Before I start my ramblings, may I just express the hope that you have come through these past few months fit and well, and family members, friends and colleagues likewise. The virus has not yet been eradicated and we must naturally continue to be wary and act appropriately, but we have reached a point now where sport is returning – albeit in some unfamiliar guises – and there’s plenty to bet on. The light at the end of the tunnel is shining ever more brightly and is growing stronger and stronger with each passing day.
We had Royal Ascot last week, the return of the Premier League, and football in other major European leagues has returned too. No doubt the tipsters we all follow, who have endured an enforced period of hibernation that perhaps has granted an opportunity to take stock of their methods and strategies, will all have been champing at the bit to get going again. I know I was with my own betting, and yet as things stand, I have not struck a bet since lockdown began.
My own, and I stress very personal view, is that June would be used as a period of waiting for form and fitness to settle a little and watching to see if there were any fundamentals associated with betting on a sport that had shifted at all. It’s been interesting to note the huge increase in the percentage of away wins in the Bundesliga since that league rebooted, the theory being that without the pressure home fans exert on referees to influence decisions (subconsciously, before any referee reading gets their knickers in a twist!) and the momentum that vociferous support can provide a home team, means that “home advantage” is not currently a thing. You take my point? I’m not saying this is fact, but if there’s something to it then the relative percentage chance of each outcome of a match will have shifted a little. In such a climate of uncertainty, I’d rather keep my money in my wallet.
Same with the racing. How have different stables been able to operate through lockdown and social distancing and the subsequent difficulties of running a yard? All I’m sure will have adapted, but the nature of things is that some will have adapted better than others. Consequently their horses will be fitter than those from yards who have found working through a pandemic more of a struggle, but whose horses might previously have shown superior form. This is purely anecdotal, but I’ve heard from a few who have said that their betting performance since racing resumed has been awful. It could of course simply be short term variance at play, the law of Sod kicking; as we finally have something to bet on, that cruel mistress wakes herself up from her own lockdown slumbers, yawns, stretches, and wreaks betting havoc.
So, my plan is to start betting again on the 1st of July. A nominal date and there’s nothing scientific about choosing that particular day to get going again. It just appeals to my vague tendency towards OCD – new month, new start, etc. All nonsense of course. But that’s the way I roll… 🙂
See you next week.