287 Lucky 15 bets struck to one point level stakes.  379.6 points profit.  Return on Investment = 132.26%.

There are many things that go through my mind when I read the above stats.  The first of which, if you’ll excuse my French is, “Blo*dy Hell!”  Let’s give some kudos, love, and general salutations to the Bookie Bashing Racing Tracker for enabling me to produce such results.  The commitment I feel like giving to these guys – who you realise put a HUGE amount of work into what they provide for their followers – possibly reaches the levels I’ve given to my wife of the last 23 years!  If I had to split from one, I reckon I’d have to give some serious thought as to which! (I’m joking my love, should you ever read this – as far as I know, no-one at BB can make a Sunday roast to rival yours. Although if they did…)

The second thought is that I’m doing something wrong; that I’ve somehow stumbled across some superior method of picking which +EV horses put up by the Tracker to include in my Lucky 15s, which has resulted in such incredible success.  I know this is ridiculous and clearly not true.  But when last week’s Lucky 15, that had three winners at 14/1, 9/1, and 5/1, plus a placed horse at 12s) came in, just for a minute or two I thought this must be the case.  For those wondering, I pick which horses to include based on a very simple suggestion you can read in the SBC’s full review of the service.  There really is nothing different, or clever, about what I do when it comes to picking my horses.

Which brings me to my third thought.  The SBC advertise the review of the Tracker with a headline of, “The Lucky 15 strategy with a 27% ROI” or something very similar.  If my BB Racing Tracker results were gained from an investment in shares within a certain sector of the stock market, I’d be expecting the 132% ROI “bubble” to burst any time soon – anyone remember the Tech Bubble crash of 2000?  In essence, performance level is going to have to start reverting to the mean (wherever that is – 27% ROI?) at some point, and I can’t shake off the feeling that time is likely to be soon.

And final thoughts…I’m going to have to change my strategy.  This run has proven to be too much for a couple of online books now.  I knew this was coming, but now I need to react.  How?  By using cash and going to the shops.  This in itself presents challenges.  I do work, after all.  But nothing worth pursuing in life comes without the need to overcome obstacles.  And to be honest, what BB are providing and it’s ongoing potential, is worth pursuing.

I’m pretty confident that Tom Brownlees and his crew at BB will fair pretty well when it comes around to the SBC Betting awards next year and receive due recognition.  To my mind at present, they should be up for honourable knighthoods, free season tickets at the Arsenal for life (there is no greater reward!), and Freedom of the City of London if they so choose.  Not only for the service they provide, but for what Tom did in hand with our very own SBC Pete, for what they did for all of us who used 10bet to back Trey Mullinax recently.

Guys, from me, for all your efforts… Thank you.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 148pts, -11.73pts, roi -7.92%, roc -11.73%, High 0pts, DD -11.73pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 276.875pts, -20.627pts, roi -7.44%, roc -25.33%, High 0pts, DD -20.627pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 287pts, +379.6pts, roi 132.26%, roc 379.6%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

It was the World Matchplay Championship last week and On The Oche did what On The Oche does and went about issuing a small number of value bets that returned a decent enough profit.  It has now hot a new profit high for 2022.

Perhaps more remarkable is the tremendous consistency the service has hit this year.  I take it I’ve missed a few picks that have been sent out on Saturdays, so my figures are not going to replicate everyone else’s, but for me the “deepest” drawdown this year from 54.5 points staked, is, wait for it…-2.05 points!

That seems faintly ridiculous.  Not sure it even qualifies as a drawdown.  What it is though, is OTO’s consistency of approach, selectivity, and patience.  Well done, them!

I’m fully aware of course, that by typing these words I’m likely condemning OTO to the mother of all drawdowns.  I sincerely hope not, but if that happens, you fellow OTO disciples out there know who to blame.  I’m just glad none of you know where I live!

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 54.5pts, +8.11pts, roi 14.88%, roc 27.03%, High 8.11pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 149.5pts, +5.299pts, roi 3.54%, roc 13.24%, High 6.606pts, DD -1.307pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 6.75%, ROC 12.61%

That’s a bit of a downbeat headline isn’t it?  Sorry, don’t mean to be.  But at the same time, it would be wrong of me to pretend that the golf betting is going swimmingly at the moment, because frankly it isn’t.

