It’s been a while, but the NFL Half Time/Full Time strategy came good on Sunday evening.  I mentioned last week that I’d got one Half Time Draw to land, but then the team I needed to go on to win, didn’t!

This week, the Cleveland Browns did me proud, although not without a ridiculously tense end to their game.  They went ahead with a Field Goal with just 42 seconds left on the clock.  I guess my upbringing on football automatically leads me to believe 42 seconds is nothing.  In NFL, it’s a lifetime.  Anyway, it all ended well and gave the week a much needed boost.

Elsewhere, literally nothing remarkable happened.  So I shan’t remark, other than to say it was all a bit boring.  Nothing lost much, but nothing won much either.  Just one of those weeks.

This week has got off to a brighter start, but more on that in my next post.

In the meantime, here are the figures…

AI Football: Staked 1,621pts, -180.32pts, ROI: -11.12%, ROC: -18.02%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,622.50pts, +144.81pts, ROI: 3.99%, ROC 9.65%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 7,496pts, +1,012.27pts, ROI: 13.5%, ROC: 50.61%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 7,650pts, +1,095.26pts, ROI: 14.31%, ROC: 73.01%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 4,013.50pts, +317.62pts, ROI: 7.91%, ROC: 15.88%

DD/HH: Staked 1,467.5pts, +402pts, ROI: 27.39%, ROC: 40.2%.

NFL strategy: Staked 1,067pts, -74.67pts, ROI: -6.99%, ROC: -7.46%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,784.80pts, -229.52pts, ROI:-3.96%, ROC: -11.47%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 820pts, +219.45pts, ROI: 26.76%, ROC: 21.94%

TOTAL ROI: 8.25%

It’s that time of year again, isn’t it, when we start to look back at the previous 12 months and reflect on what has gone well and what perhaps, not so well?

I remember writing in these pages, not long after the turn of the year, that something I was a little anxious about for 2023 was the “progression” of my betting into the shops using cash and the Exchanges, and away from online, soft bookmakers.  The well of accounts had run dry.  Even now, and only through happy circumstance and a coming of age within the family that has meant that some funds have been directed back to the latter, have I regained any sort of exposure to the soft books.  90% of my betting remains channelled through the shops and offices of Messrs Fred and W.Hill esquire.

Frankly, the impact this has had on what was by far my most profitable strategy of 2022 – the Lucky 15s derived from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker – has proven to be huge.  The level of bank growth achieved through 2022 has been decimated and the ROI left a fraction of what it was.

And yet…

…I am absolutely delighted with the outcome, with my ability to maintain a fantastic level of profit and at an ROI that I can say has pleasantly surprised me.

This past week has seen 100% bank growth achieved for 2023 from the Lucky 15s (and yes, before anyone says anything I know it could oh so easily dip below that figure again before the week is out).  The ROI is at a shade north of 15%.  Allowing for the considerably larger stakes that can be got down in the shops than I could ever get down online, this has been a genuine triumph.

2022 was outstanding for the Lucky 15s.  My ROI for the year was 68.1%, and ROC at 602%.  But quite honestly, having the likes of Skybet and Bet 365 to bet at, with their BOG (originally) and extra places available, it was like printing money.  2023 has been harder work, clearly, but to double the (bigger) bank and to be getting to a 15% ROI is something I’m incredibly happy about, and in all honesty, relieved to see.

And here’s the thing.  I had four bets in 2022 that provided almost, or more than a 100 point profit.  Big wins.  This year, I’ve had one that coughed up 50 points (a nice win) but that’s it.  This year has instead seen what has been an almost quiet accumulation of profit.  No fireworks, just plenty of sparklers.

But the biggest difference is that it has felt much more sustainable.  Whenever I make a profitable bet, I don’t worry that that’s my account gone.  True, having not hit the “jackpot” Lucky 15 which might mean the bookmaker involved playing funny buggers when it comes to paying out by insisting on seeing wage slips from the ‘paper round I did in 1986, I guess I’ve had it easy.  But let’s cross that bridge if and when it arrives.

So, to conclude, the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker and the Lucky 15 strategy remains the foundation stone of my betting.  Who knows what will happen in 2024 with it.  It could be a losing year.  But let’s not worry about that right now.

