My wife has always said I have a tendency to over-think and over-analyze things. Experience over the years tells me she is probably right. She is about most things, I’ve found.
Certainly this week has seen me looking to come to a settled plan as to how to move forward. The reason for this is that being brutally honest, betting using cash only in the shops is proving to be more tricky than I’d anticipated. Take one morning last week as an example. Early doors the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker is showing there’s a nice looking Lucky 15 to be had down my local BetFreds. Hop in the car for the 1.5 mile journey that usually takes five minutes. Half an hour later I’m still stuck in the car because due to local roads flooding, the traffic was a ‘mare. I had to turn around and come home because I needed to be at my work desk. Not great.
Then there has been a relative lack of value to shop prices and place terms showing up on the Golf Tracker. Then there’s been race meetings being rained or frozen off. There’s simply been one reason followed by another for not getting anywhere near the volume of bets I want to be getting down. So all in all, this last week I’ve felt has been one of the most challenging I think I’ve had for a long, long time.
But this is where the over-analyzing comes in. I’ve had two completed weeks of betting this year, and both have been profitable. Not spectacularly so, but put it this way…if I could take the profit I’ve had in each of these two weeks and guarantee that amount every week, then I would have a pretty decent year. I’m at 13% ROI, for heaven’s sake. Hardly a disaster!
That said, I do need to think of solutions.
In the short term, I’m turning to the Exchanges for my golf betting and will be looking to increase returns from the win-part of each way bets. This is going to test patience. It can be a long time between drinks for winners on the golf, but when they come I need to cash in. I will still cover the place part of the bet, but the value won’t be there to turn a profit longer term I don’t think. What I’m hoping it will do – using the Top 5 and 10 markets – is serve to smooth out the journey, even if by just a little. So in other words, sacrifice a bit off the bottom line to maintain some grip, even if only a weak one, on some level of sanity.
The above is great, but not ideal. So, solution number 2 is to set up some accounts with the independent bookies the SBC have recently identified as being possible options. Who knows how long these accounts will last, but I’m thinking of limiting their use to golf betting and “muggy” looking combo bets (with the hope these will increase account longevity). I want to set up a bank account for this though to keep funds separate, so will take a couple of days or so to sort.
Solution 3 – get a Runner up and, well, err…running. Someone I can trust, someone with access to bookies shops, and with plenty of time on their hands. My son. I can trust him (because if he did anything daft I’d not let him come home again), he can almost fall out of his flat and roll into one of two BetFreds and a Paddy Power (seriously, they are that close), and he’s a student (so let’s face it, the available time isn’t going to be a problem is it, the lazy, do-nothing-all-day tax dodging layabouts!). But again, need to sort out bank account, cash card, etc. He could be useful for some online, golf-only bookmaker accounts too – we’ll see.
And finally, possible Solution 4 – different services. I mentioned last week Edwards Tips and I’ve been getting used to how this all works to minimal stakes (so small there’s no point on reporting figures just yet). I like the look of it, have had to accept from what I’ve seen so far that I can’t get on anywhere near all the bets because of my current restriction to the Exchanges, and it has plenty of potential. I’ve also my eye on another but hopefully more on that anon.
So, plenty going on, just not much actual betting! But I’m up for the year so far, and being up is never a position to complain about.
See you next week.