I’ve had the pleasure this week of listening to two great podcasts.  I do love me a good podcast.  Stick the airpods in, take the mutt out for a walk, and fill the ears with excellent #content.

The first was the SBC’s very own interview with Anthony Kaminskas, successful punter turned bookmaker, and owner/founder of the new (launched just prior to Cheltenham) online bookmaker site, AKBets.  Now listening to this Anthony struck me as a workaholic.  Seriously, what his average working day must look like right now is something else.  But far from being a frazzled wreck that someone with so much on his plate has a right to be, he came across as commercially savvy, well-intentioned, and principled, whilst also as someone who doesn’t suffer gambling fools lightly.  And by gambling fools, I mean those who seek to take the proverbial with the way they go about their betting and perhaps not playing as fairly as they might.

Of course, it’s natural that the notion of fair play and bookmakers is a little difficult to get your head around.  We’re so conditioned now to the bigger bookmakers doing everything but play fair, that it’s very easy to just tar all with the same brush.  But Anthony convinced me that he is determined to be different (and for how long have we been saying that there must be a niche within the bookmaking market for someone who actually looks to lay their customers a good bet at a fair price and not to play funny buggers when it comes to processing withdrawals and the rest?).  A lot of what he has to say in the interview brought to mind the “old fashioned” bookmaker principles – no gimmicks, but straight dealing, offering a price and accepting bets at that price, even from a “sharp” customer.

I wish AK the very best of luck.  If he’s successful, then I believe punters will benefit as well, and that can only be a good thing.

The second podcast is Tom Brownlee’s Bookie Bashing “Bashcast”.  Never has a podcast struck so many chords with me as this one.  The first section castigating those that pinch car parking spaces marked out for those with children made me laugh, remembering my own encounters with the selfish gits that follow such an evil course, and the same with those that leave shopping trolleys where they shouldn’t be left.  If that’s you, hang your head with shame, I say!

To hear Tom’s enthusiasm for exploiting Bet Fred’s DD/HH concession was good too.  This, to date, has been my most lucrative source of betting income this year, and Tom’s dead right in that it’s a fun bet to place.  When your guy scores the first goal, the rest of the match makes for compulsive viewing.  Mind you, I’ve also placed a bet just before kick off and by the time I’d got back to my car, parked less than a minute away, the bet had gone down.  Them’s the breaks, I guess.

German Nick Bachem, not a golfer I’d heard of before, sealed his place in my own personal betting Hall of Fame by winning the DPWT Tour event in South Africa yesterday.  He wasn’t a normal, run of the mill winner (is there such a thing on the golf?)…BUT A TWICE TIPPED, DOUBLED-UP, PUTTING GOD SENT TO EARTH TO SAVING MY BETTING WORLD!!!!!

Or something.

On a serious note, it’s always very pleasing indeed when a golfer lands the spoils and more than one tipster has given it, although it made for a nervous Sunday morning.  I’m usually a believer in not over-checking how things are going but I’ve got to admit to that self-imposed rule going right out the window.  Trouble was, the tournament wasn’t being televised, so it was a case of refreshing the Flashscores site every hour…erm…15 minutes…

So well done indeed to Weekly Golf Value, which after a prolonged losing spell has now hit two winners in as many weeks, and to Edwards Tips.  I wouldn’t say the gloss and sheen were dimmed any, but I noted that Edwards Tips had Bachem at 160/1.  I place all my golf bets on the Wednesday evening as being restricted to the Exchanges, I’ve found that earlier than that and I’m struggling for liquidity on the longer priced players.  Oh well, such is life.  I managed to get 75 on the winner, and taking a glass half full approach that was longer than the 70/1 advised price for WGV.

Pleased to report a winning weekend with the Football Coupons too, and although this was just enough to start the process of clawing back recent losses, it was pleasing to at least take a step in the right direction.

I’ll post updated figures on Wednesday.  Until then…

Can’t for the life of me remember which film the headline quote is from.  It was a western, I know that, and not long after those words were spoken, than all sorts of bedlam between the goodies (white hats) and baddies (black hats) broke out.  Whatever film it was, they don’t make them like that any more…

How was Cheltenham for you?

Got to say, it completely passed me by.  I was expecting there to be lots of Lucky 15s to be placed, but to be honest by the time lunchtime came around each day and I could get to the bookies, there was very little by way of value available.

This in a nutshell, demonstrated the difference in value available in shops and that which can be exploited online.  When I looked at the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker there was tons of good looking bets available at the likes of Skybet and Bet 365. With enhanced place terms never has the disparity been more stark.