It was a decent enough week last week, with the total return ending up at 13.8% ROI.  But oh, what could have been.

I made what turned out to be a daft decision to ignore the Invitational golf event over in the US.  Weekly Golf Value put up two bets, and I backed neither.  Yup, you can guess the rest.

Best performer by some distance was the Lucky 15s from the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker.  Again, no huge win or anything, but just a sequence of solid returns including one on Saturday that had four placed horses.  The ROI for this strategy since April now stands at a sliver below 15%, and yet I can say that I’ve not had one massive pay out.  More on this later this week.

What feels like a long road back for AI Football has started.  A quiet week, but one that didn’t bring a loser from the five bets I was able to place (one I wasn’t).  Let’s hope this signifies the start of a return to form.

The NFL Half Time/Full Time strategy finally had a half time draw land.  It’s been a while.  Trouble is, the wrong team then went on to win, sinking the HT/FT double.  The difference between a small profit on the week and what would have been a sizeable one.  Whilst on the subject of NFL, Touchdown Profit went 2-1 to add to this season’s incredibly positive figures.

Here are the figures…

AI Football: Staked 1,428pts, -176.09pts, ROI: -12.33%, ROC: -17.6%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,622.50pts, +144.81pts, ROI: 3.99%, ROC 9.65%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 7,409pts, +1,075.89pts, ROI: 14.52%, ROC: 53.79%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 7,395pts, +1,108.42pts, ROI: 14.98%, ROC: 73.89%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 3,891pts, +339.36pts, ROI: 8.72%, ROC: 16.96%

DD/HH: Staked 1,390.5pts, +358pts, ROI: 25.74%, ROC: 35.8%.

NFL strategy: Staked 987pts, -227.34pts, ROI: -23.03%, ROC: -22.73%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,661pts, -150.76pts, ROI:-2.66%, ROC: -7.53%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 780pts, +220.44pts, ROI: 28.26%, ROC: 22.04%

TOTAL ROI: 8.45%

Very little to write about.  Just in the process of updating figures but have now done so up until the end of November which you will see below.

Last week prior to the weekend really was something of a damp squib.  Just one Lucky 15 bet struck, and very little action elsewhere.  Weather hasn’t helped.  The weekend was more interesting and so I’ll post again tomorrow to bring you completely up to date.

AI Football: Staked 1,348pts, -206.47pts, ROI: -15.31%, ROC: -20.64%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,622.50pts, +144.81pts, ROI: 3.99%, ROC 9.65%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 7,312pts, +1,089.99pts, ROI: 14.9%, ROC: 54.49%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 7,170pts, +983.06pts, ROI: 13.71%, ROC: 65.53%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 3,841pts, +389.36pts, ROI: 10.13%, ROC: 19.46%

DD/HH: Staked 1,365.5pts, +383pts, ROI: 28.04%, ROC: 38.3%.

NFL strategy: Staked 927pts, -245.94pts, ROI: -26.53%, ROC: -24.59%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,583pts, -143.5pts, ROI:-2.57%, ROC: -7.17%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 720pts, +204.77pts, ROI: 31.99%, ROC: 20.47%

TOTAL ROI: 8.33%

NOT, a good week.  In fact, the very opposite of good.  BAD.  Very bad indeed.

I’m going to keep this update fairly short, and summarize thus…

No return from any bet at all last week from:

Bookie Bashing Value Bet Tracker (obviously only the ones I bet on – I’m sure others will have backed winners from this, and probably made a profit).

DD/HH strategy.

NFL half time/full time strategy – after an early return, it’s been a while.  This can be so frustrating as frequently the failure to get a draw at half time and therefore set up the full time double when it’s happy days, is just one score.  I still can’t forget the missed extra point after a touchdown that thwarted one of these bets.

Sys Analyst – Allan provided a results update recently.  I have no worries at all here.  The service has been there and done it in terms of recovering from drawdowns, many times over.

Add to the above and a loss too for the Bookie Bashing Lucky 15s strategy, no winner on the golf, and a loss too for AI Football which also sent out a missive to members apologising for the recent poor form (no need to apologise chaps, as we know, this happens), and you can see it was not a fun week.  Even the ever reliable Touchdown Profit went 1-3 for a loss!