On the bright side, Golf Insider did tip up the winner of the DP World Tour event at 22/1, Ritchie Ramsay, but in all honesty with not so much as a sniff of a place return with any other selection the total profit was a mere 3.2 points.

As for everyone else, well I guess Weekly Golf Value was due a blank week after three consecutive winners, PGA Profit kept bets to a minimum (three) and there was no/very little by way of success for anyone else.  The Rainmaker needs a result badly, so to see an 80/1 shot finish in second to Ramsey by just one stroke was a little sobering.

So all in all, not a great week despite backing a winner.

On we go…

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 271pts, -59.785pts, roi -22.06%, roc -29.89%, High 29.24pts, DD -89.025pts, Max DD -92.225pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 533.5pts, +38.79pts, roi 7.27%, roc 7.75%, High 119.24pts, DD -80.45pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 144pts, -53.27pts, roi -36.99%, roc -35.51%, High 19.614pts, DD -73.25pts, Max DD -73.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,777.5pts, +1,307.65pts, roi 47.05%, roc 65.38%, High 1,439.65pts, DD -132pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 748.5pts, -311.3pts, roi -41.58%, roc -77.82%, High 5.2pts, DD: -316.5pts, Max DD -316.5pts

Golf Totals: ROI -11.83%, ROC -17.86%

With no Bet Alchemist tips not on the Saturday, and with the quality of racing not that great through the week, it’s been pretty quiet over the last few days.

Northern Monkey consolidated recent gains and ended the week more or less level, and a nice, if not spectacular Bookiebashing Racing Tracker Lucky 15 on Sunday meant a bit more profit there.  Sadly, and the news of the week really, was my first lost bookmaker account as a result of the success I’ve enjoyed recently with the Tracker.  Of course, it may have been a cumulative thing and not this that made the “traders” review the account, but I’ve a sneaky suspicion it was.

We all know that like life itself, our accounts are destined to die (ie. be closed/heavily restricted) from the moment we open them.

“In this world, nothing can be said to be certain except death and taxes, and BetFred  closing your account at the earliest opportunity” – Benjamin Franklin, 1789.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 147pts, -12.43pts, roi -8.45%, roc -12.43%, High 0pts, DD -12.43pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 264.375pts, -16.736pts, roi -6.33%, roc -20.92%, High 0pts, DD -16.736pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 275pts, +336.12pts, roi 122.22%, roc 336.12%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 46.21%, ROC 97.61%.

Just the two sports bets placed last week, so really there is very little to report back on.  However, those two bets both being winners and both being tipped by The Poacher, means that last week’s good form has continued.  TP is only a point or so behind the high water mark for the year now for me.

Things are really quiet with the sports portfolio at the moment, so the fact that the ROI across the board has now climbed to a very reasonable 6.5% may have easily gone unnoticed.  If I finish the year with these services at that level of ROI, I’ll be delighted.

Not that long now until the start of the major European footie leagues and the NFL starting up again Stateside.  We should start to see a bit more betting action when that happens.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 51.5pts, +7.37pts, roi 14.31%, roc 24.56%, High 7.64pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 147.5pts, +5.29pts, roi 3.58%, roc 13.22%, High 6.606pts, DD -1.316pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 6.53%, ROC 11.87%

Cam Smith at 20/1 (would have got 22s had the relevant bookmaker not decided to close my account last week) brought up a fine hat-trick for Weekly Golf Value by winning The Open yesterday.  A splendid last round 64 sealed the deal, and it’s now getting a little tricky to think of anything new to say about the superb WGV service.  It has consistently delivered a fantastic profit since I started following last year.  I know I’m a conservative when it comes to betting.  I’d always prioritise having a good night’s sleep by sacrificing ROC figures and setting myself up with a betting bank the size of which acts as a comfort blanket through the poor runs.  And there have been one or two for WGV, relatively speaking.