To be fair, had I been able to get to my nearest BetFred around 10.30/11.00 each morning, I’d have been fine and would have got a fair few bets down.  But I couldn’t.  It has crystallised in my mind the need for someone to be able to put bets on for me at the appropriate times.  I have someone in mind, but I can’t do anything to facilitate this just yet.  Course work is getting in the way, and if I were to affect that and its execution in any way at all, Mum would be on at me in no uncertain terms (and right enough!).

I’m acutely conscious that this is proving to be a relatively quiet time for me.  No league football this weekend )seriously, which muppet thought an international break at this point in the season is a good idea!?), not much footie at all the last couple of days, a couple of quiet days racing with fairly mundane meetings post-Cheltenham….I’m left with the golf.  With three tournaments this week, there’s enough to be getting stuck into there at least.

So a quiet spell.

Let’s see what the next few days bring.

A very, very quiet week (more on that on Wednesday) and a no-betting weekend for me as I took my by far better half away for the weekend.  I’d booked a lovely pub/hotel up in Lancashire, left on Friday and haven’t struck a bet since.

What this does mean however, is that I’ve no slips to pick up and so I can provide a results update today.

The golf last night made for very exciting viewing as two Weekly Golf Value bets – Adam Schenk and Taylor Moore – finished in the Top 3.  But there was a real tussle throughout the final round with Jordan Spieth (PGA Profit’s win-only pick) sharing the lead with Schenk at various stages.  Anyway, Moore ran out the winner whilst practicing on the range in preparation for a play-off and it’s great to see the latest golf drawdown halted.  I managed to get odds of 70 on the Exchanges for Moore so although my place returns wouldn’t have been so great, I made more on the win part of the bet (tipped at 60/1).  Schenk would have been the bigger win for me, but I ain’t complaining!

A small profit over the past couple of weeks on the Lucky 15s so again, nice to see the losing run halted there too.  And the DD/HH strategy continues to pay dividends with another couple of winners since the last results post.  I keep saying they’re running hot and the streak can’t continue, but so far it has!  So I’ll say it again this week – they’re running hot and the streak can’t continue.

A few Value Bets struck and it was a particularly good week last week on these.  Looking to get more of them down using the shops and the Exchanges so watch this space.  It was interesting listening to the recent SBC podcast with Ryan Bruno and hearing him talk of what I’m sure is a very similar (if not identical) approach from him.

The only dark points really are PGA Profit who can’t find one to place just at the moment, and the Football Coupons.  The number of slips with seven teams on them with permed trebles and getting no return at all from is miserable.

BB Golf Tracker: Staked 2,121pts, -312.18pts, roi -14.71%.

PGA Profit: Staked 123pts, -112.52pts, roi -91.47%.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 465pts, -139.88pts, roi -30.08%.

BB Lucky 15s: Staked 77pts, -13.38pts, roi -17.37%.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 71pts, -23.75pts, roi -33.45%.

NFL: Staked 100pts, +367.13pts, roi +367.13%.

DD/HH: Staked 846pts, +615.25pts, roi 72.68%.

Well, I still can’t bring you the updated figures for this past week.  Not in their entirety anyway.  But there is a story behind why not.

Monday night I get in the car, in the piddling rain, to drive the six miles or so to my nearest William Hill.  There looks to be value on a football coupon I can back, and besides, there are about six slips I need to pick up the returns for, with amounts ranging from pennies to…well… a few more pennies.  Do that, and I can see exactly how the football betting had fared over the weekend, and I can do my admin and see where we stand.

So, I walk into the Hills where they know me.  I’m a regular.  They also know that nine times out of ten I’ll be putting a bet on the footie, and as I nod a quick “Alright, mate”, they see me walk over to where the various football coupons are displayed.  I imagine they then watch me – and smirk – as I take the ten minutes to fill in the relevant coupon (takes me longer than it should due to increasing age and failing eyes…but seriously, those little boxes in the green area of the ‘Team To Score’ coupon…what’s that all about?!?  I could be 30 years younger and still be squinting as I try to make sure I’m filling in the right box, so difficult are they to see properly!), but it’s not until I take it up to the counter, stake money in hand, before they tell me they can’t accept the bet.

Pre-conditioned as my brain is, I automatically jump to the conclusion that this is a personal thing and that I’m being restricted.  I must look really puzzled as seriously, anyone analysing my football coupon betting over recent weeks would not be refusing my bets, I can tell you that much for nothing!  Anyway, clocking my confusion, the chap points to his screen, and tells me with no lack of clarity in his choice of language, that “they’re fu&*!d, mate”.

He’s a big lad, this one, and I’m not going to do anything to upset him, so instead of letting him know what I thought about driving all this way, in the pouring rain, at a time when I should be sat at home with something warm to eat and alcoholic to drink, and that he could have told me before he watched me struggle to fill out a coupon, that all their computers were on the blink.  Instead – because he really is a big, big lad – I smile, make some sort of pathetically weak joke, and somehow make this whole sorry situation appear to be my fault in some way.