All we can do is accept these weeks/months happen, and keep plugging away.  So that is what I shall do.

Have a good weekend!

AI Football: Staked 1,328pts, -186.47pts, ROI: -14.04%, ROC: -18.64%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,622.50pts, +144.81pts, ROI: 3.99%, ROC 9.65%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 7,040pts, +1,157.84pts, ROI: 16.44%, ROC: 57.89%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 7,155pts, +981.42pts, ROI: 13.71%, ROC: 65.42%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 3,746pts, +424.36pts, ROI: 11.32%, ROC: 21.21%

DD/HH: Staked 1,365.5pts, +383pts, ROI: 28.04%, ROC: 38.3%.

NFL strategy: Staked 927pts, -245.94pts, ROI: -26.53%, ROC: -24.59%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,583pts, -143.5pts, ROI:-2.57%, ROC: -7.17%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 720pts, +204.77pts, ROI: 31.99%, ROC: 20.47%

TOTAL ROI: 8.84%

Had to get a new laptop at the back end of last week.  Old one finally gave up the ghost. and it kinda brought a lot of stuff to a juddering halt.  You don’t realise how much you rely on something until it’s gone.  But, when a new one arrives it’s like that feeling you get when you clean your glasses.  That is, wow, I can see properly again.  In the way that any spectacle wearers will be able to relate too, to now have a laptop that fires up instantly is a revelation.  No longer do I have to press the <On> button and then go and make a hot drink to give it the time to get going.

Anyway, have been conscious that I hadn’t posted my results last week, so here they are.

AI Football: Staked 1,176pts, -143.99pts, ROI: -12.24%, ROC: -14.39%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,622.50pts, +144.81pts, ROI: 3.99%, ROC 9.65%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 6,750pts, +1,313.84pts, ROI: 19.46%, ROC: 65.69%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 6,930pts, +1,081.51pts, ROI: 15.6%, ROC: 72.1%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 3,636pts, +534.36pts, ROI: 14.69%, ROC: 26.71%

DD/HH: Staked 1,306pts, +430pts, ROI: 32.92%, ROC: 43%.

NFL strategy: Staked 847pts, -165.94pts, ROI: -19.59%, ROC: -16.59%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,483pts, -43.5pts, ROI:-0.79%, ROC: -2.17%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 640pts, +204.77pts, ROI: 31.99%, ROC: 20.47%

TOTAL ROI: 10.31%

It was a good week for…

The Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value with a winner in Nicolai Hojgaard backed at both the bookies (25/1) and on the Exchange (34.0).  I remember it was about this time last year that WGV went on a golfing hot streak to end all hot streaks.  Wouldn’t it be lovely if it repeated the trick!?!

The Bookie Bashing Lucky 15 Racing Tracker strategy.  Agaiu, no huge win (yet), but just a good, solid performance with a number of slipes providing a decent-ish return.  15% ROI is more than acceptable.  In fact, it’s bloomin’ excellent.

It was a bad week for…

The Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker/Value Bets. I think I wrote the previous week that these were due a correction and that the ROI still remains as high as 14% despite my barely having a winning bet speaks volumes.

The laptop situation slowed down turnover last week, although I was able to get plenty enough down using my ‘phone.  Wish I hadn’t bothered to be honest, but I’ll post up the results in my next post later in the week, once I’ve caught up and updated the records. Been a pretty poor showing though.

Weekly Golf Value gave us Nicolai Hojgaard in the season ending DPWT World Tour Championship, and backed at 25/1 plus three others that placed meant that golf produced the goodies this week.  That I also had money on the Exchange at 34.0 meant Sunday evening drinks all round.  Lovely stuff.

Joe’s figures from using the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker:

Bets: 239

Tournaments: 18

Winners: 6

Placed: 27

ROI: 60.49%.

Nice work if you can get it!

What isn’t working is his Betfair Sportsbook account.  After a grand total of five golf bets, of which none have  won and only one place, he could get only £2.50 each way on a 125/1 shot last week.  This was taken from the Tracker at a slightly different time to the release of the WGV bets (not long before) so it can’t have been suspicions raised from a load of people jumping on one particular golfer at the same time.