However, that can’t be said for a couple of the other golfing tipsters I’m following at the moment.  The Rainmaker in particular is struggling, and my drawdown has now broached the -70% ROC mark.  I won’t quit it now.  If you set up a betting bank with which to follow a service, then to my mind you need to use it.  If the mentality at the start is to “write off” the money set aside, then why would you stop before you’ve lost it (barring any other logical reason such as a lack of odds availability, a change to an unproven methodology, etc.)?  I still maintain the hope that The Rainmaker pulls this around, and the beauty of golf as a betting medium is that the nature of the prices means that what seems like a level of loss that will never be recovered, it can be by hitting just two or three winners.

The Rainmaker isn’t the only one that’s struggling.  Both Tour Tips and Golf Insider are in “Deepest Drawdown” territory too.  The net result of all this is that despite the WGV winners, the golf portfolio as a whole is not where we would want it to be at this stage of the year.  This is not the time to panic however, to stick to principles, and ride it out.  Performance is disappointing, but it’s hardly disastrous.  Taking the total bank assigned to golf betting (the accumulated total of each service’s individual bank) and we see we’re at just -14.5%.  That comfort blanket is doing it’s job.

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 260pts, -62.985pts, roi -24.22%, roc -31.49%, High 29.24pts, DD -92.225pts, Max DD -92.225pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 519.5pts, +52.79pts, roi 10.16%, roc 10.55%, High 119.24pts, DD -66.45pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 138pts, -47.27pts, roi -34.25%, roc -31.51%, High 19.614pts, DD -67.25pts, Max DD -67.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,645.5pts, +1,439.65pts, roi 54.41%, roc 71.98%, High 1,439.65pts, DD -0pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 711.5pts, -291.3pts, roi -40.94%, roc -72.82%, High 5.2pts, DD: -296.5pts, Max DD -296.5pts

Golf Totals: ROI -10.02%, ROC -14.58%

If this was a trailer for a Hollywood film, this would be a tale of redemption.  Of fighting back when all seemed against us.  Of suffering through the insults and accusations that come from the desperate times, to emerge into the light against all odds with new hope, energy, and a higher ROI.

But this isn’t a film trailer, and I’m getting carried away with myself.  But I did ponder in last week’s Bet Diary post whether there were signs that Northern Monkey was beginning to recover its mojo.  Well lo and behold, at the big July Newmarket meeting last week, NMP hit upon a couple of really nice winners (16/1 and 11/1), came within a whisker of landing a 42 point winning multiple, and generally gave the strong impression of being a service that is back to winning ways.  I did get on some Saturday bets that were released earlier in the week, and didn’t get much joy and I believe Saturday overall wasn’t a great day.  But for me, a 13+ point profit on the week is very welcome indeed (missing all of Saturday’s losses almost makes up for the Saturday a few weeks ago when I missed out on a good profit, so it’s not as if I’m being ridiculously lucky!).

No spectacular winning Lucky 15 from the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker strategy, but a really solid profit again.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 147pts, -12.43pts, roi -8.45%, roc -12.43%, High 0pts, DD -12.43pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 253.25pts, -16.035pts, roi -6.33%, roc -27.95%, High 0pts, DD -16.035pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 262pts, +328.124pts, roi 125.23%, roc 328.12%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 46.8%, ROC 95.33%

A very, very quiet week for the sports section with On The Oche not having an event at which to put a bet up.  So it was left to the recently-suffering The Poacher to fill a void.

Four bets, four wins is a good way of filling a void!  And with those results come the sense that we might well be witnessing the first green shoots of recovery from our likeable footie tipster after what has been a bit of a lean time.  A profit of just over 2.5 points doesn’t sound a lot but represents bank growth of 6%, which isn’t at all bad in a week.

I’m really hoping this does represent the start of a prolonged spell of decent The Poacher form.  Continuing my theme of yesterday’s post, the hard work that clearly goes into the service deserves to be rewarded.

On The Oche (30pt bank): Staked 51.5pts, +7.37pts, roi 14.31%, roc 24.56%, High 7.64pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -2.05pts

The Poacher (40): Staked 145.5pts, +3.341pts, roi 2.29%, roc 8.35%, High 6.606pts, DD -3.265pts, Max DD -7.075pts

Touchdown Profit (50): Staked 11pts, +0.39pts, roi 3.54%, roc 0.78%, High 0.66pts, DD -0.27pts, Max DD -4pts

Sports Totals: ROI 5.69%, ROC 10.24%

Only one place to start this week and that’s with the imperious Weekly Golf Value which followed up last week’s 55/1 winner with Trey Mullinax, 175/1 winner of this week’s PGA Tour Barbasol Championship!  What a win that is!