Anyway, before I know it, he’s come out on to my side of the counter, pointed towards one of the SSBT terminals, and said he’ll put the bet on for me through that.  Clearly, he’s trying to be very helpful and hats off to him for that, but as I’m standing next to him watching him put my money on the wrong teams at the wrong prices (clearly those green boxes aren’t only difficult for me to read!) whilst gleefully telling me stories of watching Sutton United (one of the teams I hadn’t wanted to back but which now had my money on) play at Grimsby and not letting me get a word in edgeways, I can’t help thinking this sort of thing surely can’t ever happen to anyone else.

I’m too nice.  The guy is really trying to help, and is obviously happy to talk to someone who isn’t either overly aggressive because he’s just done his dough on the slots, too drunk to talk coherently, or stoned (I always come out of that shop feeling slightly more chilled than I did when I went in…must be something in the atmosphere) and so I let him stick my money on a football coupon with an EV more negative than an Antonio Conte team’s midfield.

And to cap it all off, I couldn’t pick up my returns because they had no computer to process them, and therefore still don’t know what they add up to and where I’m at.

An appropriate finish to this story would be that all seven teams on the coupon won and oh, the irony, blah, blah, blah.

But that didn’t happen.  Not by a long way.  Seems that coupon only had the names of losing teams on it…

If it’s ok with you, I’m going to switch my posts, with Monday’s BD post giving some general thoughts and observations and Wednesday’s post carrying the latest betting figures.  The only reason is I’m finding it difficult to pick up the returns from the various slips I’ve placed over the weekend in time to then update the figures and write this post on a Monday evening.  And rather than post best estimates on returns, better to be accurate.  Mind you, it’s not too taxing to add up actual profit at the moment on account as there isn’t any!

Cheltenham

Is it really Cheltenham week?  Got to admit, it doesn’t feel like it to me.

I’m so used to following tipsters through Cheltenham week, and then posting updates in here race by race.  Jumping on bets with the online books after digesting the Racing Post over breakfast, watching the morning Cheltenham show on the telly, and generally getting as excited as a kid at Christmas.  Not this year.  I haven’t even booked the time off work, and it is a little sad that the way my betting has evolved through necessity to using the shops has had such a fundamental impact on this week.

No point in moaning about it, and looking on the positive side, I’m expecting there to be much more value available at lunchtime – when I can get to the shops – with which to make up a number of Lucky 15s courtesy of the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker.  

Having said that, I seem to remember Cheltenham last year providing me with slim returns on my Lucky 15s and being glad when normal racing resumed.  No logic to that, by the way, and hopefully this year will be different.

If you’re able to sit down and enjoy the Festival, I wish you the best.  Lucky beggars!

NFL Strategy

I’ve had a query this week from a reader who wanted to know what the NFL service is that I’m reporting figures from.

The answer is it isn’t a service in itself.  At the risk of sounding a little obsessed with the Bookie Bashing service (it does very heavily influence my betting now, to be fair), it is the NFL strategy you can find on their website that utilises the HT/FT markets.  It’s all there, and free to read.  Basically it involves backing at significantly better odds than the mathematics tells us they should be, and this season proved to be quite lucrative.  Have at it.

So, back on Wednesday with a results update.  Until then, may the first two days of the Festival bring you everything you hoped for!

I posted on Monday that despite the fact that last week had been another that ended in a loss, I was feeling much better about things.  Why is that?  What’s changed to help build confidence?

A couple of things, really.  First, although the Lucky 15s (break even) and the Football Coupons (small loss) didn’t produce the goods, some horses were beginning to place and we started to get three or four winning teams from the seven on the footie.  This meant a series of small losses or a break even bet, and the odd one produced a small profit, but it was the fact that the seemingly endless run of no horse placing and maybe just one winner from seven teams on a coupon ended.

When you have seven teams on a coupon at prices including the odd 1.4 shot, and then a number around 2.0 and none of the beggars wins, it can be a little demoralizing.  As can horse after horse after horse finishing outside the frame.  When you get the odd winner and a couple to place, you can suddenly see why it is a matter of time before the stars align and a pretty decent win is landed.  Who knows how long that period of time will be?  But at least you can see it is just a waiting game we’re playing and that helps with finding the required patience.

The other major stabilising factor, for me anyway, is that for the first time this year, I do feel as though I have a settled strategy.  I know which golfers I’m going to back, which coupons I’m going to look to exploit, and which horses I’m going to back.

The transition from online soft bookmakers to cash in shops has been a more difficult one to adjust to than I had anticipated, if I’m being honest.  But at last I reckon I’m getting there.  Once you know exactly what opportunities you’re going to look for and why, I think it’s easier to exercise the required patience through the drawdowns.  When you’re feeling your way, not entirely sure of your approach, then I think seeing a lot of losing bets is harder to take.