I find this beyond pathetic in an industry that shows how pathetic it can be only too often.  Must have been no more than five golf bets placed on the account, not at a big level of staking, and one placed.  And after that…restrictions?

I guess I’d kinda forgotten how quickly online bookmakers can restrict and close accounts, and perhaps if there had been a load of bets on horses starting at a shorter SP than price taken, or were backed the night before, or were placed each way in eight runner non-handicaps, I could get my head around it a bit more.  But five golf bets taken in strong markets and no sign of a big return, to small stakes?  Nah.  That’s just crap.

Interestingly though, they took a Lucky 15 no problem on Saturday.  Let’s see how long we can do that for.

OK, hands up.  Who hates breaks in the football for internationals?  It is soooooooo tiresome.  If we could get rid of interlulls and VAR, the sporting world would be a much happier place.  Throw in John Terry, Teddy Sheringham, and Cristiano Ronaldo’s neck and goal celebration into the same sporting bin, well….we’d have close to Nirvana.

A decent week, last week.  ROI of 16.7% all told.

It was a good week for…

Sys Analyst.

It’s fair to say that Sys Analyst has been on a bit of a run.  A ‘mare, as some might describe it.  To the extent where (sensibly, I feel) the staking levels were decreased a little whilst we waited for the inevitable recovery.  Two winners from three bets on  Saturday meant a really good profit, and if I hadn’t been such a nob, it would have been an even better week, but more on that below.

Despite the recent poor spell, I’m so pleased to have been given the opportunity to sign up to Sys Analyst this year.  I’ve learnt that Allan oozes a zen-like calm in the face of a drawdown, and that’s what you want from someone you’re investing in.  No panic, but no sense of complacency either.  Just an acceptance that it’s all part of the game we play, that we’ve seen countless painful drawdowns before and will do so again in the future…but if we just do what we know works, and stay calm,  history tells us we’ll see the good times roll again.

Bookie Bashing Bet Tracker

The Value Bets I’ve been taking from the Bet Tracker have been on a right old tear up.  Looking at my figures, over the last three weeks, I’ve struck 39 bets, 21 of which have been winners (!), and the ROI over this period is running at 55%.  This isn’t going to last, but let’s just say that I think some of the cashiers in the shops I go to to get these bets down think I’ve been blessed.  It’s max stake of a £100 quid on these as they’re mainly BetFred boosted prices we’re taking, but there’s more than one BetFred on my round. (Ed.: why can’t I find a “winking” emoji on WordPress, goddammit?)

DD/HH Strategy

And talking of BetFred, all hail Dominic Solanke, a sure fire Ballon D’or winner of the future.  To see him score first when I’d backed him for DD/HH against a Newcastle team I’m beginning to get the hump with (since when has two hands on the back of the defender as you jump for a header not been a foul?  Not that I’m bitter!) was great, but to then see him double up with a second was both properly profitable and funny.  (btw, Kieran Trippier getting involved with the fans at the end – what was all that about?  Are the fans really giving them a hard time?!?  Basically Newcastle are flying, so two defeats seems a bit premature to be getting all angtsy, no?).

It was a poor week for…

Golf.

No winner!?!  Not impressed…

Me, being a nob.

Managed to back the wrong Sys Analyst horse on Sunday.  Was on the mobile and fat fingers do from time to time what fat fingers do.  The Sys Analyst bet won.  Of course it did.

Last thing today, has everyone listened to the latest SBC podcast with Pete and  Josh?  I reckon the two of them are going to be the next Ant and Dec* (ie. two likeable chaps, but supporting the wrong teams).

But seriously, it’s a great listen, and if you haven’t yet, I strongly recommend you get it in your ears.

*or if you prefer: 

Morecambe & Wise?

The Two Ronnies?

The Krankies?

Rod and Emu? 

That isn’t supposed to happen.  Joe and myself are supposed to use the Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker and each Sunday revel in the return gained from a 50/1, 70/1, 100/1 or whatever winner.  That’s how it is supposed to work, and that is how it has been working.  But not this week.  Bugger.

A few placed, and before I get too uppity, here are Joe’s updated Golf Tracker figures:

Bets: 214

Tournaments: 16

Winners: 5

Placed: 23

ROI: 53.8%

Anyway, pressure is on.  He’d better get the winning golfer this week, or there’ll be recriminations!