If WGV were an athlete, I reckon it would be called in for a performance enhancing drugs test more times than I’ve had hot dinners.  A year to date ROI of 54% is, quite frankly, a bit ridiculous.

I’ve been listening to a couple of BashCasts this week (the Bookiebasher’s podcast).  Not only is it an entertaining listen, it’s fascinating to hear about edges, angles, and the creation and execution thereof.  The one thing that has really struck me though is how hard these people (that is, good tipsters and those that run good betting services) work.  It really is a labour of love for these folk.  It has to be.  The effort that goes into creating and maintaining an edge over the books is clearly huge, and I reckon if you don’t have a real passion for what it is you do, you have no chance.

From me to all these guys who work so hard for their clients…thank you!

Golf Insider (200pt bank): Staked 248pts, -57.635pts, roi -23.23%, roc -28.81%, High 29.24pts, DD -86.875pts, Max DD -86.875pts

PGA Profit (500): Staked 479.5pts, +84.54pts, roi 17.63%, roc 16.9%, High 119.24pts, DD -34.7pts, Max DD -127.01pts

European Tour (500): Staked 81.5pts, -65pts, roi -79.75%, roc -13%. High 0pts, DD -65pts, Max DD -65pts

Ben Coley (600): Staked 496pts, -110.79pts, roi -22.33%, roc -18.46%, High 79.93pts, DD -190.72pts, Max DD -190.72pts

Tour Tips (150): Staked 132pts, -41.27pts, roi -31.26%, roc -27.51%, High 19.614pts, DD -61.25pts, Max DD -61.25pts

Weekly Golf Value (2000): Staked 2,645.5pts, +1,439.65pts, roi 54.41%, roc 71.98%, High 1,439.65pts, DD -0pts, Max DD -435.75pts

The Rainmaker (400): Staked 691pts, -270.8pts, roi -39.18%, roc -67.7%, High 5.2pts, DD: -276pts, Max DD -282.6pts

Golf Totals: ROI -8.89%, ROC -12.4%.

The racing portfolio has been racing ahead of its Sports and Golf equivalents, but that has almost entirely been down to the excellence of the Bookiebashing Racing Tracker.  So it was really encouraging last week to see Northern Monkey show us the sort of form he is capable of, bagging over 12 points of profit.  I managed to get on a couple of Saturday bets too, as they were released early.  Every day of the week saw a profit of some sort from NMP, and I may have detected too some real optimism that the bad spell may be coming to an end.  I’ve said it before, but the midsummer months are traditionally the best for this service, and the signs are there that that may be a trend that continues this year.  Let’s hope so.

As for BB’s Racing Tracker, it was another very profitable week, with two bets doing the business (out of 21).  One saw no winners but all four place in the Lucky 15, and the other saw winners at 11/2, 9/2 and 11/1 alongside a loser.  Shame I had no BOG concession – the 11/1 winner went off at 18s!  Still, I’m not complaining.

Overall and the racing section is not too far off doubling its bank for the year, which in July I’m hugely satisfied by.  Of course that 87% could well go down, but with NMP looking like it’s returning to form, and the BB Tracker continuing to produce the goods, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

Bet Alchemist (100pt bank): Staked 142pts, -9.93pts, roi -6.99%, roc -9.93%, High 0pts, DD -9.93pts, Max DD -24.338pts

Northern Monkey (80): Staked 235.5pts, -29.384pts, roi -12.47%, roc -36.73%, High 0pts, DD -29.384pts, Max DD -45.043pts

The Value Bettor (40): Staked 9.75pts, +1.46pts, roi 14.97%, roc 3.65%, High 2.71pts, DD -1.25pts, Max DD -2pts

BB Racing Tracker (100): Staked 241pts, +312.929pts, roi 129.84%, roc 312.929%, High 0pts, DD 0pts, Max DD -13.388pts

Racing Totals: ROI 45.73%, ROC 87.03%.