will have the desired effect before too long.  Of course whether it does or doesn’t, you’ll read about it here.

Results update on Wednesday, but as a wee spoiler, some excellent betting advice this week from Weekly Golf Value. 🙂

So with the two golf winners the losing run was stopped and losses regained, so that from 1st April and after a few thousands of pounds staked, my overall profit and loss balance is essentially back to £0.  I guess with the proceeds made I might be able to buy a sandwich from the ‘Reduced’ section of Sainsbury’s (other supermarkets are available) that you find at the end of each day.  Or maybe not.

Not complaining.  Can’t complain when you have two of your tipsters throwing up winners on the golf.  But it would be really nice to push on.  This year has definitely lagged behind last year to date, and it would be good to land a few good wins (he says, stating the absolute obvious!).

I had an email from a reader that addressed my strategy on the Lucky 15s and the relatively low turnover I’m achieving at the moment.  He made some really good points, and I’ll look to address these in next Monday’s Bet Diary post.  So tune in then.

In the meantime, here are the figures to date:

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 50.15pts, -12.8pts, roi -25.52%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -15.85pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips: Staked 13.05pts, -0.375pts, roi -2.87%, High: 3.65pts, DD: -4.025pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 13pts, +10.564pts, roi 81.23%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -3.466pts, Max DD: -4.589pts.

Golf: Staked 1,486pts, -188.63pts, roi -12.69%, High: 0pts, DD: -188.63pts, Max DD: -581.59pts.

Lucky 15s: Staked 70pts, +4.65pts, roi 7.02%, High: 12.554pts, DD: -7.904pts, Max DD: -9.123pts.

NFL:

PGA Profit: Staked 111pts, -17.372pts, roi -15.65%, High: 37.704pts, DD: -55.076pts, Max DD: -55.076pts.

Value Bets: Staked 30.5pts, +7.4pts, roi 24.26%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -9.5pts, Max DD: -9.5pts.

TOTAL: roi 0.14%

Two wins – one on the PGA Tour and one on the European – over the weekend meant it was a good week overall.  I mentioned recently that with general turnover down at the moment, the impact of golf betting on the overall profit and loss line will be exaggerated.

Firstly, Edwards Tips carried on their solid recent form by picking out Adrian Meronk (23.0) who won by a solitary stroke in Italy.  That was followed on Sunday evening by Weekly Golf Value hitting on Wyndham Clarke (70.0) who after a bit of a wobble in his final round ended up running out a comfortable winner.  Adding to the profit for WGV was Tyrrell Hatton who finished third.

There were a couple of other placed golfers for WGV too, another in the US and one in Europe so all in all an excellent week.  Only PGA Profit blanked and it’s only a matter of time before that hits on a winner.

One last observation today.  Those of you who place the odd football coupon bet in the bookies.  How often do you hand over the coupon, they stick it through the reader and it reads your bet accurately first time?  My experience – never!  The number of times they have to put it through numerous times, or add to the already exaggeratedly colouring in of the box indicating which team is being backed, or something…

It’s all very well, but this rigmarole in William Hill last week, meant I missed a bet on a DD/HH bet in the BetFred opposite, just because it took about ten minutes to get the bet on.  Pathetic!

Figures update on Wednesday.

Not a great week all told.  As ever though in this game, it’s always a fine margin between success and failure, profit and loss.  Had Sergio Garcia won his play-off to win the LIV Golf tournament on Sunday, instead of losing it, the week would have ended in the black.  He didn’t, and so it was a pretty red week all told.  But then, if my uncle had b*@l!, he’d be my Aunitie.  Or something like that.

So this is turning into one of those tricky periods where things aren’t clicking, and we hand a bit of money back to the arch enemy bookmakers.  The situation is made worse by the fact that as explained last week, playing and coaching cricket through the week is having an impact on getting bets on.  The number of bets and turnover is notably down from the norm, and that always leaves you vulnerable.

Take the DD/HH strategy.  I was only able to get involved in one match last week, had two bets, and neither won.  And that was it.  Same with picking out value bets.  Just one bet all week – a loser.

All I can do is plug away.  We all know it will turn, it’s just a matter of when.

Betting 2023-24

DD/HH: Staked 50.15pts, -12.8pts, roi -25.52%, High: 3.05pts, DD: -15.85pts, Max DD: -15.85pts.

Edwards Tips: Staked 9.75pts, -1.476pts, roi -15.14%, High: 3.65pts, DD: -5.126pts, Max DD: -5.126pts.

Football Coupons: Staked 13pts, +10.564pts, roi 81.23%, High: 14.03pts, DD: -3.466pts, Max DD: -4.589pts.

Golf: Staked 1,250pts, -581.59pts, roi -46.52%, High: 0pts, DD: -581.59pts, Max DD: -581.59pts.

Lucky 15s: Staked 70pts, +4.65pts, roi 7.02%, High: 12.554pts, DD: -7.904pts, Max DD: -9.123pts.

NFL:

PGA Profit: Staked 91pts, +2.628pts, roi 2.88%, High: 37.704pts, DD: -35.076pts, Max DD: -35.076pts.

Value Bets: Staked 30.5pts, +7.4pts, roi 24.26%, High: 16.9pts, DD: -9.5pts, Max DD: -9.5pts.

TOTAL: roi -7.97%

This year, sadly, I’ve not yet been able to report back on a big Lucky 15 win from the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker..  It will come.  It is just a matter of time, but the thing we don’t know is how much time.  It could be today we get a huge win, it could be next week, month, or not until next year!

I saw someone comment that he feels the strategy centres around concentrating on breaking more or less even for a period of time, and then profiting from a Lucky 15 that brings big rewards.  If I look back on my own records from when I started following the strategy last February, I can see where this chap is coming from.  In 2022, covering almost ten months of placing Lucky 15s, I made a very nice profit indeed.  I grew my initial investment nine times, although those figures are skewed a little by reinvesting the profit and upping stakes, but even allowing for that an ROI of 68% was spectacular.  But breaking things down further, all of the profit was essentially garnered from six bets.  Two gave big four figure returns.  This year, I’ve not had one that has done so.

Last Bank Holiday Monday, I placed seven Lucky15s.  I had winners at 14/1, 12/1 and 11/1.  There were also a series of placed horses at decent prices, but because of the spread of these across the seven bets, I made only around four points profit.  Those big winning bets last year netted around 100 points profit each, which provides some context.

The point I’m making is that there will come a day like the last Bank Holiday, but when the winners and placed horses cluster into one Lucky 15, and that’s when the profit line takes a leap.  Until then, it’s just a case of plugging away, a few losses here, a few small gains there, more or less breaking even as we go.  The test is a mental one.  I’ve found that driving around to different shops is a bit of a grind at times.  The odd big win would really help with the motivation.  It’s maintaining the belief and focus that it will come, that provides the motivation at the moment to just keep plugging away.

Figures update on Wednesday, although no winner on the golf (although Edwards Tips came mightily close with Sergio Garcia who lost a play-off on the LIV Tour) means it’s been another week that just ended in the red.  In other words, it’s been another week grinding away, staying patient, staying focused, and retaining belief.