On another note, I’ve not had a single bet today, and that feels a bit strange.  I genuinely can’t remember the last time that was, but with not football due to yet another interminable break for international football that I reckon the sum of those interested in it is zero, plus pretty low-standard racing fare…well there just hasn’t been anything to bet on.  Feels like Christmas!

Not much to add today.  Should be back on Wednesday for a full figures update.

-5.7% ROI for the week running 30th October to 5th November.  Running at 9.92% ROI since 1st April.

It was a good week for…

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker

As mentioned in my last post, Erik van Rooyen was a very welcome winner on Sunday evening in the week’s only golf tournament, or at least the only tournament that held interest in it from a betting point of view.  I tend to see the finish of US PGA events each Sunday as marking the end of the betting week, as I’ll be off to bed either at the end of it if managing to stay up, or halfway or further through the final round.

And so after what had been a pretty poor week up to that point, I was rescued somewhat by EvR’s triumph, and a bad week was transformed into a mediocre one.  With a number of golfers to finish in the places too, it was a darned fine week for the Tracker.

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker – Lucky 15s

Nothing spectacular in terms of winning slips last week, but the losers didn’t lose much and a semi-decent slip on Saturday meant a fair profit on the week.  It’s interesting (I feel, at least) that since April I’ve made over 60% in terms of bank growth, and yet I’ve only had one really good slip.  The Lucky 15s were spectacular for me last year, with four big wins, but this year has shown another way, more like quiet accumulation of profit.  Would be nice to get in another banger though.  Feeling it’s due.

It was a poor week for…

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons

Biggest culprit last week.  That 1/8 Charlton losing pick on a number of slips I mentioned, designed to give something to build successful trebles around, was pretty costly.

I really dislike taking in a slip for a pay out that can literally be a couple of quid.  Think I’d rather only two teams on the slip win and therefore I don’t need to bother.  I know – that’s my hang up!

AI Football

Having started with a proper bank (an experimental £1,000, adopting the “stake 2.5% of your bank” approach, ie. £25 per bet initially), and making some decent profit last week, this week was disappointing.  I’m now down to staking £20 per bet, which kind of tells the story.

NFL Strategy

This got off to an absolute stormer in Gameweek 1 of the new NFL season, but since then has failed to deliver.  Frustratingly I did get a half time draw last week, but the pre-game favourite, on who I had the Draw/Fav HT/FT double went and lost.  Muppets.

Poor week last week though, with five suitable games to get involved with, and no returns.  Thing is, the Maths is right, the odds are very firmly in my favour…just have to wait for the cards to fall in the way we want them to.

And an honourable mention to…

Touchdown Profit

Shock, horror, TP actually had a loser this week.  It had been a while!  Mind you, we’ll excuse it this week as the one loser was compensated for by two winners and another profitable week.  The ROI levels this service is hitting – not just this season but in the longer term – from such tight markets is exceptionally impressive.

And with that kiss of death, the figures…

AI Football: Staked 806pts, -91.79pts, ROI: -11.38%, ROC: -9.17%

Bookie Bashing Football Coupons: Staked 3,482.50pts, +103.85pts, ROI: 2.98%, ROC 6.92%

Bookie Bashing Golf Tracker/Weekly Golf Value: Staked 6,164pts, +1,068.43pts, ROI: 17.33%, ROC: 35.61%

Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker (Lucky 15s): Staked 6,450pts, +934.02pts, ROI: 14.48%, ROC: 62.26%.

Bookie Bashing Value Bets Tracker: Staked 3,056pts, +464.21pts, ROI: 15.19%, ROC: 23.21%

DD/HH: Staked 1,219.5pts, +306.50pts, ROI: 25.13%, ROC: 30.6%.

NFL strategy: Staked 747pts, -65.94pts, ROI: -8.82%, ROC: -6.59%

Sys Analyst: Staked 5,158.2pts, -166.31pts, ROI:-3.22%, ROC: -8.31%

Touchdown Profit: Staked 540pts, +189.11pts, ROI: 35.02%, ROC: 18.91%

TOTAL ROI: 9.92%