I feel I’ve settled into a rhythm now.  All we need now is some profit!

That’s my tuppence worth anyway.

I can’t leave this post without mentioning the weekend’s footie.  As an Arsenal fan, the end of Saturday’s game was something else.  Quite why the FA are investigating the celebrations at the end, I really don’t know.  What are they trying to do?  Police emotion?  “Look at those people having fun and expressing theie joy at a sporting event for which they’ve paid a lot of money to go to.  And as for those players!  How dare such young lads who are in the midst of the season of their lives, with so much at stake, all show such emotion at scoring a winner in the 97th minute having been two goals down just 20 minutes earlier!”

Seriously, FA.  In the words of Gary Neville…”do one”!

Perhaps in the interest of not losing any Manchester United supporting readers, I’ll leave my reflections on Sunday’s game before I even start them…

Quick results update for you.

It’s felt like a better week despite the fact that it’s been another losing one, and the wait for things to turn continues.  More about this and why, on Wednesday.

In the meantime, here are the figures…

BB Golf Tracker: Staked 1,525pts, -438.48pts, roi -28.75%.

PGA Profit: Staked 73pts, -62.52pts, roi -85.64%.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 465pts, -139.88pts, roi -30.08%.

BB Lucky 15s: Staked 66pts, -15.73pts, roi -23.83%.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 55pts, -17.27pts, roi -31.11%.

NFL: Staked 100pts, +367.13pts, roi +367.13%.

DD/HH: Staked 554pts, +501.75pts, roi 90.56%.

TOTAL ROI: -14.06%.

Another winning week for the DD/HH strategy courtesy of Bookie Bashing and their Tracker, and Bukayo Saka (oh how I love that lad!) and Demarai Gray (Everton fans will know why I feel he owed me a favour after last season’s game at Goodison Park – I guess next season I’ll have a winner with Tarkowski!).

No joy really for PGA Profit but a profit for the first time for me from Edwards Tips golf advice.  There’ll be more to come I’m sure, and I couldn’t help that this week was one in which it could easily have netted a big winner.

Right, I’ve managed to bring all the figures up to date up to and including yesterday, the last day of the second month of the year.  And it’s fair to say that February in particular has been a bit crap and as a result the year itself hasn’t really got going yet.

Here are the numbers:

BB Golf Tracker: Staked 1,225pts, -204.16pts, roi -16.69%.

PGA Profit: Staked 38pts, -33.06pts, roi -87%.

Edwards Tips (Golf): Staked 255pts, -204.18pts, roi 80.07%.

BB Lucky 15s: Staked 55pts, -15.15pts, roi -27.72%.

BB Football Coupons: Staked 48.5pts, -14.12pts, roi -29.12%.

NFL: Staked 100pts, +367.13pts, roi +367.13%.

DD/HH: Staked 473pts, +351.75pts, roi 74.36%.

TOTAL ROI: -16.52%.

It really hasn’t been a great month at all.  Only the Double Delight/Hat Trick Heaven bets have generated a profit, and when you look at the ROI figures for each strand of the portfolios it doesn’t make for pretty viewing.

Let’s break it all down a bit though.

To be fair to PGA Profit and Edwards Tips, it’s really only been a couple of golf tournaments covered and so the sample size as it were, is very small.  And to be fair to the others, two months of betting is really nothing in the grand scheme of things.  Just as I’m telling myself that the hot streak that has been enjoyed by DD/HH can’t possibly last, nor should the cold streaks of everything else.  Of course the psychology of this is interesting – it is very easy to pessimistically view the bets that are going great guns (ie. they’re due a downturn) AND pessimistically view the losing bets (are they EVER going to turn around).  So, the best approach to my eyes is not to ponder on the psychology and just keep betting!

Looking back at my figures last year, this drawdown in its entirety is almost exactly equal that of my largest drawdown suffered in 2022.  There’s nothing other than short term negative variance hitting here, I reckon.  And in each of themselves, the different sources of bets have hardly reached a crisis point in their own individual banks.  The Lucky 15 bank is only 15% down, the Football Coupons less than 10%, the Golf Tracker bets just a shade over 10% – it’s just that each are losing simultaneously which makes things a little gloomy.  But we’re an awful long way away from panic stations.

I guess it would be nice to see some returns come through to provide reassurance that I can make a good profit from betting in shops and on exchanges.  I haven’t yet, and like anything, once you’ve seen something work, it’s much easier to have faith.  What I would say is that after a period of adjustment going into the new year, leaving soft, online bookmaker accounts behind me and stepping into a new world, I at last feel settled in my approach and staking.  So now it’s just a case of getting on with it, grinding away, and fingers crossed March will be the start of a decent run.

Let’s see.